Arno Siebes

Jie Shi, Arno P. J. M. Siebes, Siamak Mehrkanoon

This paper proposes an interpretable two-stream transformer CORAL networks (TransCORALNet) for supply chain credit assessment under the segment industry and cold start problem. The model aims to provide accurate credit assessment prediction for new supply chain borrowers with limited historical data. Here, the two-stream domain adaptation architecture with correlation alignment (CORAL) loss is used as a core model and is equipped with transformer, which provides insights about the learned features and allow efficient parallelization during training. Thanks to the domain adaptation capability of the proposed model, the domain shift between the source and target domain is minimized. Therefore, the model exhibits good generalization where the source and target do not follow the same distribution, and a limited amount of target labeled instances exist. Furthermore, we employ Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) to provide more insight into the model prediction and identify the key features contributing to supply chain credit assessment decisions. The proposed model addresses four significant supply chain credit assessment challenges: domain shift, cold start, imbalanced-class and interpretability. Experimental results on a real-world data set demonstrate the superiority of TransCORALNet over a number of state-of-the-art baselines in terms of accuracy. The code is available on GitHub https://github.com/JieJieNiu/TransCORALN .

Jie Shi, Arno P. J. M. Siebes, Siamak Mehrkanoon

This paper proposes a Trans-XFed architecture that combines federated learning with explainable AI techniques for supply chain credit assessment. The proposed model aims to address several key challenges, including privacy, information silos, class imbalance, non-identically and independently distributed (Non-IID) data, and model interpretability in supply chain credit assessment. We introduce a performance-based client selection strategy (PBCS) to tackle class imbalance and Non-IID problems. This strategy achieves faster convergence by selecting clients with higher local F1 scores. The FedProx architecture, enhanced with homomorphic encryption, is used as the core model, and further incorporates a transformer encoder. The transformer encoder block provides insights into the learned features. Additionally, we employ the integrated gradient explainable AI technique to offer insights into decision-making. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Trans-XFed through experimental evaluations on real-world supply chain datasets. The obtained results show its ability to deliver accurate credit assessments compared to several baselines, while maintaining transparency and privacy.

Haotian Li, Arno Siebes, Siamak Mehrkanoon

Nowcasting, the short-term prediction of weather, is essential for making timely and weather-dependent decisions. Specifically, precipitation nowcasting aims to predict precipitation at a local level within a 6-hour time frame. This task can be framed as a spatial-temporal sequence forecasting problem, where deep learning methods have been particularly effective. However, despite advancements in self-supervised learning, most successful methods for nowcasting remain fully supervised. Self-supervised learning is advantageous for pretraining models to learn representations without requiring extensive labeled data. In this work, we leverage the benefits of self-supervised learning and integrate it with spatial-temporal learning to develop a novel model, SpaT-SparK. SpaT-SparK comprises a CNN-based encoder-decoder structure pretrained with a masked image modeling (MIM) task and a translation network that captures temporal relationships among past and future precipitation maps in downstream tasks. We conducted experiments on the NL-50 dataset to evaluate the performance of SpaT-SparK. The results demonstrate that SpaT-SparK outperforms existing baseline supervised models, such as SmaAt-UNet, providing more accurate nowcasting predictions.

Brandon Gower-Winter, Georg Krempl, Sergey Dragomiretskiy et al.

Concept Drift has been extensively studied within the context of Stream Learning. However, it is often assumed that the deployed model's predictions play no role in the concept drift the system experiences. Closer inspection reveals that this is not always the case. Automated trading might be prone to self-fulfilling feedback loops. Likewise, malicious entities might adapt to evade detectors in the adversarial setting resulting in a self-negating feedback loop that requires the deployed models to constantly retrain. Such settings where a model may induce concept drift are called performative. In this work, we investigate this phenomenon. Our contributions are as follows: First, we define performative drift within a stream learning setting and distinguish it from other causes of drift. We introduce a novel type of drift detection task, aimed at identifying potential performative concept drift in data streams. We propose a first such performative drift detection approach, called CheckerBoard Performative Drift Detection (CB-PDD). We apply CB-PDD to both synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets that exhibit varying degrees of self-fulfilling feedback loops. Results are positive with CB-PDD showing high efficacy, low false detection rates, resilience to intrinsic drift, comparability to other drift detection techniques, and an ability to effectively detect performative drift in semi-synthetic datasets. Secondly, we highlight the role intrinsic (traditional) drift plays in obfuscating performative drift and discuss the implications of these findings as well as the limitations of CB-PDD.

Roel Bertens, Jilles Vreeken, Arno Siebes

We study how to obtain concise descriptions of discrete multivariate sequential data. In particular, how to do so in terms of rich multivariate sequential patterns that can capture potentially highly interesting (cor)relations between sequences. To this end we allow our pattern language to span over the domains (alphabets) of all sequences, allow patterns to overlap temporally, as well as allow for gaps in their occurrences. We formalise our goal by the Minimum Description Length principle, by which our objective is to discover the set of patterns that provides the most succinct description of the data. To discover high-quality pattern sets directly from data, we introduce DITTO, a highly efficient algorithm that approximates the ideal result very well. Experiments show that DITTO correctly discovers the patterns planted in synthetic data. Moreover, it scales favourably with the length of the data, the number of attributes, the alphabet sizes. On real data, ranging from sensor networks to annotated text, DITTO discovers easily interpretable summaries that provide clear insight in both the univariate and multivariate structure.

Roel Bertens, Jilles Vreeken, Arno Siebes

Our world is filled with both beautiful and brainy people, but how often does a Nobel Prize winner also wins a beauty pageant? Let us assume that someone who is both very beautiful and very smart is more rare than what we would expect from the combination of the number of beautiful and brainy people. Of course there will still always be some individuals that defy this stereotype; these beautiful brainy people are exactly the class of anomaly we focus on in this paper. They do not posses intrinsically rare qualities, it is the unexpected combination of factors that makes them stand out. In this paper we define the above described class of anomaly and propose a method to quickly identify them in transaction data. Further, as we take a pattern set based approach, our method readily explains why a transaction is anomalous. The effectiveness of our method is thoroughly verified with a wide range of experiments on both real world and synthetic data.