Sophia Wagner

Florian Kofler, Johannes Wahle, Ivan Ezhov et al.

Machine learning models are typically evaluated by computing similarity with reference annotations and trained by maximizing similarity with such. Especially in the biomedical domain, annotations are subjective and suffer from low inter- and intra-rater reliability. Since annotations only reflect one interpretation of the real world, this can lead to sub-optimal predictions even though the model achieves high similarity scores. Here, the theoretical concept of PGT is introduced. PGT marks the point beyond which an increase in similarity with the \emph{reference annotation} stops translating to better RWMP. Additionally, a quantitative technique to approximate PGT by computing inter- and intra-rater reliability is proposed. Finally, four categories of PGT-aware strategies to evaluate and improve model performance are reviewed.

Andrew Zhang, Tong Ding, Sophia J. Wagner et al.

Modern medicine generates vast multimodal data across siloed systems, yet no existing model integrates the full breadth and temporal depth of the clinical record into a unified patient representation. We introduce Apollo, a multimodal temporal foundation model trained and evaluated on over three decades of longitudinal hospital records from a major US hospital system, composed of 25 billion records from 7.2 million patients, representing 28 distinct medical modalities and 12 major medical specialties. Apollo learns a unified representation space integrating over 100 thousand unique medical events in our clinical vocabulary as well as images and clinical text. This "atlas of medical concepts" forms a computational substrate for modeling entire patient care journeys comprised of sequences of structured and unstructured events, which are compressed by Apollo into virtual patient representations. To assess the potential of these whole-patient representations, we created 322 prognosis and retrieval tasks from a held-out test set of 1.4 million patients. We demonstrate the generalized clinical forecasting potential of Apollo embeddings, including predicting new disease onset risk up to five years in advance (95 tasks), disease progression (78 tasks), treatment response (59 tasks), risk of treatment-related adverse events (17 tasks), and hospital operations endpoints (12 tasks). Using feature attribution techniques, we show that model predictions align with clinically-interpretable multimodal biomarkers. We evaluate semantic similarity search on 61 retrieval tasks, and moreover demonstrate the potential of Apollo as a multimodal medical search engine using text and image queries. Together, these modeling capabilities establish the foundation for computable medicine, where the full context of patient care becomes accessible to computational reasoning.