Liyan Xie

Yixuan Tan, Liyan Xie, Xiuyuan Cheng

The neural Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model has shown success in learning complex continuous-time processes from observations on discrete time stamps. In this work, we consider the modeling and forecasting of time series data that are non-stationary and may have sharp changes like spikes. We propose an RNN-based model, called RNN-ODE-Adap, that uses a neural ODE to represent the time development of the hidden states, and we adaptively select time steps based on the steepness of changes of the data over time so as to train the model more efficiently for the "spike-like" time series. Theoretically, RNN-ODE-Adap yields provably a consistent estimation of the intensity function for the Hawkes-type time series data. We also provide an approximation analysis of the RNN-ODE model showing the benefit of adaptive steps. The proposed model is demonstrated to achieve higher prediction accuracy with reduced computational cost on simulated dynamic system data and point process data and on a real electrocardiography dataset.

Liyan Xie, Muhammad Siddeek, Mohamed Seif et al.

Watermarking has become a key technique for proprietary language models, enabling the distinction between AI-generated and human-written text. However, in many real-world scenarios, LLM-generated content may undergo post-generation edits, such as human revisions or even spoofing attacks, making it critical to detect and localize such modifications. In this work, we introduce a new task: detecting post-generation edits locally made to watermarked LLM outputs. To this end, we propose a combinatorial pattern-based watermarking framework, which partitions the vocabulary into disjoint subsets and embeds the watermark by enforcing a deterministic combinatorial pattern over these subsets during generation. We accompany the combinatorial watermark with a global statistic that can be used to detect the watermark. Furthermore, we design lightweight local statistics to flag and localize potential edits. We introduce two task-specific evaluation metrics, Type-I error rate and detection accuracy, and evaluate our method on open-source LLMs across a variety of editing scenarios, demonstrating strong empirical performance in edit localization.

Aoran Zhang, Wenbin Zhou, Liyan Xie et al.

Time series data are crucial across diverse domains such as finance and healthcare, where accurate forecasting and decision-making rely on advanced modeling techniques. While generative models have shown great promise in capturing the intricate dynamics inherent in time series, evaluating their performance remains a major challenge. Traditional evaluation metrics fall short due to the temporal dependencies and potential high dimensionality of the features. In this paper, we propose the REcurrent NeurAL (RENAL) Goodness-of-Fit test, a novel and statistically rigorous framework for evaluating generative time series models. By leveraging recurrent neural networks, we transform the time series into conditionally independent data pairs, enabling the application of a chi-square-based goodness-of-fit test to the temporal dependencies within the data. This approach offers a robust, theoretically grounded solution for assessing the quality of generative models, particularly in settings with limited time sequences. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method across both synthetic and real-world datasets, outperforming existing methods in terms of reliability and accuracy. Our method fills a critical gap in the evaluation of time series generative models, offering a tool that is both practical and adaptable to high-stakes applications.

Jingge Wang, Yang Li, Liyan Xie et al.

Given multiple source domains, domain generalization aims at learning a universal model that performs well on any unseen but related target domain. In this work, we focus on the domain generalization scenario where domain shifts occur among class-conditional distributions of different domains. Existing approaches are not sufficiently robust when the variation of conditional distributions given the same class is large. In this work, we extend the concept of distributional robust optimization to solve the class-conditional domain generalization problem. Our approach optimizes the worst-case performance of a classifier over class-conditional distributions within a Wasserstein ball centered around the barycenter of the source conditional distributions. We also propose an iterative algorithm for learning the optimal radius of the Wasserstein balls automatically. Experiments show that the proposed framework has better performance on unseen target domain than approaches without domain generalization.

Shixiang Zhu, Alexander Bukharin, Liyan Xie et al.

Recently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has worked with other federal agencies to identify counties with increasing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence (hotspots) and offers support to local health departments to limit the spread of the disease. Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of hotspot events is of great importance to support policy decisions and prevent large-scale outbreaks. This paper presents a spatio-temporal Bayesian framework for early detection of COVID-19 hotspots (at the county level) in the United States. We assume both the observed number of cases and hotspots depend on a class of latent random variables, which encode the underlying spatio-temporal dynamics of the transmission of COVID-19. Such latent variables follow a zero-mean Gaussian process, whose covariance is specified by a non-stationary kernel function. The most salient feature of our kernel function is that deep neural networks are introduced to enhance the model's representative power while still enjoying the interpretability of the kernel. We derive a sparse model and fit the model using a variational learning strategy to circumvent the computational intractability for large data sets. Our model demonstrates better interpretability and superior hotspot-detection performance compared to other baseline methods.

Haoyun Wang, Liyan Xie, Yao Xie et al.

We present a new CUSUM procedure for sequentially detecting change-point in the self and mutual exciting processes, a.k.a. Hawkes networks using discrete events data. Hawkes networks have become a popular model for statistics and machine learning due to their capability in modeling irregularly observed data where the timing between events carries a lot of information. The problem of detecting abrupt changes in Hawkes networks arises from various applications, including neuronal imaging, sensor network, and social network monitoring. Despite this, there has not been a computationally and memory-efficient online algorithm for detecting such changes from sequential data. We present an efficient online recursive implementation of the CUSUM statistic for Hawkes processes, both decentralized and memory-efficient, and establish the theoretical properties of this new CUSUM procedure. We then show that the proposed CUSUM method achieves better performance than existing methods, including the Shewhart procedure based on count data, the generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) in the existing literature, and the standard score statistic. We demonstrate this via a simulated example and an application to population code change-detection in neuronal networks.

Haoyun Wang, Liyan Xie, Alex Cuozzo et al.

Multivariate Hawkes processes are commonly used to model streaming networked event data in a wide variety of applications. However, it remains a challenge to extract reliable inference from complex datasets with uncertainty quantification. Aiming towards this, we develop a statistical inference framework to learn causal relationships between nodes from networked data, where the underlying directed graph implies Granger causality. We provide uncertainty quantification for the maximum likelihood estimate of the network multivariate Hawkes process by providing a non-asymptotic confidence set. The main technique is based on the concentration inequalities of continuous-time martingales. We compare our method to the previously-derived asymptotic Hawkes process confidence interval, and demonstrate the strengths of our method in an application to neuronal connectivity reconstruction.

Shixiang Zhu, Liyan Xie, Minghe Zhang et al.

Learning a robust classifier from a few samples remains a key challenge in machine learning. A major thrust of research has been focused on developing $k$-nearest neighbor ($k$-NN) based algorithms combined with metric learning that captures similarities between samples. When the samples are limited, robustness is especially crucial to ensure the generalization capability of the classifier. In this paper, we study a minimax distributionally robust formulation of weighted $k$-nearest neighbors, which aims to find the optimal weighted $k$-NN classifiers that hedge against feature uncertainties. We develop an algorithm, \texttt{Dr.k-NN}, that efficiently solves this functional optimization problem and features in assigning minimax optimal weights to training samples when performing classification. These weights are class-dependent, and are determined by the similarities of sample features under the least favorable scenarios. When the size of the uncertainty set is properly tuned, the robust classifier has a smaller Lipschitz norm than the vanilla $k$-NN, and thus improves the generalization capability. We also couple our framework with neural-network-based feature embedding. We demonstrate the competitive performance of our algorithm compared to the state-of-the-art in the few-training-sample setting with various real-data experiments.

Anatoli Juditsky, Arkadi Nemirovski, Liyan Xie et al.

We introduce a new general modeling approach for multivariate discrete event data with categorical interacting marks, which we refer to as marked Bernoulli processes. In the proposed model, the probability of an event of a specific category to occur in a location may be influenced by past events at this and other locations. We do not restrict interactions to be positive or decaying over time as it is commonly adopted, allowing us to capture an arbitrary shape of influence from historical events, locations, and events of different categories. In our modeling, prior knowledge is incorporated by allowing general convex constraints on model parameters. We develop two parameter estimation procedures utilizing the constrained Least Squares (LS) and Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation, which are solved using variational inequalities with monotone operators. We discuss different applications of our approach and illustrate the performance of proposed recovery routines on synthetic examples and a real-world police dataset.

Rui Gao, Liyan Xie, Yao Xie et al.

We develop a novel computationally efficient and general framework for robust hypothesis testing. The new framework features a new way to construct uncertainty sets under the null and the alternative distributions, which are sets centered around the empirical distribution defined via Wasserstein metric, thus our approach is data-driven and free of distributional assumptions. We develop a convex safe approximation of the minimax formulation and show that such approximation renders a nearly-optimal detector among the family of all possible tests. By exploiting the structure of the least favorable distribution, we also develop a tractable reformulation of such approximation, with complexity independent of the dimension of observation space and can be nearly sample-size-independent in general. Real-data example using human activity data demonstrated the excellent performance of the new robust detector.

Liyan Xie, Yao Xie

We study the problem of detecting an abrupt change to the signal covariance matrix. In particular, the covariance changes from a "white" identity matrix to an unknown spiked or low-rank matrix. Two sequential change-point detection procedures are presented, based on the largest and the smallest eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix. To control false-alarm-rate, we present an accurate theoretical approximation to the average-run-length (ARL) and expected detection delay (EDD) of the detection, leveraging the extreme eigenvalue distributions from random matrix theory and by capturing a non-negligible temporal correlation in the sequence of scan statistics due to the sliding window approach. Real data examples demonstrate the good performance of our method for detecting behavior change of a swarm.

Yang Cao, Liyan Xie, Yao Xie et al.

Sequential change-point detection when the distribution parameters are unknown is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. When the post-change parameters are unknown, we consider a set of detection procedures based on sequential likelihood ratios with non-anticipating estimators constructed using online convex optimization algorithms such as online mirror descent, which provides a more versatile approach to tackle complex situations where recursive maximum likelihood estimators cannot be found. When the underlying distributions belong to a exponential family and the estimators satisfy the logarithm regret property, we show that this approach is nearly second-order asymptotically optimal. This means that the upper bound for the false alarm rate of the algorithm (measured by the average-run-length) meets the lower bound asymptotically up to a log-log factor when the threshold tends to infinity. Our proof is achieved by making a connection between sequential change-point and online convex optimization and leveraging the logarithmic regret bound property of online mirror descent algorithm. Numerical and real data examples validate our theory.