Chaopeng Shen, Alison P. Appling, Pierre Gentine et al.
Process-Based Modeling (PBM) and Machine Learning (ML) are often perceived as distinct paradigms in the geosciences. Here we present differentiable geoscientific modeling as a powerful pathway toward dissolving the perceived barrier between them and ushering in a paradigm shift. For decades, PBM offered benefits in interpretability and physical consistency but struggled to efficiently leverage large datasets. ML methods, especially deep networks, presented strong predictive skills yet lacked the ability to answer specific scientific questions. While various methods have been proposed for ML-physics integration, an important underlying theme -- differentiable modeling -- is not sufficiently recognized. Here we outline the concepts, applicability, and significance of differentiable geoscientific modeling (DG). "Differentiable" refers to accurately and efficiently calculating gradients with respect to model variables, critically enabling the learning of high-dimensional unknown relationships. DG refers to a range of methods connecting varying amounts of prior knowledge to neural networks and training them together, capturing a different scope than physics-guided machine learning and emphasizing first principles. Preliminary evidence suggests DG offers better interpretability and causality than ML, improved generalizability and extrapolation capability, and strong potential for knowledge discovery, while approaching the performance of purely data-driven ML. DG models require less training data while scaling favorably in performance and efficiency with increasing amounts of data. With DG, geoscientists may be better able to frame and investigate questions, test hypotheses, and discover unrecognized linkages.
Emanuele Francazi, Marco Baity-Jesi, Aurelien Lucchi
Data imbalance is a common problem in machine learning that can have a critical effect on the performance of a model. Various solutions exist but their impact on the convergence of the learning dynamics is not understood. Here, we elucidate the significant negative impact of data imbalance on learning, showing that the learning curves for minority and majority classes follow sub-optimal trajectories when training with a gradient-based optimizer. This slowdown is related to the imbalance ratio and can be traced back to a competition between the optimization of different classes. Our main contribution is the analysis of the convergence of full-batch (GD) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD), and of variants that renormalize the contribution of each per-class gradient. We find that GD is not guaranteed to decrease the loss for each class but that this problem can be addressed by performing a per-class normalization of the gradient. With SGD, class imbalance has an additional effect on the direction of the gradients: the minority class suffers from a higher directional noise, which reduces the effectiveness of the per-class gradient normalization. Our findings not only allow us to understand the potential and limitations of strategies involving the per-class gradients, but also the reason for the effectiveness of previously used solutions for class imbalance such as oversampling.
Emanuele Francazi, Aurelien Lucchi, Marco Baity-Jesi
Understanding and controlling biasing effects in neural networks is crucial for ensuring accurate and fair model performance. In the context of classification problems, we provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that the structure of a deep neural network (DNN) can condition the model to assign all predictions to the same class, even before the beginning of training, and in the absence of explicit biases. We prove that, besides dataset properties, the presence of this phenomenon, which we call \textit{Initial Guessing Bias} (IGB), is influenced by model choices including dataset preprocessing methods, and architectural decisions, such as activation functions, max-pooling layers, and network depth. Our analysis of IGB provides information for architecture selection and model initialization. We also highlight theoretical consequences, such as the breakdown of node-permutation symmetry, the violation of self-averaging and the non-trivial effects that depth has on the phenomenon.
Emanuele Francazi, Francesco Pinto, Aurelien Lucchi et al.
Normalization layers were introduced to stabilize and accelerate training, yet their influence is critical already at initialization, where they shape signal propagation and output statistics before parameters adapt to data. In practice, both which normalization to use and where to place it are often chosen heuristically, despite the fact that these decisions can qualitatively alter a model's behavior. We provide a theoretical characterization of how normalization choice and placement (Pre-Norm vs. Post-Norm) determine the distribution of class predictions at initialization, ranging from unbiased (Neutral) to highly concentrated (Prejudiced) regimes. We show that these architectural decisions induce systematic shifts in the initial prediction regime, thereby modulating subsequent learning dynamics. By linking normalization design directly to prediction statistics at initialization, our results offer principled guidance for more controlled and interpretable network design, including clarifying how widely used choices such as BatchNorm vs. LayerNorm and Pre-Norm vs. Post-Norm shape behavior from the outset of training.
Class imbalance (CI) is a longstanding problem in machine learning, slowing down training and reducing performances. Although empirical remedies exist, it is often unclear which ones work best and when, due to the lack of an overarching theory. We address a common case of imbalance, that of anomaly (or outlier) detection. We provide a theoretical framework to analyze, interpret and address CI. It is based on an exact solution of the teacher-student perceptron model, through replica theory. Within this framework, one can distinguish several sources of CI: either intrinsic, train or test imbalance. Our analysis reveals that the optimal train imbalance is generally different from 50%, with a non trivial dependence on the intrinsic imbalance, the abundance of data and on the noise in the learning. Moreover, there is a crossover between a small noise training regime where results are independent of the noise level to a high noise regime where performances quickly degrade with noise. Our results challenge some of the conventional wisdom on CI and offer practical guidelines to address it.
Cheng Chen, Sreenath Kyathanahally, Marta Reyes et al.
Modern plankton high-throughput monitoring relies on deep learning classifiers for species recognition in water ecosystems. Despite satisfactory nominal performances, a significant challenge arises from Dataset Shift, which causes performances to drop during deployment. In our study, we integrate the ZooLake dataset with manually-annotated images from 10 independent days of deployment, serving as test cells to benchmark Out-Of-Dataset (OOD) performances. Our analysis reveals instances where classifiers, initially performing well in In-Dataset conditions, encounter notable failures in practical scenarios. For example, a MobileNet with a 92% nominal test accuracy shows a 77% OOD accuracy. We systematically investigate conditions leading to OOD performance drops and propose a preemptive assessment method to identify potential pitfalls when classifying new data, and pinpoint features in OOD images that adversely impact classification. We present a three-step pipeline: (i) identifying OOD degradation compared to nominal test performance, (ii) conducting a diagnostic analysis of degradation causes, and (iii) providing solutions. We find that ensembles of BEiT vision transformers, with targeted augmentations addressing OOD robustness, geometric ensembling, and rotation-based test-time augmentation, constitute the most robust model, which we call BEsT model. It achieves an 83% OOD accuracy, with errors concentrated on container classes. Moreover, it exhibits lower sensitivity to dataset shift, and reproduces well the plankton abundances. Our proposed pipeline is applicable to generic plankton classifiers, contingent on the availability of suitable test cells. By identifying critical shortcomings and offering practical procedures to fortify models against dataset shift, our study contributes to the development of more reliable plankton classification technologies.
We applied machine learning methods to predict chemical hazards focusing on fish acute toxicity across taxa. We analyzed the relevance of taxonomy and experimental setup, showing that taking them into account can lead to considerable improvements in the classification performance. We quantified the gain obtained throught the introduction of taxonomic and experimental information, compared to classification based on chemical information alone. We used our approach with standard machine learning models (K-nearest neighbors, random forests and deep neural networks), as well as the recently proposed Read-Across Structure Activity Relationship (RASAR) models, which were very successful in predicting chemical hazards to mammals based on chemical similarity. We were able to obtain accuracies of over 93% on datasets where, due to noise in the data, the maximum achievable accuracy was expected to be below 96%. The best performances were obtained by random forests and RASAR models. We analyzed metrics to compare our results with animal test reproducibility, and despite most of our models "outperform animal test reproducibility" as measured through recently proposed metrics, we showed that the comparison between machine learning performance and animal test reproducibility should be addressed with particular care. While we focused on fish mortality, our approach, provided that the right data is available, is valid for any combination of chemicals, effects and taxa.
Plankton are effective indicators of environmental change and ecosystem health in freshwater habitats, but collection of plankton data using manual microscopic methods is extremely labor-intensive and expensive. Automated plankton imaging offers a promising way forward to monitor plankton communities with high frequency and accuracy in real-time. Yet, manual annotation of millions of images proposes a serious challenge to taxonomists. Deep learning classifiers have been successfully applied in various fields and provided encouraging results when used to categorize marine plankton images. Here, we present a set of deep learning models developed for the identification of lake plankton, and study several strategies to obtain optimal performances,which lead to operational prescriptions for users. To this aim, we annotated into 35 classes over 17900 images of zooplankton and large phytoplankton colonies, detected in Lake Greifensee (Switzerland) with the Dual Scripps Plankton Camera. Our best models were based on transfer learning and ensembling, which classified plankton images with 98% accuracy and 93% F1 score. When tested on freely available plankton datasets produced by other automated imaging tools (ZooScan, FlowCytobot and ISIIS), our models performed better than previously used models. Our annotated data, code and classification models are freely available online.
Mario Geiger, Stefano Spigler, Stéphane d'Ascoli et al.
Deep learning has been immensely successful at a variety of tasks, ranging from classification to AI. Learning corresponds to fitting training data, which is implemented by descending a very high-dimensional loss function. Understanding under which conditions neural networks do not get stuck in poor minima of the loss, and how the landscape of that loss evolves as depth is increased remains a challenge. Here we predict, and test empirically, an analogy between this landscape and the energy landscape of repulsive ellipses. We argue that in FC networks a phase transition delimits the over- and under-parametrized regimes where fitting can or cannot be achieved. In the vicinity of this transition, properties of the curvature of the minima of the loss are critical. This transition shares direct similarities with the jamming transition by which particles form a disordered solid as the density is increased, which also occurs in certain classes of computational optimization and learning problems such as the perceptron. Our analysis gives a simple explanation as to why poor minima of the loss cannot be encountered in the overparametrized regime, and puts forward the surprising result that the ability of fully connected networks to fit random data is independent of their depth. Our observations suggests that this independence also holds for real data. We also study a quantity $Δ$ which characterizes how well ($Δ<0$) or badly ($Δ>0$) a datum is learned. At the critical point it is power-law distributed, $P_+(Δ)\simΔ^θ$ for $Δ>0$ and $P_-(Δ)\sim(-Δ)^{-γ}$ for $Δ<0$, with $θ\approx0.3$ and $γ\approx0.2$. This observation suggests that near the transition the loss landscape has a hierarchical structure and that the learning dynamics is prone to avalanche-like dynamics, with abrupt changes in the set of patterns that are learned.
We analyze numerically the training dynamics of deep neural networks (DNN) by using methods developed in statistical physics of glassy systems. The two main issues we address are (1) the complexity of the loss landscape and of the dynamics within it, and (2) to what extent DNNs share similarities with glassy systems. Our findings, obtained for different architectures and datasets, suggest that during the training process the dynamics slows down because of an increasingly large number of flat directions. At large times, when the loss is approaching zero, the system diffuses at the bottom of the landscape. Despite some similarities with the dynamics of mean-field glassy systems, in particular, the absence of barrier crossing, we find distinctive dynamical behaviors in the two cases, showing that the statistical properties of the corresponding loss and energy landscapes are different. In contrast, when the network is under-parametrized we observe a typical glassy behavior, thus suggesting the existence of different phases depending on whether the network is under-parametrized or over-parametrized.