Jason A. Oliver

Ya-Yun Huang, Joseph McClernon, Jason A. Oliver et al.

Daily environments have profound influence on our health and behavior. Recent work has shown that digital envirotyping, where computer vision is applied to images of daily environments taken during ecological momentary assessment (EMA), can be used to identify meaningful relationships between environmental features and health outcomes of interest. To systematically study such effects on an individual level, it is helpful to group images into distinct environments encountered in an individual's daily life; these may then be analyzed, further grouped into related environments with similar features, and linked to health outcomes. Here we introduce infinite hierarchical contrastive clustering to address this challenge. Building on the established contrastive clustering framework, our method a) allows an arbitrary number of clusters without requiring the full Dirichlet Process machinery by placing a stick-breaking prior on predicted cluster probabilities; and b) encourages distinct environments to form well-defined sub-clusters within each cluster of related environments by incorporating a participant-specific prediction loss. Our experiments show that our model effectively identifies distinct personal environments and groups these environments into meaningful environment types. We then illustrate how the resulting clusters can be linked to various health outcomes, highlighting the potential of our approach to advance the envirotyping paradigm.

Matthew Engelhard, Hongteng Xu, Lawrence Carin et al.

Health risks from cigarette smoking -- the leading cause of preventable death in the United States -- can be substantially reduced by quitting. Although most smokers are motivated to quit, the majority of quit attempts fail. A number of studies have explored the role of self-reported symptoms, physiologic measurements, and environmental context on smoking risk, but less work has focused on the temporal dynamics of smoking events, including daily patterns and related nicotine effects. In this work, we examine these dynamics and improve risk prediction by modeling smoking as a self-triggering process, in which previous smoking events modify current risk. Specifically, we fit smoking events self-reported by 42 smokers to a time-varying semi-parametric Hawkes process (TV-SPHP) developed for this purpose. Results show that the TV-SPHP achieves superior prediction performance compared to related and existing models, with the incorporation of time-varying predictors having greatest benefit over longer prediction windows. Moreover, the impact function illustrates previously unknown temporal dynamics of smoking, with possible connections to nicotine metabolism to be explored in future work through a randomized study design. By more effectively predicting smoking events and exploring a self-triggering component of smoking risk, this work supports development of novel or improved cessation interventions that aim to reduce death from smoking.