Nikolas Geroliminis

Weijiang Xiong, Robert Fonod, Alexandre Alahi et al.

Traffic forecasting is a fundamental task in transportation research, however the scope of current research has mainly focused on a single data modality of loop detectors. Recently, the advances in Artificial Intelligence and drone technologies have made possible novel solutions for efficient, accurate and flexible aerial observations of urban traffic. As a promising traffic monitoring approach, drone-captured data can create an accurate multi-sensor mobility observatory for large-scale urban networks, when combined with existing infrastructure. Therefore, this paper investigates the problem of multi-source traffic speed prediction, simultaneously using drone and loop detector data. A simple yet effective graph-based model HiMSNet is proposed to integrate multiple data modalities and learn spatio-temporal correlations. Detailed analysis shows that predicting accurate segment-level speed is more challenging than the regional speed, especially under high-demand scenarios with heavier congestions and varying traffic dynamics. Utilizing both drone and loop detector data, the prediction accuracy can be improved compared to single-modality cases, when the sensors have lower coverages and are subject to noise. Our simulation study based on vehicle trajectories in a real urban road network has highlighted the added value of integrating drones in traffic forecasting and monitoring.

Zhixiong Jin, Dimitrios Tsitsokas, Nikolas Geroliminis et al.

In large-scale traffic optimization, models based on Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) are recognized for their efficiency in broad network analyses. However, they fail to reflect variations in the individual traffic status of each road link, leading to a gap in detailed traffic optimization and analysis. To address the limitation, this study introduces a Local Correction Factor (LCF) that represents local speed deviations between the actual link speed and the MFD average speed based on the link configuration. The LCF is calculated using a deep learning function that takes as inputs the average speed from the MFD and the road network configuration. Our framework integrates Graph Attention Networks (GATs) with Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) to capture both the spatial configurations and temporal correlations within the network. Coupled with a strategic network partitioning method, our model enhances the precision of link-level traffic speed estimations while preserving the computational advantages of aggregate models. In our experiments, we evaluate the proposed LCF across various urban traffic scenarios, including different levels of origin-destination trip demand and distribution, as well as diverse road configurations. The results demonstrate the robust adaptability and effectiveness of the proposed model. Furthermore, we validate the practicality of our model by calculating the travel time of each randomly generated path, achieving an average error reduction of approximately 84% relative to MFD-based results.

Semin Kwak, Nikolas Geroliminis, Pascal Frossard

Multivariate time series forecasting poses challenges as the variables are intertwined in time and space, like in the case of traffic signals. Defining signals on graphs relaxes such complexities by representing the evolution of signals over a space using relevant graph kernels such as the heat diffusion kernel. However, this kernel alone does not fully capture the actual dynamics of the data as it only relies on the graph structure. The gap can be filled by combining the graph kernel representation with data-driven models that utilize historical data. This paper proposes a traffic propagation model that merges multiple heat diffusion kernels into a data-driven prediction model to forecast traffic signals. We optimize the model parameters using Bayesian inference to minimize the prediction errors and, consequently, determine the mixing ratio of the two approaches. Such mixing ratio strongly depends on training data size and data anomalies, which typically correspond to the peak hours for traffic data. The proposed model demonstrates prediction accuracy comparable to that of the state-of-the-art deep neural networks with lower computational effort. It notably achieves excellent performance for long-term prediction through the inheritance of periodicity modeling in data-driven models.

Semin Kwak, Nikolas Geroliminis

Accurate prediction of travel time is an essential feature to support Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). The non-linearity of traffic states, however, makes this prediction a challenging task. Here we propose to use dynamic linear models (DLMs) to approximate the non-linear traffic states. Unlike a static linear regression model, the DLMs assume that their parameters are changing across time. We design a DLM with model parameters defined at each time unit to describe the spatio-temporal characteristics of time-series traffic data. Based on our DLM and its model parameters analytically trained using historical data, we suggest an optimal linear predictor in the minimum mean square error (MMSE) sense. We compare our prediction accuracy of travel time for freeways in California (I210-E and I5-S) under highly congested traffic conditions with those of other methods: the instantaneous travel time, k-nearest neighbor, support vector regression, and artificial neural network. We show significant improvements in the accuracy, especially for short-term prediction.