Guoting Chen

Zipo Jibao, Yingyi Fu, Xinyang Chen et al.

Recent research demonstrates that linear models achieve forecasting performance competitive with complex architectures, yet methodologies for enhancing linear models remain underexplored. Motivated by the hypothesis that distinct time series instances may follow heterogeneous linear mappings, we propose the Classification Auxiliary Trend-Seasonal Decoupling Linear Model CATS-Linear, employing Classification Auxiliary Channel-Independence (CACI). CACI dynamically routes instances to dedicated predictors via classification, enabling supervised channel design. We further analyze the theoretical expected risks of different channel settings. Additionally, we redesign the trend-seasonal decomposition architecture by adding a decoupling -- linear mapping -- recoupling framework for trend components and complex-domain linear projections for seasonal components. Extensive experiments validate that CATS-Linear with fixed hyperparameters achieves state-of-the-art accuracy comparable to hyperparameter-tuned baselines while delivering SOTA accuracy against fixed-hyperparameter counterparts.

Zipo Jibao, Yingyi Fu, Xinyang Chen et al.

Real-world time series are influenced by numerous factors and exhibit complex non-stationary characteristics. Non-stationarity can lead to distribution shifts, where the statistical properties of time series change over time, negatively impacting model performance. Several instance normalization techniques have been proposed to address distribution shifts in time series forecasting. However, existing methods fail to account for shifts within individual instances, leading to suboptimal performance. To tackle inner-instance distribution shifts, we propose two novel point-level methods: Learning Distribution (LD) and Learning Conditional Distribution (LCD). LD eliminates internal discrepancies by fitting the internal distribution of input and output with different parameters at different time steps, while LCD utilizes neural networks to predict scaling coefficients of the output. We evaluate the performance of the two methods with various backbone models across public benchmarks and demonstrate the effectiveness of the point-level paradigm through comparative experiments.

Wensheng Gan, Guoting Chen, Hongzhi Yin et al.

Economic-wise, a common goal for companies conducting marketing is to maximize the return revenue/profit by utilizing the various effective marketing strategies. Consumer behavior is crucially important in economy and targeted marketing, in which behavioral economics can provide valuable insights to identify the biases and profit from customers. Finding credible and reliable information on products' profitability is, however, quite difficult since most products tends to peak at certain times w.r.t. seasonal sales cycle in a year. On-Shelf Availability (OSA) plays a key factor for performance evaluation. Besides, staying ahead of hot product trends means we can increase marketing efforts without selling out the inventory. To fulfill this gap, in this paper, we first propose a general profit-oriented framework to address the problem of revenue maximization based on economic behavior, and compute the 0n-shelf Popular and most Profitable Products (OPPPs) for the targeted marketing. To tackle the revenue maximization problem, we model the k-satisfiable product concept and propose an algorithmic framework for searching OPPP and its variants. Extensive experiments are conducted on several real-world datasets to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.