Elena Ballante

Federico Maria Quetti, Elena Ballante, Silvia Figini et al.

A major limitation of clustering approaches is their lack of explainability: methods rarely provide insight into which features drive the grouping of similar observations. To address this limitation, we propose an ensemble-based clustering framework that integrates bagging and feature dropout to generate feature importance scores, in analogy with feature importance mechanisms in supervised random forests. By leveraging multiple bootstrap resampling schemes and aggregating the resulting partitions, the method improves stability and robustness of the cluster definition, particularly in small-sample or noisy settings. Feature importance is assessed through an information-theoretic approach: at each step, the mutual information between each feature and the estimated cluster labels is computed and weighted by a measure of clustering validity to emphasize well-formed partitions, before being aggregated into a final score. The method outputs both a consensus partition and a corresponding measure of feature importance, enabling a unified interpretation of clustering structure and variable relevance. Its effectiveness is demonstrated on multiple simulated and real-world datasets.

Federico Maria Quetti, Silvia Figini, Elena ballante

The paper presents a novel approach for unsupervised techniques in the field of clustering. A new method is proposed to enhance existing literature models using the proper Bayesian bootstrap to improve results in terms of robustness and interpretability. Our approach is organized in two steps: k-means clustering is used for prior elicitation, then proper Bayesian bootstrap is applied as resampling method in an ensemble clustering approach. Results are analyzed introducing measures of uncertainty based on Shannon entropy. The proposal provides clear indication on the optimal number of clusters, as well as a better representation of the clustered data. Empirical results are provided on simulated data showing the methodological and empirical advances obtained.

Elena Ballante, Pietro Muliere, Silvia Figini

This paper proposes a new class of predictive models for survival analysis called Generalized Bayesian Ensemble Survival Tree (GBEST). It is well known that survival analysis poses many different challenges, in particular when applied to small data or censorship mechanism. Our contribution is the proposal of an ensemble approach that uses Bayesian bootstrap and beta Stacy bootstrap methods to improve the outcome in survival application with a special focus on small datasets. More precisely, a novel approach to integrate Beta Stacy Bayesian bootstrap in bagging tree models for censored data is proposed in this paper. Empirical evidence achieved on simulated and real data underlines that our approach performs better in terms of predictive performances and stability of the results compared with classical survival models available in the literature. In terms of methodology our novel contribution considers the adaptation of recent Bayesian ensemble approaches to survival data, providing a new model called Generalized Bayesian Ensemble Survival Tree (GBEST). A further result in terms of computational novelty is the implementation in R of GBEST, available in a public GitHub repository.

Elena Ballante, Pierpaolo Uberti, Silvia Figini

This paper introduces a novel approach to assess model performance for predictive models characterized by an ordinal target variable in order to satisfy the lack of suitable tools in this framework. Our methodological proposal is a new index for model assessment which satisfies mathematical properties and can be easily computed. In order to show how our performance indicator works, empirical evidence achieved on a toy examples and simulated data are provided. On the basis of results at hand, we underline that our approach discriminates better for model selection with respect to performance indexes proposed in the literature.