Lawrence A. Bull

L. A. Bull, D. Di Francesco, M. Dhada et al.

A population-level analysis is proposed to address data sparsity when building predictive models for engineering infrastructure. Utilising an interpretable hierarchical Bayesian approach and operational fleet data, domain expertise is naturally encoded (and appropriately shared) between different sub-groups, representing (i) use-type, (ii) component, or (iii) operating condition. Specifically, domain expertise is exploited to constrain the model via assumptions (and prior distributions) allowing the methodology to automatically share information between similar assets, improving the survival analysis of a truck fleet and power prediction in a wind farm. In each asset management example, a set of correlated functions is learnt over the fleet, in a combined inference, to learn a population model. Parameter estimation is improved when sub-fleets share correlated information at different levels of the hierarchy. In turn, groups with incomplete data automatically borrow statistical strength from those that are data-rich. The statistical correlations enable knowledge transfer via Bayesian transfer learning, and the correlations can be inspected to inform which assets share information for which effect (i.e. parameter). Both case studies demonstrate the wide applicability to practical infrastructure monitoring, since the approach is naturally adapted between interpretable fleet models of different in situ examples.

Jack Poole, Paul Gardner, Nikolaos Dervilis et al.

The practical application of structural health monitoring (SHM) is often limited by the availability of labelled data. Transfer learning - specifically in the form of domain adaptation (DA) - gives rise to the possibility of leveraging information from a population of physical or numerical structures, by inferring a mapping that aligns the feature spaces. Typical DA methods rely on nonparametric distance metrics, which require sufficient data to perform density estimation. In addition, these methods can be prone to performance degradation under class imbalance. To address these issues, statistic alignment (SA) is discussed, with a demonstration of how these methods can be made robust to class imbalance, including a special case of class imbalance called a partial DA scenario. SA is demonstrated to facilitate damage localisation with no target labels in a numerical case study, outperforming other state-of-the-art DA methods. It is then shown to be capable of aligning the feature spaces of a real heterogeneous population, the Z24 and KW51 bridges, with only 220 samples used from the KW51 bridge. Finally, in scenarios where more complex mappings are required for knowledge transfer, SA is shown to be a vital pre-processing tool, increasing the performance of established DA methods.

Tina A Dardeno, Lawrence A Bull, Robin S Mills et al.

Structural health monitoring (SHM) has been an active research area for the last three decades, and has accumulated a number of critical advances over that period, as can be seen in the literature. However, SHM is still facing challenges because of the paucity of damage-state data, operational and environmental fluctuations, repeatability issues, and changes in boundary conditions. These issues present as inconsistencies in the captured features and can have a huge impact on the practical implementation, but more critically, on the generalisation of the technology. Population-based SHM has been designed to address some of these concerns by modelling and transferring missing information using data collected from groups of similar structures. In this work, vibration data were collected from four healthy, nominally-identical, full-scale composite helicopter blades. Manufacturing differences (e.g., slight differences in geometry and/or material properties), among the blades presented as variability in their structural dynamics, which can be very problematic for SHM based on machine learning from vibration data. This work aims to address this variability by defining a general model for the frequency response functions of the blades, called a form, using mixtures of Gaussian processes.

Daniel R. Clarkson, Lawrence A. Bull, Chandula T. Wickramarachchi et al.

Regression is a fundamental prediction task common in data-centric engineering applications that involves learning mappings between continuous variables. In many engineering applications (e.g.\ structural health monitoring), feature-label pairs used to learn such mappings are of limited availability which hinders the effectiveness of traditional supervised machine learning approaches. The current paper proposes a methodology for overcoming the issue of data scarcity by combining active learning with hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Active learning is an approach for preferentially acquiring feature-label pairs in a resource-efficient manner. In particular, the current work adopts a risk-informed approach that leverages contextual information associated with regression-based engineering decision-making tasks (e.g.\ inspection and maintenance). Hierarchical Bayesian modelling allow multiple related regression tasks to be learned over a population, capturing local and global effects. The information sharing facilitated by this modelling approach means that information acquired for one engineering system can improve predictive performance across the population. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using an experimental case study. Specifically, multiple regressions are performed over a population of machining tools, where the quantity of interest is the surface roughness of the workpieces. An inspection and maintenance decision process is defined using these regression tasks which is in turn used to construct the active-learning algorithm. The novel methodology proposed is benchmarked against an uninformed approach to label acquisition and independent modelling of the regression tasks. It is shown that the proposed approach has superior performance in terms of expected cost -- maintaining predictive performance while reducing the number of inspections required.

Simon M. Brealy, Aidan J. Hughes, Tina A. Dardeno et al.

Population-based structural health monitoring (PBSHM), aims to share information between members of a population. An offshore wind (OW) farm could be considered as a population of nominally-identical wind-turbine structures. However, benign variations exist among members, such as geometry, sea-bed conditions and temperature differences. These factors could influence structural properties and therefore the dynamic response, making it more difficult to detect structural problems via traditional SHM techniques. This paper explores the use of a Bayesian hierarchical model as a means of multitask learning, to infer foundation stiffness distribution parameters at both population and local levels. To do this, observations of natural frequency from populations of structures were first generated from both numerical and experimental models. These observations were then used in a partially-pooled Bayesian hierarchical model in tandem with surrogate FE models of the structures to infer foundation stiffness parameters. Finally, it is demonstrated how the learned parameters may be used as a basis to perform more robust anomaly detection (as compared to a no-pooling approach) e.g. as a result of scour.

Daniel R. Clarkson, Lawrence A. Bull, Tina A. Dardeno et al.

At present, most surface-quality prediction methods can only perform single-task prediction which results in under-utilised datasets, repetitive work and increased experimental costs. To counter this, the authors propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to predict surface-roughness measurements for a turning machining process. The hierarchical model is compared to multiple independent Bayesian linear regression models to showcase the benefits of partial pooling in a machining setting with respect to prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

Simon M. Brealy, Lawrence A. Bull, Daniel S. Brennan et al.

Population-based Structural Health Monitoring (PBSHM) aims to share information between similar machines or structures. This paper takes a population-level perspective, exploring the use of additive Gaussian processes to reveal variations in turbine-specific and farm-level power models over a collected wind farm dataset. The predictions illustrate patterns in wind farm power generation, which follow intuition and should enable more informed control and decision-making.

Aidan J. Hughes, Lawrence A. Bull, Paul Gardner et al.

Risk-based active learning is an approach to developing statistical classifiers for online decision-support. In this approach, data-label querying is guided according to the expected value of perfect information for incipient data points. For SHM applications, the value of information is evaluated with respect to a maintenance decision process, and the data-label querying corresponds to the inspection of a structure to determine its health state. Sampling bias is a known issue within active-learning paradigms; this occurs when an active learning process over- or undersamples specific regions of a feature-space, thereby resulting in a training set that is not representative of the underlying distribution. This bias ultimately degrades decision-making performance, and as a consequence, results in unnecessary costs incurred. The current paper outlines a risk-based approach to active learning that utilises a semi-supervised Gaussian mixture model. The semi-supervised approach counteracts sampling bias by incorporating pseudo-labels for unlabelled data via an EM algorithm. The approach is demonstrated on a numerical example representative of the decision processes found in SHM.

Tina A. Dardeno, Lawrence A. Bull, Nikolaos Dervilis et al.

Reductions in natural frequency are often used as a damage indicator for structural health monitoring (SHM) purposes. However, fluctuations in operational and environmental conditions, changes in boundary conditions, and slight differences among nominally-identical structures can also affect stiffness, producing frequency changes that mimic or mask damage. This variability has limited the practical implementation and generalisation of SHM technologies. The aim of this work is to investigate the effects of normal variation, and to identify methods that account for the resulting uncertainty. This work considers vibration data collected from a set of four healthy full-scale composite helicopter blades. The blades were nominally-identical but distinct, and slight differences in material properties and geometry among the blades caused significant variability in the frequency response functions, which presented as four separate trajectories across the input space. In this paper, an overlapping mixture of Gaussian processes (OMGP), was used to generate labels and quantify the uncertainty of normal-condition frequency response data from the helicopter blades. Using a population-based approach, the OMGP model provided a generic representation, called a form, to characterise the normal condition of the blades. Additional simulated data were then compared against the form and evaluated for damage using a marginal-likelihood novelty index.

Aidan J. Hughes, Paul Gardner, Lawrence A. Bull et al.

Gaining the ability to make informed decisions on operation and maintenance of structures provides motivation for the implementation of structural health monitoring (SHM) systems. However, descriptive labels for measured data corresponding to health-states of the monitored system are often unavailable. This issue limits the applicability of fully-supervised machine learning paradigms for the development of statistical classifiers to be used in decision-support in SHM systems. One approach to dealing with this problem is risk-based active learning. In such an approach, data-label querying is guided according to the expected value of perfect information for incipient data points. For risk-based active learning in SHM, the value of information is evaluated with respect to a maintenance decision process, and the data-label querying corresponds to the inspection of a structure to determine its health state. In the context of SHM, risk-based active learning has only been considered for generative classifiers. The current paper demonstrates several advantages of using an alternative type of classifier -- discriminative models. Using the Z24 Bridge dataset as a case study, it is shown that discriminative classifiers have benefits, in the context of SHM decision-support, including improved robustness to sampling bias, and reduced expenditure on structural inspections.

S. M. Smith, A. J. Hughes, T. A. Dardeno et al.

Population-based structural health monitoring (PBSHM), aims to share information between members of a population. An offshore wind (OW) farm could be considered as a population of nominally-identical wind-turbine structures. However, benign variations exist among members, such as geometry, sea-bed conditions and temperature differences. These factors could influence structural properties and therefore the dynamic response, making it more difficult to detect structural problems via traditional SHM techniques. This paper explores the use of a hierarchical Bayesian model to infer expected soil stiffness distributions at both population and local levels, as a basis to perform anomaly detection, in the form of scour, for new and existing turbines. To do this, observations of natural frequency will be generated as though they are from a small population of wind turbines. Differences between individual observations will be introduced by postulating distributions over the soil stiffness and measurement noise, as well as reducing soil depth (to represent scour), in the case of anomaly detection.

S C Bee, N Dervilis, K Worden et al.

Equation discovery provides a grey-box approach to system identification by uncovering governing dynamics directly from observed data. However, a persistent challenge lies in ensuring that identified models generalise across operating conditions rather than over-fitting to specific datasets. This work investigates this issue by applying a Bayesian relevance vector machine (RVM) within a multi-task learning (MTL) framework for simultaneous parameter identification across multiple datasets. In this formulation, responses from the same structure under different excitation levels are treated as related tasks that share model parameters but retain task-specific noise characteristics. A simulated single degree-of-freedom oscillator with linear and cubic stiffness provided the case study, with datasets generated under three excitation regimes. Standard single-task RVM models were able to reproduce system responses but often failed to recover the true governing terms when excitations insufficiently stimulated non-linear dynamics. By contrast, the MTL-RVM combined information across tasks, improving parameter recovery for weakly and moderately excited datasets, while maintaining strong performance under high excitation. These findings demonstrate that multi-task Bayesian inference can mitigate over-fitting and promote generalisation in equation discovery. The approach is particularly relevant to structural health monitoring, where varying load conditions reveal complementary aspects of system physics.

Simon M. Brealy, Lawrence A. Bull, Pauline Beltrando et al.

Because of the global need to increase power production from renewable energy resources, developments in the online monitoring of the associated infrastructure is of interest to reduce operation and maintenance costs. However, challenges exist for data-driven approaches to this problem, such as incomplete or limited histories of labelled damage-state data, operational and environmental variability, or the desire for the quantification of uncertainty to support risk management. This work first introduces a probabilistic regression model for predicting wind-turbine power, which adjusts for wake effects learnt from data. Spatial correlations in the learned model parameters for different tasks (turbines) are then leveraged in a hierarchical Bayesian model (an approach to multi-task learning) to develop a "metamodel", which can be used to make power-predictions which adjust for turbine location - including on previously unobserved turbines not included in the training data. The results show that the metamodel is able to outperform a series of benchmark models, and demonstrates a novel strategy for making efficient use of data for inference in populations of structures, in particular where correlations exist in the variable(s) of interest (such as those from wind-turbine wake-effects).

Sarah Bee, Lawrence Bull, Nikolaos Dervilis et al.

A Nonlinear Auto-Regressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) model can be used to describe time-varying processes; where the output depends on both previous outputs and current/previous external input variables. One limitation of NARX models is their propensity to overfit and result in poor generalisation for future predictions. The proposed method to help to overcome the issue of overfitting is a NARX model which predicts outputs at both the current time and several lead times into the future. This is a form of multi-task learner (MTL); whereby the lead time outputs will regularise the current time output. This work shows that for high noise level, MTL can be used to regularise NARX with a lower Normalised Mean Square Error (NMSE) compared to the NMSE of the independent learner counterpart.

Tina A. Dardeno, Lawrence A. Bull, Nikolaos Dervilis et al.

Despite recent advances in population-based structural health monitoring (PBSHM), knowledge transfer between highly-disparate structures (i.e., heterogeneous populations) remains a challenge. It has been proposed that heterogeneous transfer may be accomplished via intermediate structures that bridge the gap in information between the structures of interest. A key aspect of the technique is the idea that by varying parameters such as material properties and geometry, one structure can be continuously morphed into another. The current work demonstrates the development of these interpolating structures, via case studies involving the parameterisation of (and transfer between) a simple, simulated 'bridge' and 'aeroplane'. The facetious question 'When is a bridge not an aeroplane?' has been previously asked in the context of predicting positive transfer based on structural similarity. While the obvious answer to this question is 'Always,' the current work demonstrates that in some cases positive transfer can be achieved between highly-disparate systems.

Sarah Bee, Lawrence Bull, Nikolas Dervilis et al.

Multi-task neural networks learn tasks simultaneously to improve individual task performance. There are three mechanisms of multi-task learning (MTL) which are explored here for the context of structural health monitoring (SHM): (i) the natural occurrence of multiple tasks; (ii) using outputs as inputs (both linked to the recent research in population-based SHM (PBSHM)); and, (iii) additional loss functions to provide different insights. Each of these problem settings for MTL is detailed and an example is given.

Lawrence A. Bull, Matthew R. Jones, Elizabeth J. Cross et al.

In practice, non-destructive testing (NDT) procedures tend to consider experiments (and their respective models) as distinct, conducted in isolation and associated with independent data. In contrast, this work looks to capture the interdependencies between acoustic emission (AE) experiments (as meta-models) and then use the resulting functions to predict the model hyperparameters for previously unobserved systems. We utilise a Bayesian multilevel approach (similar to deep Gaussian Processes) where a higher level meta-model captures the inter-task relationships. Our key contribution is how knowledge of the experimental campaign can be encoded between tasks as well as within tasks. We present an example of AE time-of-arrival mapping for source localisation, to illustrate how multilevel models naturally lend themselves to representing aggregate systems in engineering. We constrain the meta-model based on domain knowledge, then use the inter-task functions for transfer learning, predicting hyperparameters for models of previously unobserved experiments (for a specific design).

Aidan J. Hughes, Lawrence A. Bull, Paul Gardner et al.

Classification models are a fundamental component of physical-asset management technologies such as structural health monitoring (SHM) systems and digital twins. Previous work introduced risk-based active learning, an online approach for the development of statistical classifiers that takes into account the decision-support context in which they are applied. Decision-making is considered by preferentially querying data labels according to expected value of perfect information (EVPI). Although several benefits are gained by adopting a risk-based active learning approach, including improved decision-making performance, the algorithms suffer from issues relating to sampling bias as a result of the guided querying process. This sampling bias ultimately manifests as a decline in decision-making performance during the later stages of active learning, which in turn corresponds to lost resource/utility. The current paper proposes two novel approaches to counteract the effects of sampling bias: semi-supervised learning, and discriminative classification models. These approaches are first visualised using a synthetic dataset, then subsequently applied to an experimental case study, specifically, the Z24 Bridge dataset. The semi-supervised learning approach is shown to have variable performance; with robustness to sampling bias dependent on the suitability of the generative distributions selected for the model with respect to each dataset. In contrast, the discriminative classifiers are shown to have excellent robustness to the effects of sampling bias. Moreover, it was found that the number of inspections made during a monitoring campaign, and therefore resource expenditure, could be reduced with the careful selection of the statistical classifiers used within a decision-supporting monitoring system.

L. A. Bull, P. A. Gardner, T. J. Rogers et al.

Power curves capture the relationship between wind speed and output power for a specific wind turbine. Accurate regression models of this function prove useful in monitoring, maintenance, design, and planning. In practice, however, the measurements do not always correspond to the ideal curve: power curtailments will appear as (additional) functional components. Such multivalued relationships cannot be modelled by conventional regression, and the associated data are usually removed during pre-processing. The current work suggests an alternative method to infer multivalued relationships in curtailed power data. Using a population-based approach, an overlapping mixture of probabilistic regression models is applied to signals recorded from turbines within an operational wind farm. The model is shown to provide an accurate representation of practical power data across the population.

A. J. Hughes, L. A. Bull, P. Gardner et al.

A primary motivation for the development and implementation of structural health monitoring systems, is the prospect of gaining the ability to make informed decisions regarding the operation and maintenance of structures and infrastructure. Unfortunately, descriptive labels for measured data corresponding to health-state information for the structure of interest are seldom available prior to the implementation of a monitoring system. This issue limits the applicability of the traditional supervised and unsupervised approaches to machine learning in the development of statistical classifiers for decision-supporting SHM systems. The current paper presents a risk-based formulation of active learning, in which the querying of class-label information is guided by the expected value of said information for each incipient data point. When applied to structural health monitoring, the querying of class labels can be mapped onto the inspection of a structure of interest in order to determine its health state. In the current paper, the risk-based active learning process is explained and visualised via a representative numerical example and subsequently applied to the Z24 Bridge benchmark. The results of the case studies indicate that a decision-maker's performance can be improved via the risk-based active learning of a statistical classifier, such that the decision process itself is taken into account.