Maria Perez-Ortiz

Saleh Afroogh, Seyd Ishtiaque Ahmed, Petra Ahrweiler et al. · cmu

This study provides a cross-disciplinary examination of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) approaches-focusing on deep neural networks (DNNs) and large language models (LLMs)-and identifies empirical and conceptual limitations in current XAI. We discuss critical symptoms that stem from deeper root causes (i.e., two paradoxes, two conceptual confusions, and five false assumptions). These fundamental problems within the current XAI research field reveal three insights: experimentally, XAI exhibits significant flaws; conceptually, it is paradoxical; and pragmatically, further attempts to reform the paradoxical XAI might exacerbate its confusion-demanding fundamental shifts and new research directions. To move beyond XAI's limitations, we propose a four-pronged synthesized paradigm shift toward reliable and certified AI development. These four components include: verification-focused Interactive AI (IAI) to establish scientific community protocols for certifying AI system performance rather than attempting post-hoc explanations, AI Epistemology for rigorous scientific foundations, User-Sensible AI to create context-aware systems tailored to specific user communities, and Model-Centered Interpretability for faithful technical analysis-together offering comprehensive post-XAI research directions.

Sahan Bulathwela, Meghana Verma, Maria Perez-Ortiz et al.

This work explores how population-based engagement prediction can address cold-start at scale in large learning resource collections. The paper introduces i) VLE, a novel dataset that consists of content and video based features extracted from publicly available scientific video lectures coupled with implicit and explicit signals related to learner engagement, ii) two standard tasks related to predicting and ranking context-agnostic engagement in video lectures with preliminary baselines and iii) a set of experiments that validate the usefulness of the proposed dataset. Our experimental results indicate that the newly proposed VLE dataset leads to building context-agnostic engagement prediction models that are significantly performant than ones based on previous datasets, mainly attributing to the increase of training examples. VLE dataset's suitability in building models towards Computer Science/ Artificial Intelligence education focused on e-learning/ MOOC use-cases is also evidenced. Further experiments in combining the built model with a personalising algorithm show promising improvements in addressing the cold-start problem encountered in educational recommenders. This is the largest and most diverse publicly available dataset to our knowledge that deals with learner engagement prediction tasks. The dataset, helper tools, descriptive statistics and example code snippets are available publicly.

Noah Y. Siegel, Nicolas Heess, Maria Perez-Ortiz et al.

When asked to explain their decisions, LLMs can often give explanations which sound plausible to humans. But are these explanations faithful, i.e. do they convey the factors actually responsible for the decision? In this work, we analyse counterfactual faithfulness across 75 models from 13 families. We analyze the tradeoff between conciseness and comprehensiveness, how correlational faithfulness metrics assess this tradeoff, and the extent to which metrics can be gamed. This analysis motivates two new metrics: the phi-CCT, a simplified variant of the Correlational Counterfactual Test (CCT) which avoids the need for token probabilities while explaining most of the variance of the original test; and F-AUROC, which eliminates sensitivity to imbalanced intervention distributions and captures a model's ability to produce explanations with different levels of detail. Our findings reveal a clear scaling trend: larger and more capable models are consistently more faithful on all metrics we consider. Our code is available at https://github.com/google-deepmind/corr_faith.

Zekun Wu, Ze Wang, Seonglae Cho et al.

When a tool-calling agent picks the wrong tool, the failure is invisible until execution: the email gets sent, the meeting gets missed. Probing 12 instruction-tuned models across Gemma 3, Qwen 3, Qwen 2.5, and Llama 3.1 (270M to 27B), we find the identity of the chosen tool is linearly readable and steerable inside the model. Adding the mean-difference between two tools' average internal activations switches which tool the model selects at 77-100% accuracy on name-only single-turn prompts (93-100% at 4B+), and the JSON arguments that follow autoregressively match the new tool's schema, so flipping the name is enough. The same per-tool means also flag likely errors before they happen: on Gemma 3 12B and 27B, queries where the gap between the top-1 and top-2 tool is smallest produce 14-21x more wrong calls than queries with the largest gap. The causal effect concentrates along one direction, the row of the output layer that produces the target tool's first token: a unit vector along it at matched magnitude already reaches 93-100%, while what is left over leaves the choice almost untouched. Activation patching localises this to a small set of mid- and late-layer attention heads, and a within-topic probe across 14 same-domain $τ$-bench airline tools reaches top-1 61-89% across five 4B-14B models, ruling out the reading that we are just moving the model along a topic axis. Even base models encode the right tool before they can emit it: cosine readout from the internal state recovers 69-82% on BFCL while base generation reaches only 2-10%, suggesting pretraining forms the representation and instruction tuning later wires it to the output. We measure tool identity selection and JSON schema correctness in single-turn fixed-menu settings; multi-turn agentic transfer is more fragile and is discussed in Limitations.

Maria Perez-Ortiz

In an era marked by rapid technological advancements and complex global challenges, responsible foresight has emerged as an essential framework for policymakers aiming to navigate future uncertainties and shape the future. Responsible foresight entails the ethical anticipation of emerging opportunities and risks, with a focus on fostering proactive, sustainable, and accountable future design. This paper coins the term "responsible computational foresight", examining the role of human-centric artificial intelligence and computational modeling in advancing responsible foresight, establishing a set of foundational principles for this new field and presenting a suite of AI-driven foresight tools currently shaping it. AI, particularly in conjunction with simulations and scenario analysis, enhances policymakers' ability to address uncertainty, evaluate risks, and devise strategies geared toward sustainable, resilient futures. However, responsible foresight extends beyond mere technical forecasting; it demands a nuanced understanding of the interdependencies within social, environmental, economic and political systems, alongside a commitment to ethical, long-term decision-making that supports human intelligence. We argue that AI will play a role as a supportive tool in responsible, human-centered foresight, complementing rather than substituting policymaker judgment to enable the proactive shaping of resilient and ethically sound futures. This paper advocates for the thoughtful integration of AI into foresight practices to empower policymakers and communities as they confront the grand challenges of the 21st century.

Sahan Bulathwela, Maria Perez-Ortiz, Erik Novak et al.

Educational recommenders have received much less attention in comparison to e-commerce and entertainment-related recommenders, even though efficient intelligent tutors have great potential to improve learning gains. One of the main challenges in advancing this research direction is the scarcity of large, publicly available datasets. In this work, we release a large, novel dataset of learners engaging with educational videos in-the-wild. The dataset, named Personalised Educational Engagement with Knowledge Topics PEEK, is the first publicly available dataset of this nature. The video lectures have been associated with Wikipedia concepts related to the material of the lecture, thus providing a humanly intuitive taxonomy. We believe that granular learner engagement signals in unison with rich content representations will pave the way to building powerful personalization algorithms that will revolutionise educational and informational recommendation systems. Towards this goal, we 1) construct a novel dataset from a popular video lecture repository, 2) identify a set of benchmark algorithms to model engagement, and 3) run extensive experimentation on the PEEK dataset to demonstrate its value. Our experiments with the dataset show promise in building powerful informational recommender systems. The dataset and the support code is available publicly.

Sahan Bulathwela, Maria Perez-Ortiz, Emine Yilmaz et al.

With the emergence of e-learning and personalised education, the production and distribution of digital educational resources have boomed. Video lectures have now become one of the primary modalities to impart knowledge to masses in the current digital age. The rapid creation of video lecture content challenges the currently established human-centred moderation and quality assurance pipeline, demanding for more efficient, scalable and automatic solutions for managing learning resources. Although a few datasets related to engagement with educational videos exist, there is still an important need for data and research aimed at understanding learner engagement with scientific video lectures. This paper introduces VLEngagement, a novel dataset that consists of content-based and video-specific features extracted from publicly available scientific video lectures and several metrics related to user engagement. We introduce several novel tasks related to predicting and understanding context-agnostic engagement in video lectures, providing preliminary baselines. This is the largest and most diverse publicly available dataset to our knowledge that deals with such tasks. The extraction of Wikipedia topic-based features also allows associating more sophisticated Wikipedia based features to the dataset to improve the performance in these tasks. The dataset, helper tools and example code snippets are available publicly at https://github.com/sahanbull/context-agnostic-engagement

Aliaksei Mikhailiuk, Clifford Wilmot, Maria Perez-Ortiz et al.

Pairwise comparison data arise in many domains with subjective assessment experiments, for example in image and video quality assessment. In these experiments observers are asked to express a preference between two conditions. However, many pairwise comparison protocols require a large number of comparisons to infer accurate scores, which may be unfeasible when each comparison is time-consuming (e.g. videos) or expensive (e.g. medical imaging). This motivates the use of an active sampling algorithm that chooses only the most informative pairs for comparison. In this paper we propose ASAP, an active sampling algorithm based on approximate message passing and expected information gain maximization. Unlike most existing methods, which rely on partial updates of the posterior distribution, we are able to perform full updates and therefore much improve the accuracy of the inferred scores. The algorithm relies on three techniques for reducing computational cost: inference based on approximate message passing, selective evaluations of the information gain, and selecting pairs in a batch that forms a minimum spanning tree of the inverse of information gain. We demonstrate, with real and synthetic data, that ASAP offers the highest accuracy of inferred scores compared to the existing methods. We also provide an open-source GPU implementation of ASAP for large-scale experiments.

Maria Conchita Agana Navarro, Geng Li, Theo Wolf et al.

The accelerating pace of climate change introduces profound non-stationarities that challenge the ability of Machine Learning based climate emulators to generalize beyond their training distributions. While these emulators offer computationally efficient alternatives to traditional Earth System Models, their reliability remains a potential bottleneck under "no-analog" future climate states, which we define here as regimes where external forcing drives the system into conditions outside the empirical range of the historical training data. A fundamental challenge in evaluating this reliability is data contamination; because many models are trained on simulations that already encompass future scenarios, true out-of-distribution (OOD) performance is often masked. To address this, we benchmark the OOD robustness of three state-of-the-art architectures: U-Net, ConvLSTM, and the ClimaX foundation model specifically restricted to a historical-only training regime (1850-2014). We evaluate these models using two complementary strategies: (i) temporal extrapolation to the recent climate (2015-2023) and (ii) cross-scenario forcing shifts across divergent emission pathways. Our analysis within this experimental setup reveals an accuracy vs. stability trade-off: while the ClimaX foundation model achieves the lowest absolute error, it exhibits higher relative performance changes under distribution shifts, with precipitation errors increasing by up to 8.44% under extreme forcing scenarios. These findings suggest that when restricted to historical training dynamics, even high-capacity foundation models are sensitive to external forcing trajectories. Our results underscore the necessity of scenario-aware training and rigorous OOD evaluation protocols to ensure the robustness of climate emulators under a changing climate.

Noah Y. Siegel, Oana-Maria Camburu, Nicolas Heess et al.

In order to oversee advanced AI systems, it is important to understand their underlying decision-making process. When prompted, large language models (LLMs) can provide natural language explanations or reasoning traces that sound plausible and receive high ratings from human annotators. However, it is unclear to what extent these explanations are faithful, i.e., truly capture the factors responsible for the model's predictions. In this work, we introduce Correlational Explanatory Faithfulness (CEF), a metric that can be used in faithfulness tests based on input interventions. Previous metrics used in such tests take into account only binary changes in the predictions. Our metric accounts for the total shift in the model's predicted label distribution, more accurately reflecting the explanations' faithfulness. We then introduce the Correlational Counterfactual Test (CCT) by instantiating CEF on the Counterfactual Test (CT) from Atanasova et al. (2023). We evaluate the faithfulness of free-text explanations generated by few-shot-prompted LLMs from the Llama2 family on three NLP tasks. We find that our metric measures aspects of faithfulness which the CT misses.

Henning Heyen, Amy Widdicombe, Noah Y. Siegel et al.

Large language models (LLMs) are becoming bigger to boost performance. However, little is known about how explainability is affected by this trend. This work explores LIME explanations for DeBERTaV3 models of four different sizes on natural language inference (NLI) and zero-shot classification (ZSC) tasks. We evaluate the explanations based on their faithfulness to the models' internal decision processes and their plausibility, i.e. their agreement with human explanations. The key finding is that increased model size does not correlate with plausibility despite improved model performance, suggesting a misalignment between the LIME explanations and the models' internal processes as model size increases. Our results further suggest limitations regarding faithfulness metrics in NLI contexts.

Kenza Benkirane, Jackie Kay, Maria Perez-Ortiz

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have positioned them as powerful tools for clinical decision-making, with rapidly expanding applications in healthcare. However, concerns about bias remain a significant challenge in the clinical implementation of LLMs, particularly regarding gender and ethnicity. This research investigates the evaluation and mitigation of bias in LLMs applied to complex clinical cases, focusing on gender and ethnicity biases. We introduce a novel Counterfactual Patient Variations (CPV) dataset derived from the JAMA Clinical Challenge. Using this dataset, we built a framework for bias evaluation, employing both Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs) and corresponding explanations. We explore prompting with eight LLMs and fine-tuning as debiasing methods. Our findings reveal that addressing social biases in LLMs requires a multidimensional approach as mitigating gender bias can occur while introducing ethnicity biases, and that gender bias in LLM embeddings varies significantly across medical specialities. We demonstrate that evaluating both MCQ response and explanation processes is crucial, as correct responses can be based on biased \textit{reasoning}. We provide a framework for evaluating LLM bias in real-world clinical cases, offer insights into the complex nature of bias in these models, and present strategies for bias mitigation.

Zekun Wu, Sahan Bulathwela, Maria Perez-Ortiz et al.

Stereotype detection is a challenging and subjective task, as certain statements, such as "Black people like to play basketball," may not appear overtly toxic but still reinforce racial stereotypes. With the increasing prevalence of large language models (LLMs) in human-facing artificial intelligence (AI) applications, detecting these types of biases is essential. However, LLMs risk perpetuating and amplifying stereotypical outputs derived from their training data. A reliable stereotype detector is crucial for benchmarking bias, monitoring model input and output, filtering training data, and ensuring fairer model behavior in downstream applications. This paper introduces the Multi-Grain Stereotype (MGS) dataset, consisting of 51,867 instances across gender, race, profession, religion, and other stereotypes, curated from multiple existing datasets. We evaluate various machine learning approaches to establish baselines and fine-tune language models of different architectures and sizes, presenting a suite of stereotype multiclass classifiers trained on the MGS dataset. Given the subjectivity of stereotypes, explainability is essential to align model learning with human understanding of stereotypes. We employ explainable AI (XAI) tools, including SHAP, LIME, and BertViz, to assess whether the model's learned patterns align with human intuitions about stereotypes.Additionally, we develop stereotype elicitation prompts and benchmark the presence of stereotypes in text generation tasks using popular LLMs, employing the best-performing stereotype classifiers.

Zekun Wu, Adriano Koshiyama, Sahan Bulathwela et al.

Tool-augmented LLM agents increasingly serve as multi-turn advisors in high-stakes domains, yet their evaluation relies on ranking-quality metrics that measure what is recommended but not whether it is safe for the user. We introduce a paired-trajectory protocol that replays real financial dialogues under clean and contaminated tool-output conditions across seven LLMs (7B to frontier) and decomposes divergence into information-channel and memory-channel mechanisms. Across the seven models tested, we consistently observe the evaluation-blindness pattern: recommendation quality is largely preserved under contamination (utility preservation ratio approximately 1.0) while risk-inappropriate products appear in 65-93% of turns, a systematic safety failure poorly reflected by standard NDCG. Safety violations are predominantly information-channel-driven, emerge at the first contaminated turn, and persist without self-correction over 23-step trajectories; no agent across 1,563 contaminated turns explicitly questions tool-data reliability. Even narrative-only corruption (biased headlines, no numerical manipulation) induces significant drift while completely evading consistency monitors. A safety-penalized NDCG variant (sNDCG) reduces preservation ratios to 0.51-0.74, indicating that much of the evaluation gap becomes visible once safety is explicitly measured. These results motivate considering trajectory-level safety monitoring, beyond single-turn quality, for deployed multi-turn agents in high-stakes settings.

Theodore Wolf, Nantas Nardelli, John Shawe-Taylor et al.

Governments around the world aspire to ground decision-making on evidence. Many of the foundations of policy making - e.g. sensing patterns that relate to societal needs, developing evidence-based programs, forecasting potential outcomes of policy changes, and monitoring effectiveness of policy programs - have the potential to benefit from the use of large-scale datasets or simulations together with intelligent algorithms. These could, if designed and deployed in a way that is well grounded on scientific evidence, enable a more comprehensive, faster, and rigorous approach to policy making. Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) is a broad umbrella covering scientific models that attempt to link main features of society and economy with the biosphere into one modelling framework. At present, these systems are probed by policy makers and advisory groups in a hypothesis-driven manner. In this paper, we empirically demonstrate that modern Reinforcement Learning can be used to probe IAMs and explore the space of solutions in a more principled manner. While the implication of our results are modest since the environment is simplistic, we believe that this is a stepping stone towards more ambitious use cases, which could allow for effective exploration of policies and understanding of their consequences and limitations.

Sahan Bulathwela, Daniel Van Niekerk, Jarrod Shipton et al.

Personalised education is one of the domains that can greatly benefit from the most recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Large Language Models (LLM). However, it is also one of the most challenging applications due to the cognitive complexity of teaching effectively while personalising the learning experience to suit independent learners. We hypothesise that one promising approach to excelling in such demanding use cases is using a \emph{society of minds}. In this chapter, we present TrueReason, an exemplar personalised learning system that integrates a multitude of specialised AI models that can mimic micro skills that are composed together by a LLM to operationalise planning and reasoning. The architecture of the initial prototype is presented while describing two micro skills that have been incorporated in the prototype. The proposed system demonstrates the first step in building sophisticated AI systems that can take up very complex cognitive tasks that are demanded by domains such as education.

Ze Wang, Zekun Wu, Xin Guan et al.

The use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in hiring has led to legislative actions to protect vulnerable demographic groups. This paper presents a novel framework for benchmarking hierarchical gender hiring bias in Large Language Models (LLMs) for resume scoring, revealing significant issues of reverse gender hiring bias and overdebiasing. Our contributions are fourfold: Firstly, we introduce a new construct grounded in labour economics, legal principles, and critiques of current bias benchmarks: hiring bias can be categorized into two types: Level bias (difference in the average outcomes between demographic counterfactual groups) and Spread bias (difference in the variance of outcomes between demographic counterfactual groups); Level bias can be further subdivided into statistical bias (i.e. changing with non-demographic content) and taste-based bias (i.e. consistent regardless of non-demographic content). Secondly, the framework includes rigorous statistical and computational hiring bias metrics, such as Rank After Scoring (RAS), Rank-based Impact Ratio, Permutation Test, and Fixed Effects Model. Thirdly, we analyze gender hiring biases in ten state-of-the-art LLMs. Seven out of ten LLMs show significant biases against males in at least one industry. An industry-effect regression reveals that the healthcare industry is the most biased against males. Moreover, we found that the bias performance remains invariant with resume content for eight out of ten LLMs. This indicates that the bias performance measured in this paper might apply to other resume datasets with different resume qualities. Fourthly, we provide a user-friendly demo and resume dataset to support the adoption and practical use of the framework, which can be generalized to other social traits and tasks.

Maria Perez-Ortiz, Sahan Bulathwela, Claire Dormann et al.

Prior research has shown how 'content preview tools' improve speed and accuracy of user relevance judgements across different information retrieval tasks. This paper describes a novel user interface tool, the Content Flow Bar, designed to allow users to quickly identify relevant fragments within informational videos to facilitate browsing, through a cognitively augmented form of navigation. It achieves this by providing semantic "snippets" that enable the user to rapidly scan through video content. The tool provides visually-appealing pop-ups that appear in a time series bar at the bottom of each video, allowing to see in advance and at a glance how topics evolve in the content. We conducted a user study to evaluate how the tool changes the users search experience in video retrieval, as well as how it supports exploration and information seeking. The user questionnaire revealed that participants found the Content Flow Bar helpful and enjoyable for finding relevant information in videos. The interaction logs of the user study, where participants interacted with the tool for completing two informational tasks, showed that it holds promise for enhancing discoverability of content both across and within videos. This discovered potential could leverage a new generation of navigation tools in search and information retrieval.

Maria Perez-Ortiz, Erik Novak, Sahan Bulathwela et al.

Artifical Intelligence (AI) in Education has great potential for building more personalised curricula, as well as democratising education worldwide and creating a Renaissance of new ways of teaching and learning. We believe this is a crucial moment for setting the foundations of AI in education in the beginning of this Fourth Industrial Revolution. This report aims to synthesize how AI might change (and is already changing) how we learn, as well as what technological features are crucial for these AI systems in education, with the end goal of starting this pressing dialogue of how the future of AI in education should unfold, engaging policy makers, engineers, researchers and obviously, teachers and learners. This report also presents the advances within the X5GON project, a European H2020 project aimed at building and deploying a cross-modal, cross-lingual, cross-cultural, cross-domain and cross-site personalised learning platform for Open Educational Resources (OER).

Maria Perez-Ortiz, Omar Rivasplata, Emilio Parrado-Hernandez et al.

A learning method is self-certified if it uses all available data to simultaneously learn a predictor and certify its quality with a tight statistical certificate that is valid on unseen data. Recent work has shown that neural network models trained by optimising PAC-Bayes bounds lead not only to accurate predictors, but also to tight risk certificates, bearing promise towards achieving self-certified learning. In this context, learning and certification strategies based on PAC-Bayes bounds are especially attractive due to their ability to leverage all data to learn a posterior and simultaneously certify its risk with a tight numerical certificate. In this paper, we assess the progress towards self-certification in probabilistic neural networks learnt by PAC-Bayes inspired objectives. We empirically compare (on 4 classification datasets) classical test set bounds for deterministic predictors and a PAC-Bayes bound for randomised self-certified predictors. We first show that both of these generalisation bounds are not too far from out-of-sample test set errors. We then show that in data starvation regimes, holding out data for the test set bounds adversely affects generalisation performance, while self-certified strategies based on PAC-Bayes bounds do not suffer from this drawback, proving that they might be a suitable choice for the small data regime. We also find that probabilistic neural networks learnt by PAC-Bayes inspired objectives lead to certificates that can be surprisingly competitive with commonly used test set bounds.

Maria Perez-Ortiz, Omar Rivasplata, Benjamin Guedj et al.

Recent works have investigated deep learning models trained by optimising PAC-Bayes bounds, with priors that are learnt on subsets of the data. This combination has been shown to lead not only to accurate classifiers, but also to remarkably tight risk certificates, bearing promise towards self-certified learning (i.e. use all the data to learn a predictor and certify its quality). In this work, we empirically investigate the role of the prior. We experiment on 6 datasets with different strategies and amounts of data to learn data-dependent PAC-Bayes priors, and we compare them in terms of their effect on test performance of the learnt predictors and tightness of their risk certificate. We ask what is the optimal amount of data which should be allocated for building the prior and show that the optimum may be dataset dependent. We demonstrate that using a small percentage of the prior-building data for validation of the prior leads to promising results. We include a comparison of underparameterised and overparameterised models, along with an empirical study of different training objectives and regularisation strategies to learn the prior distribution.

Aliaksei Mikhailiuk, Maria Perez-Ortiz, Dingcheng Yue et al.

Increasing popularity of high-dynamic-range (HDR) image and video content brings the need for metrics that could predict the severity of image impairments as seen on displays of different brightness levels and dynamic range. Such metrics should be trained and validated on a sufficiently large subjective image quality dataset to ensure robust performance. As the existing HDR quality datasets are limited in size, we created a Unified Photometric Image Quality dataset (UPIQ) with over 4,000 images by realigning and merging existing HDR and standard-dynamic-range (SDR) datasets. The realigned quality scores share the same unified quality scale across all datasets. Such realignment was achieved by collecting additional cross-dataset quality comparisons and re-scaling data with a psychometric scaling method. Images in the proposed dataset are represented in absolute photometric and colorimetric units, corresponding to light emitted from a display. We use the new dataset to retrain existing HDR metrics and show that the dataset is sufficiently large for training deep architectures. We show the utility of the dataset on brightness aware image compression.

Sahan Bulathwela, Maria Perez-Ortiz, Emine Yilmaz et al.

One of the most ambitious use cases of computer-assisted learning is to build a recommendation system for lifelong learning. Most recommender algorithms exploit similarities between content and users, overseeing the necessity to leverage sensible learning trajectories for the learner. Lifelong learning thus presents unique challenges, requiring scalable and transparent models that can account for learner knowledge and content novelty simultaneously, while also retaining accurate learners representations for long periods of time. We attempt to build a novel educational recommender, that relies on an integrative approach combining multiple drivers of learners engagement. Our first step towards this goal is TrueLearn, which models content novelty and background knowledge of learners and achieves promising performance while retaining a human interpretable learner model.

Sahan Bulathwela, Maria Perez-Ortiz, Emine Yilmaz et al.

The recent advances in computer-assisted learning systems and the availability of open educational resources today promise a pathway to providing cost-efficient, high-quality education to large masses of learners. One of the most ambitious use cases of computer-assisted learning is to build a lifelong learning recommendation system. Unlike short-term courses, lifelong learning presents unique challenges, requiring sophisticated recommendation models that account for a wide range of factors such as background knowledge of learners or novelty of the material while effectively maintaining knowledge states of masses of learners for significantly longer periods of time (ideally, a lifetime). This work presents the foundations towards building a dynamic, scalable and transparent recommendation system for education, modelling learner's knowledge from implicit data in the form of engagement with open educational resources. We i) use a text ontology based on Wikipedia to automatically extract knowledge components of educational resources and, ii) propose a set of online Bayesian strategies inspired by the well-known areas of item response theory and knowledge tracing. Our proposal, TrueLearn, focuses on recommendations for which the learner has enough background knowledge (so they are able to understand and learn from the material), and the material has enough novelty that would help the learner improve their knowledge about the subject and keep them engaged. We further construct a large open educational video lectures dataset and test the performance of the proposed algorithms, which show clear promise towards building an effective educational recommendation system.

Maria Perez-Ortiz, Peter Tino, Rafal Mantiuk et al.

Data augmentation is rapidly gaining attention in machine learning. Synthetic data can be generated by simple transformations or through the data distribution. In the latter case, the main challenge is to estimate the label associated to new synthetic patterns. This paper studies the effect of generating synthetic data by convex combination of patterns and the use of these as unsupervised information in a semi-supervised learning framework with support vector machines, avoiding thus the need to label synthetic examples. We perform experiments on a total of 53 binary classification datasets. Our results show that this type of data over-sampling supports the well-known cluster assumption in semi-supervised learning, showing outstanding results for small high-dimensional datasets and imbalanced learning problems.

Maria Perez-Ortiz, Pedro A. Gutierrez, Peter Tino et al.

Weather and atmospheric patterns are often persistent. The simplest weather forecasting method is the so-called persistence model, which assumes that the future state of a system will be similar (or equal) to the present state. Machine learning (ML) models are widely used in different weather forecasting applications, but they need to be compared to the persistence model to analyse whether they provide a competitive solution to the problem at hand. In this paper, we devise a new model for predicting low-visibility in airports using the concepts of mixture of experts. Visibility level is coded as two different ordered categorical variables: cloud height and runway visual height. The underlying system in this application is stagnant approximately in 90% of the cases, and standard ML models fail to improve on the performance of the persistence model. Because of this, instead of trying to simply beat the persistence model using ML, we use this persistence as a baseline and learn an ordinal neural network model that refines its results by focusing on learning weather fluctuations. The results show that the proposal outperforms persistence and other ordinal autoregressive models, especially for longer time horizon predictions and for the runway visual height variable.

Maria Perez-Ortiz, Rafal K. Mantiuk

Most popular strategies to capture subjective judgments from humans involve the construction of a unidimensional relative measurement scale, representing order preferences or judgments about a set of objects or conditions. This information is generally captured by means of direct scoring, either in the form of a Likert or cardinal scale, or by comparative judgments in pairs or sets. In this sense, the use of pairwise comparisons is becoming increasingly popular because of the simplicity of this experimental procedure. However, this strategy requires non-trivial data analysis to aggregate the comparison ranks into a quality scale and analyse the results, in order to take full advantage of the collected data. This paper explains the process of translating pairwise comparison data into a measurement scale, discusses the benefits and limitations of such scaling methods and introduces a publicly available software in Matlab. We improve on existing scaling methods by introducing outlier analysis, providing methods for computing confidence intervals and statistical testing and introducing a prior, which reduces estimation error when the number of observers is low. Most of our examples focus on image quality assessment.