Alisa Sheinkman

Alisa Sheinkman, Sara Wade

As modern neural networks get more complex, specifying a model with high predictive performance and sound uncertainty quantification becomes a more challenging task. Despite some promising theoretical results on the true posterior predictive distribution of Bayesian neural networks, the properties of even the most commonly used posterior approximations are often questioned. Computational burdens and intractable posteriors expose miscalibrated Bayesian neural networks to poor accuracy and unreliable uncertainty estimates. Approximate Bayesian inference aims to replace unknown and intractable posterior distributions with some simpler but feasible distributions. The dimensions of modern deep models, coupled with the lack of identifiability, make Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) tremendously expensive and unable to fully explore the multimodal posterior. On the other hand, variational inference benefits from improved computational complexity but lacks the asymptotical guarantees of sampling-based inference and tends to concentrate around a single mode. The performance of both approaches heavily depends on architectural choices; this paper aims to shed some light on this by considering the computational costs, accuracy and uncertainty quantification in different scenarios including large width and out-of-sample data. To improve posterior exploration, different model averaging and ensembling techniques are studied, along with their benefits on predictive performance. In our experiments, variational inference overall provided better uncertainty quantification than MCMC; further, stacking and ensembles of variational approximations provided comparable accuracy to MCMC at a much-reduced cost.

Elizaveta Semenova, Alisa Sheinkman, Timothy James Hitge et al.

Surrogate models are widely used to approximate complex systems across science and engineering to reduce computational costs. Despite their widespread adoption, the field lacks standardisation across key stages of the modelling pipeline, including data sampling, model selection, evaluation, and downstream analysis. This fragmentation limits reproducibility and cross-domain utility -- a challenge further exacerbated by the rapid proliferation of AI-driven surrogate models. We argue for the urgent need to establish a structured reporting standard, the Surrogate Model Reporting Standard (SMRS), that systematically captures essential design and evaluation choices while remaining agnostic to implementation specifics. By promoting a standardised yet flexible framework, we aim to improve the reliability of surrogate modelling, foster interdisciplinary knowledge transfer, and, as a result, accelerate scientific progress in the AI era.

Alisa Sheinkman, Sara Wade

Despite the dominant role of deep models in machine learning, limitations persist, including overconfident predictions, susceptibility to adversarial attacks, and underestimation of variability in predictions. The Bayesian paradigm provides a natural framework to overcome such issues and has become the gold standard for uncertainty estimation with deep models, also providing improved accuracy and a framework for tuning critical hyperparameters. However, exact Bayesian inference is challenging, typically involving variational algorithms that impose strong independence and distributional assumptions. Moreover, existing methods are sensitive to the architectural choice of the network. We address these issues by focusing on a stochastic relaxation of the standard feed-forward rectified neural network and using sparsity-promoting priors on the weights of the neural network for increased robustness to architectural design. Thanks to Polya-Gamma data augmentation tricks, which render a conditionally linear and Gaussian model, we derive a fast, approximate variational inference algorithm that avoids distributional assumptions and independence across layers. Suitable strategies to further improve scalability and account for multimodality are considered.