Enrico Zio

Yan-Fu Li, Enrico Zio

The current and future developments of electric power systems are pushing the boundaries of reliability assessment to consider distribution networks with renewable generators. Given the stochastic features of these elements, most modeling approaches rely on Monte Carlo simulation. The computational costs associated to the simulation approach force to treating mostly small-sized systems, i.e. with a limited number of lumped components of a given renewable technology (e.g. wind or solar, etc.) whose behavior is described by a binary state, working or failed. In this paper, we propose an analytical multi-state modeling approach for the reliability assessment of distributed generation (DG). The approach allows looking to a number of diverse energy generation technologies distributed on the system. Multiple states are used to describe the randomness in the generation units, due to the stochastic nature of the generation sources and of the mechanical degradation/failure behavior of the generation systems. The universal generating function (UGF) technique is used for the individual component multi-state modeling. A multiplication-type composition operator is introduced to combine the UGFs for the mechanical degradation and renewable generation source states into the UGF of the renewable generator power output. The overall multi-state DG system UGF is then constructed and classical reliability indices (e.g. loss of load expectation (LOLE), expected energy not supplied (EENS)) are computed from the DG system generation and load UGFs. An application of the model is shown on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder.

Yilin Wang, Yifei Yu, Kong Sun et al.

In industry, the reliability of rotating machinery is critical for production efficiency and safety. Current methods of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) often rely on task-specific models, which face significant challenges in handling diverse datasets with varying signal characteristics, fault modes and operating conditions. Inspired by advancements in generative pretrained models, we propose RmGPT, a unified model for diagnosis and prognosis tasks. RmGPT introduces a novel generative token-based framework, incorporating Signal Tokens, Prompt Tokens, Time-Frequency Task Tokens and Fault Tokens to handle heterogeneous data within a unified model architecture. We leverage self-supervised learning for robust feature extraction and introduce a next signal token prediction pretraining strategy, alongside efficient prompt learning for task-specific adaptation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RmGPT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms, achieving near-perfect accuracy in diagnosis tasks and exceptionally low errors in prognosis tasks. Notably, RmGPT excels in few-shot learning scenarios, achieving 82\% accuracy in 16-class one-shot experiments, highlighting its adaptability and robustness. This work establishes RmGPT as a powerful PHM foundation model for rotating machinery, advancing the scalability and generalizability of PHM solutions. \textbf{Code is available at: https://github.com/Pandalin98/RmGPT.

Shi-Shun Chen, Xiao-Yang Li, Enrico Zio

Soft sensor modeling plays a crucial role in process monitoring. Causal feature selection can enhance the performance of soft sensor models in industrial applications. However, existing methods ignore two critical characteristics of industrial processes. Firstly, causal relationships between variables always involve time delays, whereas most causal feature selection methods investigate causal relationships in the same time dimension. Secondly, variables in industrial processes are often interdependent, which contradicts the decorrelation assumption of traditional causal inference methods. Consequently, soft sensor models based on existing causal feature selection approaches often lack sufficient accuracy and stability. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a causal feature selection framework based on time-delayed cross mapping. Time-delayed cross mapping employs state space reconstruction to effectively handle interdependent variables in causality analysis, and considers varying causal strength across time delay. Time-delayed convergent cross mapping (TDCCM) is introduced for total causal inference, and time-delayed partial cross mapping (TDPCM) is developed for direct causal inference. Then, in order to achieve automatic feature selection, an objective feature selection strategy is presented. The causal threshold is automatically determined based on the model performance on the validation set, and the causal features are then selected. Two real-world case studies show that TDCCM achieves the highest average performance, while TDPCM improves soft sensor stability and performance in the worst scenario. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/dirge1/TDPCM.

Usevalad Milasheuski, Piero Baraldi, Enrico Zio et al.

Federated Learning (FL) has emerged as a promising paradigm for preserving client data ownership and control over distributed Internet of Things (IoT) environments. While discriminative models dominate most FL use cases, recent advances in generative models -- such as Variational Autoencoders (VAE), Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), and Diffusion Models (DM) -- offer new opportunities for unsupervised anomaly detection in time series analysis, with relevant applications in predictive maintenance (PdM) in critical industrial infrastructures. In this work, we present a comprehensive analysis of VAEs, GANs, and DMs in the context of federated PdM. We analyze their performance and communication overhead under both full and partial federation setups, where only subsets of model components are shared. Building on this analysis, the paper proposes a novel taxonomy for federated generative models that formalizes partial component sharing as a principled mechanism for model personalization. Our experiments over a real-world time series dataset reveal distinct trade-offs in model utility, stability, and scalability, especially in heterogeneous and bandwidth-constrained FL settings. For the evaluated GAN-based configurations, full federation improves training stability relative to independent local training, although the model remains less robust than the VAE- and DDPM-based alternatives. For DMs, however, partial federation -- especially decoder sharing -- can outperform full federation in bandwidth-constrained, non-IID settings.

Giovanni Floreale, Piero Baraldi, Enrico Zio et al.

Deep Learning (DL) models processing images to recognize the health state of large infrastructure components can exhibit biases and rely on non-causal shortcuts. eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) can address these issues but manually analyzing explanations generated by XAI techniques is time-consuming and prone to errors. This work proposes a novel framework that combines post-hoc explanations with semi-supervised learning to automatically identify anomalous explanations that deviate from those of correctly classified images and may therefore indicate model abnormal behaviors. This significantly reduces the workload for maintenance decision-makers, who only need to manually reclassify images flagged as having anomalous explanations. The proposed framework is applied to drone-collected images of insulator shells for power grid infrastructure monitoring, considering two different Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), GradCAM explanations and Deep Semi-Supervised Anomaly Detection. The average classification accuracy on two faulty classes is improved by 8% and maintenance operators are required to manually reclassify only 15% of the images. We compare the proposed framework with a state-of-the-art approach based on the faithfulness metric: the experimental results obtained demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently achieves F_1 scores larger than those of the faithfulness-based approach. Additionally, the proposed framework successfully identifies correct classifications that result from non-causal shortcuts, such as the presence of ID tags printed on insulator shells.

Saurabh Mishra, Anand Rao, Ramayya Krishnan et al.

As AI systems become integral to critical operations across industries and services, ensuring their reliability and safety is essential. We offer a framework that integrates established reliability and resilience engineering principles into AI systems. By applying traditional metrics such as failure rate and Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) along with resilience engineering and human reliability analysis, we propose an integrate framework to manage AI system performance, and prevent or efficiently recover from failures. Our work adapts classical engineering methods to AI systems and outlines a research agenda for future technical studies. We apply our framework to a real-world AI system, using system status data from platforms such as openAI, to demonstrate its practical applicability. This framework aligns with emerging global standards and regulatory frameworks, providing a methodology to enhance the trustworthiness of AI systems. Our aim is to guide policy, regulation, and the development of reliable, safe, and adaptable AI technologies capable of consistent performance in real-world environments.