Jeremy J. Yang

Jeremy Yang, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon et al.

Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long-term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we build on the statistical surrogacy and policy learning literatures to impute the missing long-term outcomes and then approximate the optimal targeting policy on the imputed outcomes via a doubly-robust approach. We first show that conditions for the validity of average treatment effect estimation with imputed outcomes are also sufficient for valid policy evaluation and optimization; furthermore, these conditions can be somewhat relaxed for policy optimization. We apply our approach in two large-scale proactive churn management experiments at The Boston Globe by targeting optimal discounts to its digital subscribers with the aim of maximizing long-term revenue. Using the first experiment, we evaluate this approach empirically by comparing the policy learned using imputed outcomes with a policy learned on the ground-truth, long-term outcomes. The performance of these two policies is statistically indistinguishable, and we rule out large losses from relying on surrogates. Our approach also outperforms a policy learned on short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. In a second field experiment, we implement the optimal targeting policy with additional randomized exploration, which allows us to update the optimal policy for future subscribers. Over three years, our approach had a net-positive revenue impact in the range of $4-5 million compared to the status quo.

Zheng Gao, Gang Fu, Chunping Ouyang et al.

Representation learning provides new and powerful graph analytical approaches and tools for the highly valued data science challenge of mining knowledge graphs. Since previous graph analytical methods have mostly focused on homogeneous graphs, an important current challenge is extending this methodology for richly heterogeneous graphs and knowledge domains. The biomedical sciences are such a domain, reflecting the complexity of biology, with entities such as genes, proteins, drugs, diseases, and phenotypes, and relationships such as gene co-expression, biochemical regulation, and biomolecular inhibition or activation. Therefore, the semantics of edges and nodes are critical for representation learning and knowledge discovery in real world biomedical problems. In this paper, we propose the edge2vec model, which represents graphs considering edge semantics. An edge-type transition matrix is trained by an Expectation-Maximization approach, and a stochastic gradient descent model is employed to learn node embedding on a heterogeneous graph via the trained transition matrix. edge2vec is validated on three biomedical domain tasks: biomedical entity classification, compound-gene bioactivity prediction, and biomedical information retrieval. Results show that by considering edge-types into node embedding learning in heterogeneous graphs, \textbf{edge2vec}\ significantly outperforms state-of-the-art models on all three tasks. We propose this method for its added value relative to existing graph analytical methodology, and in the real world context of biomedical knowledge discovery applicability.