Abir De

Indradyumna Roy, Soumen Chakrabarti, Abir De

The graph retrieval problem is to search in a large corpus of graphs for ones that are most similar to a query graph. A common consideration for scoring similarity is the maximum common subgraph (MCS) between the query and corpus graphs, usually counting the number of common edges (i.e., MCES). In some applications, it is also desirable that the common subgraph be connected, i.e., the maximum common connected subgraph (MCCS). Finding exact MCES and MCCS is intractable, but may be unnecessary if ranking corpus graphs by relevance is the goal. We design fast and trainable neural functions that approximate MCES and MCCS well. Late interaction methods compute dense representations for the query and corpus graph separately, and compare these representations using simple similarity functions at the last stage, leading to highly scalable systems. Early interaction methods combine information from both graphs right from the input stages, are usually considerably more accurate, but slower. We propose both late and early interaction neural MCES and MCCS formulations. They are both based on a continuous relaxation of a node alignment matrix between query and corpus nodes. For MCCS, we propose a novel differentiable network for estimating the size of the largest connected common subgraph. Extensive experiments with seven data sets show that our proposals are superior among late interaction models in terms of both accuracy and speed. Our early interaction models provide accuracy competitive with the state of the art, at substantially greater speeds.

Abir De, Soumen Chakrabarti

Submodular functions and variants, through their ability to characterize diversity and coverage, have emerged as a key tool for data selection and summarization. Many recent approaches to learn submodular functions suffer from limited expressiveness. In this work, we propose FLEXSUBNET, a family of flexible neural models for both monotone and non-monotone submodular functions. To fit a latent submodular function from (set, value) observations, FLEXSUBNET applies a concave function on modular functions in a recursive manner. We do not draw the concave function from a restricted family, but rather learn from data using a highly expressive neural network that implements a differentiable quadrature procedure. Such an expressive neural model for concave functions may be of independent interest. Next, we extend this setup to provide a novel characterization of monotone α-submodular functions, a recently introduced notion of approximate submodular functions. We then use this characterization to design a novel neural model for such functions. Finally, we consider learning submodular set functions under distant supervision in the form of (perimeter-set, high-value-subset) pairs. This yields a novel subset selection method based on an order-invariant, yet greedy sampler built around the above neural set functions. Our experiments on synthetic and real data show that FLEXSUBNET outperforms several baselines.

Vinayak Gupta, Srikanta Bedathur, Sourangshu Bhattacharya et al.

A large fraction of data generated via human activities such as online purchases, health records, spatial mobility etc. can be represented as a sequence of events over a continuous-time. Learning deep learning models over these continuous-time event sequences is a non-trivial task as it involves modeling the ever-increasing event timestamps, inter-event time gaps, event types, and the influences between different events within and across different sequences. In recent years neural enhancements to marked temporal point processes (MTPP) have emerged as a powerful framework to model the underlying generative mechanism of asynchronous events localized in continuous time. However, most existing models and inference methods in the MTPP framework consider only the complete observation scenario i.e. the event sequence being modeled is completely observed with no missing events -- an ideal setting that is rarely applicable in real-world applications. A recent line of work which considers missing events while training MTPP utilizes supervised learning techniques that require additional knowledge of missing or observed label for each event in a sequence, which further restricts its practicability as in several scenarios the details of missing events is not known apriori. In this work, we provide a novel unsupervised model and inference method for learning MTPP in presence of event sequences with missing events. Specifically, we first model the generative processes of observed events and missing events using two MTPP, where the missing events are represented as latent random variables. Then, we devise an unsupervised training method that jointly learns both the MTPP by means of variational inference. Such a formulation can effectively impute the missing data among the observed events and can identify the optimal position of missing events in a sequence.

Vinayak Gupta, Srikanta Bedathur, Abir De

Temporal sequences have become pervasive in various real-world applications. Consequently, the volume of data generated in the form of continuous time-event sequence(s) or CTES(s) has increased exponentially in the past few years. Thus, a significant fraction of the ongoing research on CTES datasets involves designing models to address downstream tasks such as next-event prediction, long-term forecasting, sequence classification etc. The recent developments in predictive modeling using marked temporal point processes (MTPP) have enabled an accurate characterization of several real-world applications involving the CTESs. However, due to the complex nature of these CTES datasets, the task of large-scale retrieval of temporal sequences has been overlooked by the past literature. In detail, by CTES retrieval we mean that for an input query sequence, a retrieval system must return a ranked list of relevant sequences from a large corpus. To tackle this, we propose NeuroSeqRet, a first-of-its-kind framework designed specifically for end-to-end CTES retrieval. Specifically, NeuroSeqRet introduces multiple enhancements over standard retrieval frameworks and first applies a trainable unwarping function on the query sequence which makes it comparable with corpus sequences, especially when a relevant query-corpus pair has individually different attributes. Next, it feeds the unwarped query sequence and the corpus sequence into MTPP-guided neural relevance models. We develop four variants of the relevance model for different kinds of applications based on the trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. We also propose an optimization framework to learn binary sequence embeddings from the relevance scores, suitable for the locality-sensitive hashing. Our experiments show the significant accuracy boost of NeuroSeqRet as well as the efficacy of our hashing mechanism.

Eeshaan Jain, Tushar Nandy, Gaurav Aggarwal et al.

Existing subset selection methods for efficient learning predominantly employ discrete combinatorial and model-specific approaches which lack generalizability. For an unseen architecture, one cannot use the subset chosen for a different model. To tackle this problem, we propose $\texttt{SubSelNet}$, a trainable subset selection framework, that generalizes across architectures. Here, we first introduce an attention-based neural gadget that leverages the graph structure of architectures and acts as a surrogate to trained deep neural networks for quick model prediction. Then, we use these predictions to build subset samplers. This naturally provides us two variants of $\texttt{SubSelNet}$. The first variant is transductive (called as Transductive-$\texttt{SubSelNet}$) which computes the subset separately for each model by solving a small optimization problem. Such an optimization is still super fast, thanks to the replacement of explicit model training by the model approximator. The second variant is inductive (called as Inductive-$\texttt{SubSelNet}$) which computes the subset using a trained subset selector, without any optimization. Our experiments show that our model outperforms several methods across several real datasets

Eeshaan Jain, Indradyumna Roy, Saswat Meher et al.

Graph Edit Distance (GED) measures the (dis-)similarity between two given graphs, in terms of the minimum-cost edit sequence that transforms one graph to the other. However, the exact computation of GED is NP-Hard, which has recently motivated the design of neural methods for GED estimation. However, they do not explicitly account for edit operations with different costs. In response, we propose GRAPHEDX, a neural GED estimator that can work with general costs specified for the four edit operations, viz., edge deletion, edge addition, node deletion and node addition. We first present GED as a quadratic assignment problem (QAP) that incorporates these four costs. Then, we represent each graph as a set of node and edge embeddings and use them to design a family of neural set divergence surrogates. We replace the QAP terms corresponding to each operation with their surrogates. Computing such neural set divergence require aligning nodes and edges of the two graphs. We learn these alignments using a Gumbel-Sinkhorn permutation generator, additionally ensuring that the node and edge alignments are consistent with each other. Moreover, these alignments are cognizant of both the presence and absence of edges between node-pairs. Experiments on several datasets, under a variety of edit cost settings, show that GRAPHEDX consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods and heuristics in terms of prediction error.

Ashwin Ramachandran, Vaibhav Raj, Indrayumna Roy et al.

Graph retrieval based on subgraph isomorphism has several real-world applications such as scene graph retrieval, molecular fingerprint detection and circuit design. Roy et al. [35] proposed IsoNet, a late interaction model for subgraph matching, which first computes the node and edge embeddings of each graph independently of paired graph and then computes a trainable alignment map. Here, we present IsoNet++, an early interaction graph neural network (GNN), based on several technical innovations. First, we compute embeddings of all nodes by passing messages within and across the two input graphs, guided by an injective alignment between their nodes. Second, we update this alignment in a lazy fashion over multiple rounds. Within each round, we run a layerwise GNN from scratch, based on the current state of the alignment. After the completion of one round of GNN, we use the last-layer embeddings to update the alignments, and proceed to the next round. Third, IsoNet++ incorporates a novel notion of node-pair partner interaction. Traditional early interaction computes attention between a node and its potential partners in the other graph, the attention then controlling messages passed across graphs. In contrast, we consider node pairs (not single nodes) as potential partners. Existence of an edge between the nodes in one graph and non-existence in the other provide vital signals for refining the alignment. Our experiments on several datasets show that the alignments get progressively refined with successive rounds, resulting in significantly better retrieval performance than existing methods. We demonstrate that all three innovations contribute to the enhanced accuracy. Our code and datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/structlearning/isonetpp.

Soutrik Sarangi, Yonatan Sverdlov, Nadav Dym et al.

Motivated by applications for set containment problems, we consider the following fundamental problem: can we design set-to-vector functions so that the natural partial order on sets is preserved, namely $S\subseteq T \text{ if and only if } F(S)\leq F(T) $. We call functions satisfying this property Monotone and Separating (MAS) set functions. % We establish lower and upper bounds for the vector dimension necessary to obtain MAS functions, as a function of the cardinality of the multisets and the underlying ground set. In the important case of an infinite ground set, we show that MAS functions do not exist, but provide a model called our which provably enjoys a relaxed MAS property we name "weakly MAS" and is stable in the sense of Holder continuity. We also show that MAS functions can be used to construct universal models that are monotone by construction and can approximate all monotone set functions. Experimentally, we consider a variety of set containment tasks. The experiments show the benefit of using our our model, in comparison with standard set models which do not incorporate set containment as an inductive bias. Our code is available in https://github.com/yonatansverdlov/Monotone-Embedding.

Krishnateja Killamsetty, Durga Sivasubramanian, Ganesh Ramakrishnan et al.

The great success of modern machine learning models on large datasets is contingent on extensive computational resources with high financial and environmental costs. One way to address this is by extracting subsets that generalize on par with the full data. In this work, we propose a general framework, GRAD-MATCH, which finds subsets that closely match the gradient of the training or validation set. We find such subsets effectively using an orthogonal matching pursuit algorithm. We show rigorous theoretical and convergence guarantees of the proposed algorithm and, through our extensive experiments on real-world datasets, show the effectiveness of our proposed framework. We show that GRAD-MATCH significantly and consistently outperforms several recent data-selection algorithms and achieves the best accuracy-efficiency trade-off. GRAD-MATCH is available as a part of the CORDS toolkit: \url{https://github.com/decile-team/cords}.

Lokesh Nagalapatti, Akshay Iyer, Abir De et al.

We address the Individualized continuous treatment effect (ICTE) estimation problem where we predict the effect of any continuous-valued treatment on an individual using observational data. The main challenge in this estimation task is the potential confounding of treatment assignment with an individual's covariates in the training data, whereas during inference ICTE requires prediction on independently sampled treatments. In contrast to prior work that relied on regularizers or unstable GAN training, we advocate the direct approach of augmenting training individuals with independently sampled treatments and inferred counterfactual outcomes. We infer counterfactual outcomes using a two-pronged strategy: a Gradient Interpolation for close-to-observed treatments, and a Gaussian Process based Kernel Smoothing which allows us to downweigh high variance inferences. We evaluate our method on five benchmarks and show that our method outperforms six state-of-the-art methods on the counterfactual estimation error. We analyze the superior performance of our method by showing that (1) our inferred counterfactual responses are more accurate, and (2) adding them to the training data reduces the distributional distance between the confounded training distribution and test distribution where treatment is independent of covariates. Our proposed method is model-agnostic and we show that it improves ICTE accuracy of several existing models.

Vaibhav Raj, Indradyumna Roy, Ashwin Ramachandran et al.

Subgraph matching is vital in knowledge graph (KG) question answering, molecule design, scene graph, code and circuit search, etc. Neural methods have shown promising results for subgraph matching. Our study of recent systems suggests refactoring them into a unified design space for graph matching networks. Existing methods occupy only a few isolated patches in this space, which remains largely uncharted. We undertake the first comprehensive exploration of this space, featuring such axes as attention-based vs. soft permutation-based interaction between query and corpus graphs, aligning nodes vs. edges, and the form of the final scoring network that integrates neural representations of the graphs. Our extensive experiments reveal that judicious and hitherto-unexplored combinations of choices in this space lead to large performance benefits. Beyond better performance, our study uncovers valuable insights and establishes general design principles for neural graph representation and interaction, which may be of wider interest.

Pritish Chakraborty, Vinayak Gupta, Rahul R et al.

Marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) have been shown to be extremely effective in modeling continuous time event sequences (CTESs). In this work, we present adversarial attacks designed specifically for MTPP models. A key criterion for a good adversarial attack is its imperceptibility. For objects such as images or text, this is often achieved by bounding perturbation in some fixed $L_p$ norm-ball. However, similarly minimizing distance norms between two CTESs in the context of MTPPs is challenging due to their sequential nature and varying time-scales and lengths. We address this challenge by first permuting the events and then incorporating the additive noise to the arrival timestamps. However, the worst case optimization of such adversarial attacks is a hard combinatorial problem, requiring exploration across a permutation space that is factorially large in the length of the input sequence. As a result, we propose a novel differentiable scheme PERMTPP using which we can perform adversarial attacks by learning to minimize the likelihood, while minimizing the distance between two CTESs. Our experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the offensive and defensive capabilities, and lower inference times of PERMTPP.

Vedang Asgaonkar, Aditya Jain, Abir De

Given a set of observations, feature acquisition is about finding the subset of unobserved features which would enhance accuracy. Such problems have been explored in a sequential setting in prior work. Here, the model receives feedback from every new feature acquired and chooses to explore more features or to predict. However, sequential acquisition is not feasible in some settings where time is of the essence. We consider the problem of feature acquisition in batch, where the subset of features to be queried in batch is chosen based on the currently observed features, and then acquired as a batch, followed by prediction. We solve this problem using several technical innovations. First, we use a feature generator to draw a subset of the synthetic features for some examples, which reduces the cost of oracle queries. Second, to make the feature acquisition problem tractable for the large heterogeneous observed features, we partition the data into buckets, by borrowing tools from locality sensitive hashing and then train a mixture of experts model. Third, we design a tractable lower bound of the original objective. We use a greedy algorithm combined with model training to solve the underlying problem. Experiments with four datasets show that our approach outperforms these methods in terms of trade-off between accuracy and feature acquisition cost.

Pritish Chakraborty, Indradyumna Roy, Soumen Chakrabarti et al.

Retrieving graphs from a large corpus, that contain a subgraph isomorphic to a given query graph, is a core operation in many real-world applications. While recent multi-vector graph representations and scores based on set alignment and containment can provide accurate subgraph isomorphism tests, their use in retrieval remains limited by their need to score corpus graphs exhaustively. We introduce CORGII (Contextual Representation of Graphs for Inverted Indexing), a graph indexing framework in which, starting with a contextual dense graph representation, a differentiable discretization module computes sparse binary codes over a learned latent vocabulary. This text document-like representation allows us to leverage classic, highly optimized inverted indices, while supporting soft (vector) set containment scores. Pushing this paradigm further, we replace the classical, fixed impact weight of a `token' on a graph (such as TFIDF or BM25) with a data-driven, trainable impact weight. Finally, we explore token expansion to support multi-probing the index for smoother accuracy-efficiency tradeoffs. To our knowledge, CORGII is the first indexer of dense graph representations using discrete tokens mapping to efficient inverted lists. Extensive experiments show that CORGII provides better trade-offs between accuracy and efficiency, compared to several baselines.

Vinayak Gupta, Srikanta Bedathur, Abir De

Recent developments in predictive modeling using marked temporal point processes (MTPP) have enabled an accurate characterization of several real-world applications involving continuous-time event sequences (CTESs). However, the retrieval problem of such sequences remains largely unaddressed in literature. To tackle this, we propose NEUROSEQRET which learns to retrieve and rank a relevant set of continuous-time event sequences for a given query sequence, from a large corpus of sequences. More specifically, NEUROSEQRET first applies a trainable unwarping function on the query sequence, which makes it comparable with corpus sequences, especially when a relevant query-corpus pair has individually different attributes. Next, it feeds the unwarped query sequence and the corpus sequence into MTPP guided neural relevance models. We develop two variants of the relevance model which offer a tradeoff between accuracy and efficiency. We also propose an optimization framework to learn binary sequence embeddings from the relevance scores, suitable for the locality-sensitive hashing leading to a significant speedup in returning top-K results for a given query sequence. Our experiments with several datasets show the significant accuracy boost of NEUROSEQRET beyond several baselines, as well as the efficacy of our hashing mechanism.

Santanu Rathod, Manoj Bhadu, Abir De

Owing to the growth of interest in Reinforcement Learning in the last few years, gradient based policy control methods have been gaining popularity for Control problems as well. And rightly so, since gradient policy methods have the advantage of optimizing a metric of interest in an end-to-end manner, along with being relatively easy to implement without complete knowledge of the underlying system. In this paper, we study the global convergence of gradient-based policy optimization methods for quadratic control of discrete-time and model-free Markovian jump linear systems (MJLS). We surmount myriad challenges that arise because of more than one states coupled with lack of knowledge of the system dynamics and show global convergence of the policy using gradient descent and natural policy gradient methods. We also provide simulation studies to corroborate our claims.

Chitrank Gupta, Yash Jain, Abir De et al.

In recent years, inductive graph embedding models, \emph{viz.}, graph neural networks (GNNs) have become increasingly accurate at link prediction (LP) in online social networks. The performance of such networks depends strongly on the input node features, which vary across networks and applications. Selecting appropriate node features remains application-dependent and generally an open question. Moreover, owing to privacy and ethical issues, use of personalized node features is often restricted. In fact, many publicly available data from online social network do not contain any node features (e.g., demography). In this work, we provide a comprehensive experimental analysis which shows that harnessing a transductive technique (e.g., Node2Vec) for obtaining initial node representations, after which an inductive node embedding technique takes over, leads to substantial improvements in link prediction accuracy. We demonstrate that, for a wide variety of GNN variants, node representation vectors obtained from Node2Vec serve as high quality input features to GNNs, thereby improving LP performance.

Anshul Nasery, Soumyadeep Thakur, Vihari Piratla et al.

In several real world applications, machine learning models are deployed to make predictions on data whose distribution changes gradually along time, leading to a drift between the train and test distributions. Such models are often re-trained on new data periodically, and they hence need to generalize to data not too far into the future. In this context, there is much prior work on enhancing temporal generalization, e.g. continuous transportation of past data, kernel smoothed time-sensitive parameters and more recently, adversarial learning of time-invariant features. However, these methods share several limitations, e.g, poor scalability, training instability, and dependence on unlabeled data from the future. Responding to the above limitations, we propose a simple method that starts with a model with time-sensitive parameters but regularizes its temporal complexity using a Gradient Interpolation (GI) loss. GI allows the decision boundary to change along time and can still prevent overfitting to the limited training time snapshots by allowing task-specific control over changes along time. We compare our method to existing baselines on multiple real-world datasets, which show that GI outperforms more complicated generative and adversarial approaches on the one hand, and simpler gradient regularization methods on the other.

Stratis Tsirtsis, Abir De, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Methods to find counterfactual explanations have predominantly focused on one step decision making processes. In this work, we initiate the development of methods to find counterfactual explanations for decision making processes in which multiple, dependent actions are taken sequentially over time. We start by formally characterizing a sequence of actions and states using finite horizon Markov decision processes and the Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Building upon this characterization, we formally state the problem of finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes. In our problem formulation, the counterfactual explanation specifies an alternative sequence of actions differing in at most k actions from the observed sequence that could have led the observed process realization to a better outcome. Then, we introduce a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming to build a counterfactual policy that is guaranteed to always provide the optimal counterfactual explanation on every possible realization of the counterfactual environment dynamics. We validate our algorithm using both synthetic and real data from cognitive behavioral therapy and show that the counterfactual explanations our algorithm finds can provide valuable insights to enhance sequential decision making under uncertainty.

Stratis Tsirtsis, Abir De, Lars Lorch et al.

Testing is recommended for all close contacts of confirmed COVID-19 patients. However, existing group testing methods are oblivious to the circumstances of contagion provided by contact tracing. Here, we build upon a well-known semi-adaptive pool testing method, Dorfman's method with imperfect tests, and derive a simple group testing method based on dynamic programming that is specifically designed to use the information provided by contact tracing. Experiments using a variety of reproduction numbers and dispersion levels, including those estimated in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, show that the pools found using our method result in a significantly lower number of tests than those found using standard Dorfman's method, especially when the number of contacts of an infected individual is small. Moreover, our results show that our method can be more beneficial when the secondary infections are highly overdispersed.

Durga Sivasubramanian, Rishabh Iyer, Ganesh Ramakrishnan et al.

Data subset selection from a large number of training instances has been a successful approach toward efficient and cost-effective machine learning. However, models trained on a smaller subset may show poor generalization ability. In this paper, our goal is to design an algorithm for selecting a subset of the training data, so that the model can be trained quickly, without significantly sacrificing on accuracy. More specifically, we focus on data subset selection for L2 regularized regression problems and provide a novel problem formulation which seeks to minimize the training loss with respect to both the trainable parameters and the subset of training data, subject to error bounds on the validation set. We tackle this problem using several technical innovations. First, we represent this problem with simplified constraints using the dual of the original training problem and show that the objective of this new representation is a monotone and alpha-submodular function, for a wide variety of modeling choices. Such properties lead us to develop SELCON, an efficient majorization-minimization algorithm for data subset selection, that admits an approximation guarantee even when the training provides an imperfect estimate of the trained model. Finally, our experiments on several datasets show that SELCON trades off accuracy and efficiency more effectively than the current state-of-the-art.

Nastaran Okati, Abir De, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Multiple lines of evidence suggest that predictive models may benefit from algorithmic triage. Under algorithmic triage, a predictive model does not predict all instances but instead defers some of them to human experts. However, the interplay between the prediction accuracy of the model and the human experts under algorithmic triage is not well understood. In this work, we start by formally characterizing under which circumstances a predictive model may benefit from algorithmic triage. In doing so, we also demonstrate that models trained for full automation may be suboptimal under triage. Then, given any model and desired level of triage, we show that the optimal triage policy is a deterministic threshold rule in which triage decisions are derived deterministically by thresholding the difference between the model and human errors on a per-instance level. Building upon these results, we introduce a practical gradient-based algorithm that is guaranteed to find a sequence of triage policies and predictive models of increasing performance. Experiments on a wide variety of supervised learning tasks using synthetic and real data from two important applications -- content moderation and scientific discovery -- illustrate our theoretical results and show that the models and triage policies provided by our gradient-based algorithm outperform those provided by several competitive baselines.

Paramita Koley, Avirup Saha, Sourangshu Bhattacharya et al.

The networked opinion diffusion in online social networks (OSN) is often governed by the two genres of opinions - endogenous opinions that are driven by the influence of social contacts among users, and exogenous opinions which are formed by external effects like news, feeds etc. Accurate demarcation of endogenous and exogenous messages offers an important cue to opinion modeling, thereby enhancing its predictive performance. In this paper, we design a suite of unsupervised classification methods based on experimental design approaches, in which, we aim to select the subsets of events which minimize different measures of mean estimation error. In more detail, we first show that these subset selection tasks are NP-Hard. Then we show that the associated objective functions are weakly submodular, which allows us to cast efficient approximation algorithms with guarantees. Finally, we validate the efficacy of our proposal on various real-world datasets crawled from Twitter as well as diverse synthetic datasets. Our experiments range from validating prediction performance on unsanitized and sanitized events to checking the effect of selecting optimal subsets of various sizes. Through various experiments, we have found that our method offers a significant improvement in accuracy in terms of opinion forecasting, against several competitors.

Prathamesh Deshpande, Kamlesh Marathe, Abir De et al.

In recent years, marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) have emerged as a powerful modeling machinery to characterize asynchronous events in a wide variety of applications. MTPPs have demonstrated significant potential in predicting event-timings, especially for events arriving in near future. However, due to current design choices, MTPPs often show poor predictive performance at forecasting event arrivals in distant future. To ameliorate this limitation, in this paper, we design DualTPP which is specifically well-suited to long horizon event forecasting. DualTPP has two components. The first component is an intensity free MTPP model, which captures microscopic or granular level signals of the event dynamics by modeling the time of future events. The second component takes a different dual perspective of modeling aggregated counts of events in a given time-window, thus encapsulating macroscopic event dynamics. Then we develop a novel inference framework jointly over the two models % for efficiently forecasting long horizon events by solving a sequence of constrained quadratic optimization problems. Experiments with a diverse set of real datasets show that DualTPP outperforms existing MTPP methods on long horizon forecasting by substantial margins, achieving almost an order of magnitude reduction in Wasserstein distance between actual events and forecasts.

Indradyumna Roy, Abir De, Soumen Chakrabarti

After observing a snapshot of a social network, a link prediction (LP) algorithm identifies node pairs between which new edges will likely materialize in future. Most LP algorithms estimate a score for currently non-neighboring node pairs, and rank them by this score. Recent LP systems compute this score by comparing dense, low dimensional vector representations of nodes. Graph neural networks (GNNs), in particular graph convolutional networks (GCNs), are popular examples. For two nodes to be meaningfully compared, their embeddings should be indifferent to reordering of their neighbors. GNNs typically use simple, symmetric set aggregators to ensure this property, but this design decision has been shown to produce representations with limited expressive power. Sequence encoders are more expressive, but are permutation sensitive by design. Recent efforts to overcome this dilemma turn out to be unsatisfactory for LP tasks. In response, we propose PermGNN, which aggregates neighbor features using a recurrent, order-sensitive aggregator and directly minimizes an LP loss while it is `attacked' by adversarial generator of neighbor permutations. By design, PermGNN{} has more expressive power compared to earlier symmetric aggregators. Next, we devise an optimization framework to map PermGNN's node embeddings to a suitable locality-sensitive hash, which speeds up reporting the top-$K$ most likely edges for the LP task. Our experiments on diverse datasets show that \our outperforms several state-of-the-art link predictors by a significant margin, and can predict the most likely edges fast.

Abir De, Nastaran Okati, Ali Zarezade et al.

Most supervised learning models are trained for full automation. However, their predictions are sometimes worse than those by human experts on some specific instances. Motivated by this empirical observation, our goal is to design classifiers that are optimized to operate under different automation levels. More specifically, we focus on convex margin-based classifiers and first show that the problem is NP-hard. Then, we further show that, for support vector machines, the corresponding objective function can be expressed as the difference of two functions f = g - c, where g is monotone, non-negative and γ-weakly submodular, and c is non-negative and modular. This representation allows a recently introduced deterministic greedy algorithm, as well as a more efficient randomized variant of the algorithm, to enjoy approximation guarantees at solving the problem. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data from several applications in medical diagnosis illustrate our theoretical findings and demonstrate that, under human assistance, supervised learning models trained to operate under different automation levels can outperform those trained for full automation as well as humans operating alone.

Vahid Balazadeh, Abir De, Adish Singla et al.

Reinforcement learning agents have been mostly developed and evaluated under the assumption that they will operate in a fully autonomous manner -- they will take all actions. In this work, our goal is to develop algorithms that, by learning to switch control between agents, allow existing reinforcement learning agents to operate under different automation levels. To this end, we first formally define the problem of learning to switch control among agents in a team via a 2-layer Markov decision process. Then, we develop an online learning algorithm that uses upper confidence bounds on the agents' policies and the environment's transition probabilities to find a sequence of switching policies. The total regret of our algorithm with respect to the optimal switching policy is sublinear in the number of learning steps and, whenever multiple teams of agents operate in a similar environment, our algorithm greatly benefits from maintaining shared confidence bounds for the environments' transition probabilities and it enjoys a better regret bound than problem-agnostic algorithms. Simulation experiments in an obstacle avoidance task illustrate our theoretical findings and demonstrate that, by exploiting the specific structure of the problem, our proposed algorithm is superior to problem-agnostic algorithms.

Abir De, Nastaran Okati, Paramita Koley et al.

Decisions are increasingly taken by both humans and machine learning models. However, machine learning models are currently trained for full automation -- they are not aware that some of the decisions may still be taken by humans. In this paper, we take a first step towards the development of machine learning models that are optimized to operate under different automation levels. More specifically, we first introduce the problem of ridge regression under human assistance and show that it is NP-hard. Then, we derive an alternative representation of the corresponding objective function as a difference of nondecreasing submodular functions. Building on this representation, we further show that the objective is nondecreasing and satisfies $α$-submodularity, a recently introduced notion of approximate submodularity. These properties allow a simple and efficient greedy algorithm to enjoy approximation guarantees at solving the problem. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data from two important applications -- medical diagnosis and content moderation-demonstrate that our algorithm outsources to humans those samples in which the prediction error of the ridge regression model would have been the highest if it had to make a prediction, it outperforms several competitive baselines, and its performance is robust with respect to several design choices and hyperparameters used in the experiments.

Abir De, Adish Singla, Utkarsh Upadhyay et al.

Whenever a social media user decides to share a story, she is typically pleased to receive likes, comments, shares, or, more generally, feedback from her followers. As a result, she may feel compelled to use the feedback she receives to (re-)estimate her followers' preferences and decides which stories to share next to receive more (positive) feedback. Under which conditions can she succeed? In this work, we first look into this problem from a theoretical perspective and then provide a set of practical algorithms to identify and characterize such behavior in social media. More specifically, we address the above problem from the viewpoint of sequential decision making and utility maximization. For a wide variety of utility functions, we first show that, to succeed, a user needs to actively trade off exploitation-- sharing stories which lead to more (positive) feedback--and exploration-- sharing stories to learn about her followers' preferences. However, exploration is not necessary if a user utilizes the feedback her followers provide to other users in addition to the feedback she receives. Then, we develop a utility estimation framework for observation data, which relies on statistical hypothesis testing to determine whether a user utilizes the feedback she receives from each of her followers to decide what to post next. Experiments on synthetic data illustrate our theoretical findings and show that our estimation framework is able to accurately recover users' underlying utility functions. Experiments on several real datasets gathered from Twitter and Reddit reveal that up to 82% (43%) of the Twitter (Reddit) users in our datasets do use the feedback they receive to decide what to post next.

Abir De, Soumen Chakrabarti

Link prediction (LP) algorithms propose to each node a ranked list of nodes that are currently non-neighbors, as the most likely candidates for future linkage. Owing to increasing concerns about privacy, users (nodes) may prefer to keep some of their connections protected or private. Motivated by this observation, our goal is to design a differentially private LP algorithm, which trades off between privacy of the protected node-pairs and the link prediction accuracy. More specifically, we first propose a form of differential privacy on graphs, which models the privacy loss only of those node-pairs which are marked as protected. Next, we develop DPLP , a learning to rank algorithm, which applies a monotone transform to base scores from a non-private LP system, and then adds noise. DPLP is trained with a privacy induced ranking loss, which optimizes the ranking utility for a given maximum allowed level of privacy leakage of the protected node-pairs. Under a recently-introduced latent node embedding model, we present a formal trade-off between privacy and LP utility. Extensive experiments with several real-life graphs and several LP heuristics show that DPLP can trade off between privacy and predictive performance more effectively than several alternatives.

Behzad Tabibian, Vicenç Gómez, Abir De et al.

Ranking models are typically designed to provide rankings that optimize some measure of immediate utility to the users. As a result, they have been unable to anticipate an increasing number of undesirable long-term consequences of their proposed rankings, from fueling the spread of misinformation and increasing polarization to degrading social discourse. Can we design ranking models that understand the consequences of their proposed rankings and, more importantly, are able to avoid the undesirable ones? In this paper, we first introduce a joint representation of rankings and user dynamics using Markov decision processes. Then, we show that this representation greatly simplifies the construction of consequential ranking models that trade off the immediate utility and the long-term welfare. In particular, we can obtain optimal consequential rankings just by applying weighted sampling on the rankings provided by models that maximize measures of immediate utility. However, in practice, such a strategy may be inefficient and impractical, specially in high dimensional scenarios. To overcome this, we introduce an efficient gradient-based algorithm to learn parameterized consequential ranking models that effectively approximate optimal ones. We showcase our methodology using synthetic and real data gathered from Reddit and show that ranking models derived using our methodology provide ranks that may mitigate the spread of misinformation and improve the civility of online discussions.

Lars Lorch, Abir De, Samir Bhatt et al.

We approach the development of models and control strategies of susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic processes from the perspective of marked temporal point processes and stochastic optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with jumps. In contrast to previous work, this novel perspective is particularly well-suited to make use of fine-grained data about disease outbreaks and lets us overcome the shortcomings of current control strategies. Our control strategy resorts to treatment intensities to determine who to treat and when to do so to minimize the amount of infected individuals over time. Preliminary experiments with synthetic data show that our control strategy consistently outperforms several alternatives. Looking into the future, we believe our methodology provides a promising step towards the development of practical data-driven control strategies of epidemic processes.

Utkarsh Upadhyay, Abir De, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

In a wide variety of applications, humans interact with a complex environment by means of asynchronous stochastic discrete events in continuous time. Can we design online interventions that will help humans achieve certain goals in such asynchronous setting? In this paper, we address the above problem from the perspective of deep reinforcement learning of marked temporal point processes, where both the actions taken by an agent and the feedback it receives from the environment are asynchronous stochastic discrete events characterized using marked temporal point processes. In doing so, we define the agent's policy using the intensity and mark distribution of the corresponding process and then derive a flexible policy gradient method, which embeds the agent's actions and the feedback it receives into real-valued vectors using deep recurrent neural networks. Our method does not make any assumptions on the functional form of the intensity and mark distribution of the feedback and it allows for arbitrarily complex reward functions. We apply our methodology to two different applications in personalized teaching and viral marketing and, using data gathered from Duolingo and Twitter, we show that it may be able to find interventions to help learners and marketers achieve their goals more effectively than alternatives.

Utkarsh Upadhyay, Abir De, Aasish Pappu et al.

In an increasingly polarized world, demagogues who reduce complexity down to simple arguments based on emotion are gaining in popularity. Are opinions and online discussions falling into demagoguery? In this work, we aim to provide computational tools to investigate this question and, by doing so, explore the nature and complexity of online discussions and their space of opinions, uncovering where each participant lies. More specifically, we present a modeling framework to construct latent representations of opinions in online discussions which are consistent with human judgements, as measured by online voting. If two opinions are close in the resulting latent space of opinions, it is because humans think they are similar. Our modeling framework is theoretically grounded and establishes a surprising connection between opinions and voting models and the sign-rank of a matrix. Moreover, it also provides a set of practical algorithms to both estimate the dimension of the latent space of opinions and infer where opinions expressed by the participants of an online discussion lie in this space. Experiments on a large dataset from Yahoo! News, Yahoo! Finance, Yahoo! Sports, and the Newsroom app suggest that unidimensional opinion models may often be unable to accurately represent online discussions, provide insights into human judgements and opinions, and show that our framework is able to circumvent language nuances such as sarcasm or humor by relying on human judgements instead of textual analysis.

Ali Zarezade, Abir De, Utkarsh Upadhyay et al.

User engagement in online social networking depends critically on the level of social activity in the corresponding platform--the number of online actions, such as posts, shares or replies, taken by their users. Can we design data-driven algorithms to increase social activity? At a user level, such algorithms may increase activity by helping users decide when to take an action to be more likely to be noticed by their peers. At a network level, they may increase activity by incentivizing a few influential users to take more actions, which in turn will trigger additional actions by other users. In this paper, we model social activity using the framework of marked temporal point processes, derive an alternate representation of these processes using stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with jumps and, exploiting this alternate representation, develop two efficient online algorithms with provable guarantees to steer social activity both at a user and at a network level. In doing so, we establish a previously unexplored connection between optimal control of jump SDEs and doubly stochastic marked temporal point processes, which is of independent interest. Finally, we experiment both with synthetic and real data gathered from Twitter and show that our algorithms consistently steer social activity more effectively than the state of the art.

Bidisha Samanta, Abir De, Gourhari Jana et al.

Deep generative models have been praised for their ability to learn smooth latent representation of images, text, and audio, which can then be used to generate new, plausible data. However, current generative models are unable to work with molecular graphs due to their unique characteristics-their underlying structure is not Euclidean or grid-like, they remain isomorphic under permutation of the nodes labels, and they come with a different number of nodes and edges. In this paper, we first propose a novel variational autoencoder for molecular graphs, whose encoder and decoder are specially designed to account for the above properties by means of several technical innovations. Moreover, in contrast with the state of the art, our decoder is able to provide the spatial coordinates of the atoms of the molecules it generates. Then, we develop a gradient-based algorithm to optimize the decoder of our model so that it learns to generate molecules that maximize the value of certain property of interest and, given a molecule of interest, it is able to optimize the spatial configuration of its atoms for greater stability. Experiments reveal that our variational autoencoder can discover plausible, diverse and novel molecules more effectively than several state of the art models. Moreover, for several properties of interest, our optimized decoder is able to identify molecules with property values 121% higher than those identified by several state of the art methods based on Bayesian optimization and reinforcement learning

Behzad Tabibian, Utkarsh Upadhyay, Abir De et al.

Spaced repetition is a technique for efficient memorization which uses repeated, spaced review of content to improve long-term retention. Can we find the optimal reviewing schedule to maximize the benefits of spaced repetition? In this paper, we introduce a novel, flexible representation of spaced repetition using the framework of marked temporal point processes and then address the above question as an optimal control problem for stochastic differential equations with jumps. For two well-known human memory models, we show that the optimal reviewing schedule is given by the recall probability of the content to be learned. As a result, we can then develop a simple, scalable online algorithm, Memorize, to sample the optimal reviewing times. Experiments on both synthetic and real data gathered from Duolingo, a popular language-learning online platform, show that our algorithm may be able to help learners memorize more effectively than alternatives.

Ali Zarezade, Abir De, Hamid Rabiee et al.

User engagement in social networks depends critically on the number of online actions their users take in the network. Can we design an algorithm that finds when to incentivize users to take actions to maximize the overall activity in a social network? In this paper, we model the number of online actions over time using multidimensional Hawkes processes, derive an alternate representation of these processes based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with jumps and, exploiting this alternate representation, address the above question from the perspective of stochastic optimal control of SDEs with jumps. We find that the optimal level of incentivized actions depends linearly on the current level of overall actions. Moreover, the coefficients of this linear relationship can be found by solving a matrix Riccati differential equation, which can be solved efficiently, and a first order differential equation, which has a closed form solution. As a result, we are able to design an efficient online algorithm, Cheshire, to sample the optimal times of the users' incentivized actions. Experiments on both synthetic and real data gathered from Twitter show that our algorithm is able to consistently maximize the number of online actions more effectively than the state of the art.

Abir De, Niloy Ganguly, Soumen Chakrabarti

A link prediction (LP) algorithm is given a graph, and has to rank, for each node, other nodes that are candidates for new linkage. LP is strongly motivated by social search and recommendation applications. LP techniques often focus on global properties (graph conductance, hitting or commute times, Katz score) or local properties (Adamic-Adar and many variations, or node feature vectors), but rarely combine these signals. Furthermore, neither of these extremes exploit link densities at the intermediate level of communities. In this paper we describe a discriminative LP algorithm that exploits two new signals. First, a co-clustering algorithm provides community level link density estimates, which are used to qualify observed links with a surprise value. Second, links in the immediate neighborhood of the link to be predicted are not interpreted at face value, but through a local model of node feature similarities. These signals are combined into a discriminative link predictor. We evaluate the new predictor using five diverse data sets that are standard in the literature. We report on significant accuracy boosts compared to standard LP methods (including Adamic-Adar and random walk). Apart from the new predictor, another contribution is a rigorous protocol for benchmarking and reporting LP algorithms, which reveals the regions of strengths and weaknesses of all the predictors studied here, and establishes the new proposal as the most robust.