Soutir Bandyopadhyay

Sweta Rai, Douglas W. Nychka, Soutir Bandyopadhyay

Data derived from remote sensing or numerical simulations often have a regular gridded structure and are large in volume, making it challenging to find accurate spatial models that can fill in missing grid cells or simulate the process effectively, especially in the presence of spatial heterogeneity and heavy-tailed marginal distributions. To overcome this issue, we present a spatial autoregressive modeling framework, which maps observations at a location and its neighbors to independent random variables. This is a highly flexible modeling approach and well-suited for non-Gaussian fields, providing simpler interpretability. In particular, we consider the SAR model with Generalized Extreme Value distribution innovations to combine the observation at a central grid location with its neighbors, capturing extreme spatial behavior based on the heavy-tailed innovations. While these models are fast to simulate by exploiting the sparsity of the key matrices in the computations, the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is prohibitive due to the intractability of the likelihood, making optimization challenging. To overcome this, we train a convolutional neural network on a large training set that covers a useful parameter space, and then use the trained network for fast parameter estimation. Finally, we apply this model to analyze annual maximum precipitation data from ERA-Interim-driven Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations, allowing us to explore its spatial extreme behavior across North America.

I. Chittumuri, N. Alshehab, R. J. Voss et al.

This paper presents a risk analysis of flowlines in the oil and gas sector using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and machine learning (ML). Flowlines, vital conduits transporting oil, gas, and water from wellheads to surface facilities, often face under-assessment compared to transmission pipelines. This study addresses this gap using advanced tools to predict and mitigate failures, improving environmental safety and reducing human exposure. Extensive datasets from the Colorado Energy and Carbon Management Commission (ECMC) were processed through spatial matching, feature engineering, and geometric extraction to build robust predictive models. Various ML algorithms, including logistic regression, support vector machines, gradient boosting decision trees, and K-Means clustering, were used to assess and classify risks, with ensemble classifiers showing superior accuracy, especially when paired with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction. Finally, a thorough data analysis highlighted spatial and operational factors influencing risks, identifying high-risk zones for focused monitoring. Overall, the study demonstrates the transformative potential of integrating GIS and ML in flowline risk management, proposing a data-driven approach that emphasizes the need for accurate data and refined models to improve safety in petroleum extraction.

Sweta Rai, Alexis Hoffman, Soumendra Lahiri et al.

The heavy-tailed behavior of the generalized extreme-value distribution makes it a popular choice for modeling extreme events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, etc. However, estimating the distribution's parameters using conventional maximum likelihood methods can be computationally intensive, even for moderate-sized datasets. To overcome this limitation, we propose a computationally efficient, likelihood-free estimation method utilizing a neural network. Through an extensive simulation study, we demonstrate that the proposed neural network-based method provides Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameter estimates with comparable accuracy to the conventional maximum likelihood method but with a significant computational speedup. To account for estimation uncertainty, we utilize parametric bootstrapping, which is inherent in the trained network. Finally, we apply this method to 1000-year annual maximum temperature data from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) across North America for three atmospheric concentrations: 289 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$ (pre-industrial), 700 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$ (future conditions), and 1400 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$, and compare the results with those obtained using the maximum likelihood approach.