P. J. Windischhofer

Lukas Heinrich, Siddharth Mishra-Sharma, Chris Pollard et al.

When analyzing real-world data it is common to work with event ensembles, which comprise sets of observations that collectively constrain the parameters of an underlying model of interest. Such models often have a hierarchical structure, where "local" parameters impact individual events and "global" parameters influence the entire dataset. We introduce practical approaches for frequentist and Bayesian dataset-wide probabilistic inference in cases where the likelihood is intractable, but simulations can be realized via a hierarchical forward model. We construct neural estimators for the likelihood(-ratio) or posterior and show that explicitly accounting for the model's hierarchical structure can lead to significantly tighter parameter constraints. We ground our discussion using case studies from the physical sciences, focusing on examples from particle physics and cosmology.

Chris Pollard, Philipp Windischhofer

Stochastic simulators are an indispensable tool in many branches of science. Often based on first principles, they deliver a series of samples whose distribution implicitly defines a probability measure to describe the phenomena of interest. However, the fidelity of these simulators is not always sufficient for all scientific purposes, necessitating the construction of ad-hoc corrections to "calibrate" the simulation and ensure that its output is a faithful representation of reality. In this paper, we leverage methods from transportation theory to construct such corrections in a systematic way. We use a neural network to compute minimal modifications to the individual samples produced by the simulator such that the resulting distribution becomes properly calibrated. We illustrate the method and its benefits in the context of experimental particle physics, where the need for calibrated stochastic simulators is particularly pronounced.