Takahiro Yabe

J. Xue, T. Yabe, K. Tsubouchi et al.

Recurring outbreaks of COVID-19 have posed enduring effects on global society, which calls for a predictor of pandemic waves using various data with early availability. Existing prediction models that forecast the first outbreak wave using mobility data may not be applicable to the multiwave prediction, because the evidence in the USA and Japan has shown that mobility patterns across different waves exhibit varying relationships with fluctuations in infection cases. Therefore, to predict the multiwave pandemic, we propose a Social Awareness-Based Graph Neural Network (SAB-GNN) that considers the decay of symptom-related web search frequency to capture the changes in public awareness across multiple waves. Our model combines GNN and LSTM to model the complex relationships among urban districts, inter-district mobility patterns, web search history, and future COVID-19 infections. We train our model to predict future pandemic outbreaks in the Tokyo area using its mobility and web search data from April 2020 to May 2021 across four pandemic waves collected by Yahoo Japan Corporation under strict privacy protection rules. Results demonstrate our model outperforms state-of-the-art baselines such as ST-GNN, MPNN, and GraphLSTM. Though our model is not computationally expensive (only 3 layers and 10 hidden neurons), the proposed model enables public agencies to anticipate and prepare for future pandemic outbreaks.

Toru Shimizu, Takahiro Yabe, Kota Tsubouchi

Place embeddings generated from human mobility trajectories have become a popular method to understand the functionality of places. Place embeddings with high spatial resolution are desirable for many applications, however, downscaling the spatial resolution deteriorates the quality of embeddings due to data sparsity, especially in less populated areas. We address this issue by proposing a method that generates fine grained place embeddings, which leverages spatial hierarchical information according to the local density of observed data points. The effectiveness of our fine grained place embeddings are compared to baseline methods via next place prediction tasks using real world trajectory data from 3 cities in Japan. In addition, we demonstrate the value of our fine grained place embeddings for land use classification applications. We believe that our technique of incorporating spatial hierarchical information can complement and reinforce various place embedding generating methods.