Abdullah Mamun

Abdullah Mamun, Asiful Arefeen, Susan B. Racette et al.

Postprandial hyperglycemia, marked by the blood glucose level exceeding the normal range after consuming a meal, is a critical indicator of progression toward type 2 diabetes in people with prediabetes and in healthy individuals. A key metric for understanding blood glucose dynamics after eating is the postprandial area under the curve (AUC). Predicting postprandial AUC in advance based on a person's lifestyle factors, such as diet and physical activity level, and explaining the factors that affect postprandial blood glucose could allow an individual to adjust their lifestyle accordingly to maintain normal glucose levels. In this study, we developed an explainable machine learning solution, GlucoLens, that takes sensor-driven inputs and uses advanced data processing, large language models, and trainable machine learning models to predict postprandial AUC and hyperglycemia from diet, physical activity, and recent glucose patterns. We used data obtained from wearables in a five-week clinical trial of 10 adults who worked full-time to develop and evaluate the proposed computational model that integrates wearable sensing, multimodal data, and machine learning. Our machine learning model takes multimodal data from wearable activity and glucose monitoring sensors, along with food and work logs, and provides an interpretable prediction of the postprandial glucose pattern. Our GlucoLens system achieves a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 0.123 in its best configuration. On average, the proposed technology provides a 16% better performance level compared to the comparison models. Additionally, our technique predicts hyperglycemia with an accuracy of 73.3% and an F1 score of 0.716 and recommends different treatment options to help avoid hyperglycemia through diverse counterfactual explanations. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/GlucoLens.

Abdullah Mamun, Diane J. Cook, Hassan Ghasemzadeh

Adherence to prescribed treatments is crucial for individuals with chronic conditions to avoid costly or adverse health outcomes. For certain patient groups, intensive lifestyle interventions are vital for enhancing medication adherence. Accurate forecasting of treatment adherence can open pathways to developing an on-demand intervention tool, enabling timely and personalized support. With the increasing popularity of smartphones and wearables, it is now easier than ever to develop and deploy smart activity monitoring systems. However, effective forecasting systems for treatment adherence based on wearable sensors are still not widely available. We close this gap by proposing Adherence Forecasting and Intervention with Machine Intelligence (AIMI). AIMI is a knowledge-guided adherence forecasting system that leverages smartphone sensors and previous medication history to estimate the likelihood of forgetting to take a prescribed medication. A user study was conducted with 27 participants who took daily medications to manage their cardiovascular diseases. We designed and developed CNN and LSTM-based forecasting models with various combinations of input features and found that LSTM models can forecast medication adherence with an accuracy of 0.932 and an F-1 score of 0.936. Moreover, through a series of ablation studies involving convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures, we demonstrate that leveraging known knowledge about future and personalized training enhances the accuracy of medication adherence forecasting. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/AIMI.

Sanyam Paresh Shah, Abdullah Mamun, Shovito Barua Soumma et al.

Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of interrelated risk factors that significantly increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes. Despite its global prevalence, accurate prediction of MetS remains challenging due to issues such as class imbalance, data scarcity, and methodological inconsistencies in existing studies. In this paper, we address these challenges by systematically evaluating and optimizing machine learning (ML) models for MetS prediction, leveraging advanced data balancing techniques and counterfactual analysis. Multiple ML models, including XGBoost, Random Forest, TabNet, etc., were trained and compared under various data balancing techniques such as random oversampling (ROS), SMOTE, ADASYN, and CTGAN. Additionally, we introduce MetaBoost, a novel hybrid framework that integrates SMOTE, ADASYN, and CTGAN, optimizing synthetic data generation through weighted averaging and iterative weight tuning to enhance the model's performance (achieving up to a 1.87% accuracy improvement over individual balancing techniques). A comprehensive counterfactual analysis is conducted to quantify the feature-level changes required to shift individuals from high-risk to low-risk categories. The results indicate that blood glucose (50.3%) and triglycerides (46.7%) were the most frequently modified features, highlighting their clinical significance in MetS risk reduction. Additionally, probabilistic analysis shows elevated blood glucose (85.5% likelihood) and triglycerides (74.9% posterior probability) as the strongest predictors. This study not only advances the methodological rigor of MetS prediction but also provides actionable insights for clinicians and researchers, highlighting the potential of ML in mitigating the public health burden of metabolic syndrome.