Totte Harinen

Zhenyu Zhao, Yumin Zhang, Totte Harinen et al.

Uplift modeling is a causal learning technique that estimates subgroup-level treatment effects. It is commonly used in industry and elsewhere for tasks such as targeting ads. In a typical setting, uplift models can take thousands of features as inputs, which is costly and results in problems such as overfitting and poor model interpretability. Consequently, there is a need to select a subset of the most important features for modeling. However, traditional methods for doing feature selection are not fit for the task because they are designed for standard machine learning models whose target is importantly different from uplift models. To address this, we introduce a set of feature selection methods explicitly designed for uplift modeling, drawing inspiration from statistics and information theory. We conduct empirical evaluations on the proposed methods on publicly available datasets, demonstrating the advantages of the proposed methods compared to traditional feature selection. We make the proposed methods publicly available as a part of the CausalML open-source package.

Yanxia Zhang, Francine Chen, Shabnam Hakimi et al.

Understanding consumer preferences is essential to product design and predicting market response to these new products. Choice-based conjoint analysis is widely used to model user preferences using their choices in surveys. However, traditional conjoint estimation techniques assume simple linear models. This assumption may lead to limited predictability and inaccurate estimation of product attribute contributions, especially on data that has underlying non-linear relationships. In this work, we employ representation learning to efficiently alleviate this issue. We propose ConjointNet, which is composed of two novel neural architectures, to predict user preferences. We demonstrate that the proposed ConjointNet models outperform traditional conjoint estimate techniques on two preference datasets by over 5%, and offer insights into non-linear feature interactions.

Totte Harinen, Alexandre Filipowicz, Shabnam Hakimi et al.

Different advertising messages work for different people. Machine learning can be an effective way to personalise climate communications. In this paper we use machine learning to reanalyse findings from a recent study, showing that online advertisements increased some people's belief in climate change while resulting in decreased belief in others. In particular, we show that the effect of the advertisements could change depending on people's age and ethnicity.

Huigang Chen, Totte Harinen, Jeong-Yoon Lee et al.

CausalML is a Python implementation of algorithms related to causal inference and machine learning. Algorithms combining causal inference and machine learning have been a trending topic in recent years. This package tries to bridge the gap between theoretical work on methodology and practical applications by making a collection of methods in this field available in Python. This paper introduces the key concepts, scope, and use cases of this package.

Zhenyu Zhao, Totte Harinen

Uplift modeling is an emerging machine learning approach for estimating the treatment effect at an individual or subgroup level. It can be used for optimizing the performance of interventions such as marketing campaigns and product designs. Uplift modeling can be used to estimate which users are likely to benefit from a treatment and then prioritize delivering or promoting the preferred experience to those users. An important but so far neglected use case for uplift modeling is an experiment with multiple treatment groups that have different costs, such as for example when different communication channels and promotion types are tested simultaneously. In this paper, we extend standard uplift models to support multiple treatment groups with different costs. We evaluate the performance of the proposed models using both synthetic and real data. We also describe a production implementation of the approach.