Francisco Rivas‐Ruiz

Javier Andreu-Perez, Humberto Pérez-Espinosa, Eva Timonet et al.

We seek to evaluate the detection performance of a rapid primary screening tool of Covid-19 solely based on the cough sound from 8,380 clinically validated samples with laboratory molecular-test (2,339 Covid-19 positives and 6,041 Covid-19 negatives). Samples were clinically labeled according to the results and severity based on quantitative RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) analysis, cycle threshold, and lymphocytes count from the patients. Our proposed generic method is an algorithm based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with subsequent classification based on a tensor of audio features and a deep artificial neural network classifier with convolutional layers called DeepCough'. Two different versions of DeepCough based on the number of tensor dimensions, i.e. DeepCough2D and DeepCough3D, have been investigated. These methods have been deployed in a multi-platform proof-of-concept Web App CoughDetect to administer this test anonymously. Covid-19 recognition results rates achieved a promising AUC (Area Under Curve) of 98.800.83%, sensitivity of 96.431.85%, and specificity of 96.201.74%, and 81.08%5.05% AUC for the recognition of three severity levels. Our proposed web tool and underpinning algorithm for the robust, fast, point-of-need identification of Covid-19 facilitates the rapid detection of the infection. We believe that it has the potential to significantly hamper the Covid-19 pandemic across the world.

Susan Athey, David Blei, Robert Donnelly et al.

This paper analyzes consumer choices over lunchtime restaurants using data from a sample of several thousand anonymous mobile phone users in the San Francisco Bay Area. The data is used to identify users' approximate typical morning location, as well as their choices of lunchtime restaurants. We build a model where restaurants have latent characteristics (whose distribution may depend on restaurant observables, such as star ratings, food category, and price range), each user has preferences for these latent characteristics, and these preferences are heterogeneous across users. Similarly, each item has latent characteristics that describe users' willingness to travel to the restaurant, and each user has individual-specific preferences for those latent characteristics. Thus, both users' willingness to travel and their base utility for each restaurant vary across user-restaurant pairs. We use a Bayesian approach to estimation. To make the estimation computationally feasible, we rely on variational inference to approximate the posterior distribution, as well as stochastic gradient descent as a computational approach. Our model performs better than more standard competing models such as multinomial logit and nested logit models, in part due to the personalization of the estimates. We analyze how consumers re-allocate their demand after a restaurant closes to nearby restaurants versus more distant restaurants with similar characteristics, and we compare our predictions to actual outcomes. Finally, we show how the model can be used to analyze counterfactual questions such as what type of restaurant would attract the most consumers in a given location.