Rhys Howard

Ricardo Cannizzaro, Rhys Howard, Paulina Lewinska et al. · oxford

Causal modelling offers great potential to provide autonomous agents the ability to understand the data-generation process that governs their interactions with the world. Such models capture formal knowledge as well as probabilistic representations of noise and uncertainty typically encountered by autonomous robots in real-world environments. Thus, causality can aid autonomous agents in making decisions and explaining outcomes, but deploying causality in such a manner introduces new challenges. Here we identify challenges relating to causality in the context of a drone system operating in a salt mine. Such environments are challenging for autonomous agents because of the presence of confounders, non-stationarity, and a difficulty in building complete causal models ahead of time. To address these issues, we propose a probabilistic causal framework consisting of: causally-informed POMDP planning, online SCM adaptation, and post-hoc counterfactual explanations. Further, we outline planned experimentation to evaluate the framework integrated with a drone system in simulated mine environments and on a real-world mine dataset.

Rhys Howard, Lars Kunze

Autonomous robots are required to reason about the behaviour of dynamic agents in their environment. The creation of models to describe these relationships is typically accomplished through the application of causal discovery techniques. However, as it stands observational causal discovery techniques struggle to adequately cope with conditions such as causal sparsity and non-stationarity typically seen during online usage in autonomous agent domains. Meanwhile, interventional techniques are not always feasible due to domain restrictions. In order to better explore the issues facing observational techniques and promote further discussion of these topics we carry out a benchmark across 10 contemporary observational temporal causal discovery methods in the domain of autonomous driving. By evaluating these methods upon causal scenes drawn from real world datasets in addition to those generated synthetically we highlight where improvements need to be made in order to facilitate the application of causal discovery techniques to the aforementioned use-cases. Finally, we discuss potential directions for future work that could help better tackle the difficulties currently experienced by state of the art techniques.

Rhys Howard, Lars Kunze

Being able to reason about how one's behaviour can affect the behaviour of others is a core skill required of intelligent driving agents. Despite this, the state of the art struggles to meet the need of agents to discover causal links between themselves and others. Observational approaches struggle because of the non-stationarity of causal links in dynamic environments, and the sparsity of causal interactions while requiring the approaches to work in an online fashion. Meanwhile interventional approaches are impractical as a vehicle cannot experiment with its actions on a public road. To counter the issue of non-stationarity we reformulate the problem in terms of extracted events, while the previously mentioned restriction upon interventions can be overcome with the use of counterfactual simulation. We present three variants of the proposed counterfactual causal discovery method and evaluate these against state of the art observational temporal causal discovery methods across 3396 causal scenes extracted from a real world driving dataset. We find that the proposed method significantly outperforms the state of the art on the proposed task quantitatively and can offer additional insights by comparing the outcome of an alternate series of decisions in a way that observational and interventional approaches cannot.

Enrik Maci, Rhys Howard, Lars Kunze

Validating the safety of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) operating in open-ended, dynamic environments is challenging as vehicles will eventually encounter safety-critical situations for which there is not representative training data. By increasing the coverage of different road and traffic conditions and by including corner cases in simulation-based scenario testing, the safety of AVs can be improved. However, the creation of corner case scenarios including multiple agents is non-trivial. Our approach allows engineers to generate novel, realistic corner cases based on historic traffic data and to explain why situations were safety-critical. In this paper, we introduce Probabilistic Lane Graphs (PLGs) to describe a finite set of lane positions and directions in which vehicles might travel. The structure of PLGs is learnt directly from spatio-temporal traffic data. The graph model represents the actions of the drivers in response to a given state in the form of a probabilistic policy. We use reinforcement learning techniques to modify this policy and to generate realistic and explainable corner case scenarios which can be used for assessing the safety of AVs.

Rhys Howard, Nick Hawes, Lars Kunze

Transparency and explainability are important features that responsible autonomous vehicles should possess, particularly when interacting with humans, and causal reasoning offers a strong basis to provide these qualities. However, even if one assumes agents act to maximise some concept of reward, it is difficult to make accurate causal inferences of agent planning without capturing what is of importance to the agent. Thus our work aims to learn a weighting of reward metrics for agents such that explanations for agent interactions can be causally inferred. We validate our approach quantitatively and qualitatively across three real-world driving datasets, demonstrating a functional improvement over previous methods and competitive performance across evaluation metrics.

Rhys Howard, Lars Kunze

In this work we aim to bridge the divide between autonomous vehicles and causal reasoning. Autonomous vehicles have come to increasingly interact with human drivers, and in many cases may pose risks to the physical or mental well-being of those they interact with. Meanwhile causal models, despite their inherent transparency and ability to offer contrastive explanations, have found limited usage within such systems. As such, we first identify the challenges that have limited the integration of structural causal models within autonomous vehicles. We then introduce a number of theoretical extensions to the structural causal model formalism in order to tackle these challenges. This augments these models to possess greater levels of modularisation and encapsulation, as well presenting temporal causal model representation with constant space complexity. We also prove through the extensions we have introduced that dynamically mutable sets (e.g. varying numbers of autonomous vehicles across time) can be used within a structural causal model while maintaining a relaxed form of causal stationarity. Finally we discuss the application of the extensions in the context of the autonomous vehicle and service robotics domain along with potential directions for future work.

Rhys Howard, Claudio Zito

This paper is concerned with learning transferable forward models for push manipulation that can be applying to novel contexts and how to improve the quality of prediction when critical information is available. We propose to learn a parametric internal model for push interactions that, similar for humans, enables a robot to predict the outcome of a physical interaction even in novel contexts. Given a desired push action, humans are capable to identify where to place their finger on a new object so to produce a predictable motion of the object. We achieve the same behaviour by factorising the learning into two parts. First, we learn a set of local contact models to represent the geometrical relations between the robot pusher, the object, and the environment. Then we learn a set of parametric local motion models to predict how these contacts change throughout a push. The set of contact and motion models represent our internal model. By adjusting the shapes of the distributions over the physical parameters, we modify the internal model's response. Uniform distributions yield to coarse estimates when no information is available about the novel context (i.e. unbiased predictor). A more accurate predictor can be learned for a specific environment/object pair (e.g. low friction/high mass), i.e. biased predictor. The effectiveness of our approach is shown in a simulated environment in which a Pioneer 3-DX robot needs to predict a push outcome for a novel object, and we provide a proof of concept on a real robot. We train on 2 objects (a cube and a cylinder) for a total of 24,000 pushes in various conditions, and test on 6 objects encompassing a variety of shapes, sizes, and physical parameters for a total of 14,400 predicted push outcomes. Our results show that both biased and unbiased predictors can reliably produce predictions in line with the outcomes of a carefully tuned physics simulator.