Soumya Ghosh

Jiri Navratil, Benjamin Elder, Matthew Arnold et al.

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to an ad-hoc operating point, making evaluation and comparison across different studies relatively difficult. Our work leverages: (1) the concept of operating characteristics curves and (2) the notion of a gain over a null reference, to derive a novel operating point agnostic assessment methodology for prediction intervals. The paper defines the Uncertainty Characteristics Curve and demonstrates its utility in selected scenarios. We argue that the proposed method addresses the current need for comprehensive assessment of prediction intervals and thus represents a valuable addition to the uncertainty quantification toolbox.

Soumya Ghosh, Q. Vera Liao, Karthikeyan Natesan Ramamurthy et al.

In this paper, we describe an open source Python toolkit named Uncertainty Quantification 360 (UQ360) for the uncertainty quantification of AI models. The goal of this toolkit is twofold: first, to provide a broad range of capabilities to streamline as well as foster the common practices of quantifying, evaluating, improving, and communicating uncertainty in the AI application development lifecycle; second, to encourage further exploration of UQ's connections to other pillars of trustworthy AI such as fairness and transparency through the dissemination of latest research and education materials. Beyond the Python package (\url{https://github.com/IBM/UQ360}), we have developed an interactive experience (\url{http://uq360.mybluemix.net}) and guidance materials as educational tools to aid researchers and developers in producing and communicating high-quality uncertainties in an effective manner.

Maohao Shen, Subhro Das, Kristjan Greenewald et al.

We consider the issue of calibration in large language models (LLM). Recent studies have found that common interventions such as instruction tuning often result in poorly calibrated LLMs. Although calibration is well-explored in traditional applications, calibrating LLMs is uniquely challenging. These challenges stem as much from the severe computational requirements of LLMs as from their versatility, which allows them to be applied to diverse tasks. Addressing these challenges, we propose THERMOMETER, a calibration approach tailored to LLMs. THERMOMETER learns an auxiliary model, given data from multiple tasks, for calibrating a LLM. It is computationally efficient, preserves the accuracy of the LLM, and produces better-calibrated responses for new tasks. Extensive empirical evaluations across various benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Swapnaja Achintalwar, Adriana Alvarado Garcia, Ateret Anaby-Tavor et al. · ibm-research

Large language models (LLMs) are susceptible to a variety of risks, from non-faithful output to biased and toxic generations. Due to several limiting factors surrounding LLMs (training cost, API access, data availability, etc.), it may not always be feasible to impose direct safety constraints on a deployed model. Therefore, an efficient and reliable alternative is required. To this end, we present our ongoing efforts to create and deploy a library of detectors: compact and easy-to-build classification models that provide labels for various harms. In addition to the detectors themselves, we discuss a wide range of uses for these detector models - from acting as guardrails to enabling effective AI governance. We also deep dive into inherent challenges in their development and discuss future work aimed at making the detectors more reliable and broadening their scope.

Dennis Wei, Inkit Padhi, Soumya Ghosh et al.

Training data attribution (TDA) is the task of attributing model behavior to elements in the training data. This paper draws attention to the common setting where one has access only to the final trained model, and not the training algorithm or intermediate information from training. To serve as a gold standard for TDA in this "final-model-only" setting, we propose further training, with appropriate adjustment and averaging, to measure the sensitivity of the given model to training instances. We then unify existing gradient-based methods for TDA by showing that they all approximate the further training gold standard in different ways. We investigate empirically the quality of these gradient-based approximations to further training, for tabular, image, and text datasets and models. We find that the approximation quality of first-order methods is sometimes high but decays with the amount of further training. In contrast, the approximations given by influence function methods are more stable but surprisingly lower in quality.

Suman Samui, Indrajit Chakrabarti, Soumya K. Ghosh

Bayesian estimation of short-time spectral amplitude is one of the most predominant approaches for the enhancement of the noise corrupted speech. The performance of these estimators are usually significantly improved when any perceptually relevant cost function is considered. On the other hand, the recent progress in the phase-based speech signal processing have shown that the phase-only enhancement based on spectral phase estimation methods can also provide joint improvement in the perceived speech quality and intelligibility, even in low SNR conditions. In this paper, to take advantage of both the perceptually motivated cost function involving STSAs of estimated and true clean speech and utilizing the prior spectral phase information, we have derived a phase-aware Bayesian STSA estimator. The parameters of the cost function are chosen based on the characteristics of the human auditory system, namely, the dynamic compressive nonlinearity of the cochlea, the perceived loudness theory and the simultaneous masking properties of the ear. This type of parameter selection scheme results in more noise reduction while limiting the speech distortion. The derived STSA estimator is optimal in the MMSE sense if the prior phase information is available. In practice, however, typically only an estimate of the clean speech phase can be obtained via employing different types of spectral phase estimation techniques which have been developed throughout the last few years. In a blind setup, we have evaluated the proposed Bayesian STSA estimator with different types of standard phase estimation methods available in the literature. Experimental results have shown that the proposed estimator can achieve substantial improvement in performance than the traditional phase-blind approaches.

Meet P. Vadera, Soumya Ghosh, Kenney Ng et al.

Bayesian decision theory provides an elegant framework for acting optimally under uncertainty when tractable posterior distributions are available. Modern Bayesian models, however, typically involve intractable posteriors that are approximated with, potentially crude, surrogates. This difficulty has engendered loss-calibrated techniques that aim to learn posterior approximations that favor high-utility decisions. In this paper, focusing on Bayesian neural networks, we develop methods for correcting approximate posterior predictive distributions encouraging them to prefer high-utility decisions. In contrast to previous work, our approach is agnostic to the choice of the approximate inference algorithm, allows for efficient test time decision making through amortization, and empirically produces higher quality decisions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through controlled experiments spanning a diversity of tasks and datasets.

Jiri Navratil, Benjamin Elder, Matthew Arnold et al.

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point, making evaluation and comparison across different studies difficult. Our work leverages: (1) the concept of operating characteristics curves and (2) the notion of a gain over a simple reference, to derive a novel operating point agnostic assessment methodology for prediction intervals. The paper describes the corresponding algorithm, provides a theoretical analysis, and demonstrates its utility in multiple scenarios. We argue that the proposed method addresses the current need for comprehensive assessment of prediction intervals and thus represents a valuable addition to the uncertainty quantification toolbox.

Siddharth Biswal, Soumya Ghosh, Jon Duke et al.

Researchers require timely access to real-world longitudinal electronic health records (EHR) to develop, test, validate, and implement machine learning solutions that improve the quality and efficiency of healthcare. In contrast, health systems value deeply patient privacy and data security. De-identified EHRs do not adequately address the needs of health systems, as de-identified data are susceptible to re-identification and its volume is also limited. Synthetic EHRs offer a potential solution. In this paper, we propose EHR Variational Autoencoder (EVA) for synthesizing sequences of discrete EHR encounters (e.g., clinical visits) and encounter features (e.g., diagnoses, medications, procedures). We illustrate that EVA can produce realistic EHR sequences, account for individual differences among patients, and can be conditioned on specific disease conditions, thus enabling disease-specific studies. We design efficient, accurate inference algorithms by combining stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo with amortized variational inference. We assess the utility of the methods on large real-world EHR repositories containing over 250, 000 patients. Our experiments, which include user studies with knowledgeable clinicians, indicate the generated EHR sequences are realistic. We confirmed the performance of predictive models trained on the synthetic data are similar with those trained on real EHRs. Additionally, our findings indicate that augmenting real data with synthetic EHRs results in the best predictive performance - improving the best baseline by as much as 8% in top-20 recall.

Sebastian Claici, Mikhail Yurochkin, Soumya Ghosh et al.

We propose a method to fuse posterior distributions learned from heterogeneous datasets. Our algorithm relies on a mean field assumption for both the fused model and the individual dataset posteriors and proceeds using a simple assign-and-average approach. The components of the dataset posteriors are assigned to the proposed global model components by solving a regularized variant of the assignment problem. The global components are then updated based on these assignments by their mean under a KL divergence. For exponential family variational distributions, our formulation leads to an efficient non-parametric algorithm for computing the fused model. Our algorithm is easy to describe and implement, efficient, and competitive with state-of-the-art on motion capture analysis, topic modeling, and federated learning of Bayesian neural networks.

Soumya Ghosh, William T. Stephenson, Tin D. Nguyen et al.

Many modern data analyses benefit from explicitly modeling dependence structure in data -- such as measurements across time or space, ordered words in a sentence, or genes in a genome. A gold standard evaluation technique is structured cross-validation (CV), which leaves out some data subset (such as data within a time interval or data in a geographic region) in each fold. But CV here can be prohibitively slow due to the need to re-run already-expensive learning algorithms many times. Previous work has shown approximate cross-validation (ACV) methods provide a fast and provably accurate alternative in the setting of empirical risk minimization. But this existing ACV work is restricted to simpler models by the assumptions that (i) data across CV folds are independent and (ii) an exact initial model fit is available. In structured data analyses, both these assumptions are often untrue. In the present work, we address (i) by extending ACV to CV schemes with dependence structure between the folds. To address (ii), we verify -- both theoretically and empirically -- that ACV quality deteriorates smoothly with noise in the initial fit. We demonstrate the accuracy and computational benefits of our proposed methods on a diverse set of real-world applications.

Mikhail Yurochkin, Mayank Agarwal, Soumya Ghosh et al.

We consider the problem of aggregating models learned from sequestered, possibly heterogeneous datasets. Exploiting tools from Bayesian nonparametrics, we develop a general meta-modeling framework that learns shared global latent structures by identifying correspondences among local model parameterizations. Our proposed framework is model-independent and is applicable to a wide range of model types. After verifying our approach on simulated data, we demonstrate its utility in aggregating Gaussian topic models, hierarchical Dirichlet process based hidden Markov models, and sparse Gaussian processes with applications spanning text summarization, motion capture analysis, and temperature forecasting.

Jiayu Yao, Weiwei Pan, Soumya Ghosh et al.

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive uncertainty estimates for 10 common inference methods on both regression and classification tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that commonly used metrics (e.g. test log-likelihood) can be misleading. Our experiments also indicate that inference innovations designed to capture structure in the posterior do not necessarily produce high quality posterior approximations.

Mikhail Yurochkin, Mayank Agarwal, Soumya Ghosh et al.

In federated learning problems, data is scattered across different servers and exchanging or pooling it is often impractical or prohibited. We develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework for federated learning with neural networks. Each data server is assumed to provide local neural network weights, which are modeled through our framework. We then develop an inference approach that allows us to synthesize a more expressive global network without additional supervision, data pooling and with as few as a single communication round. We then demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on federated learning problems simulated from two popular image classification datasets.

Bum Chul Kwon, Vibha Anand, Kristen A Severson et al.

Clinical researchers use disease progression models to understand patient status and characterize progression patterns from longitudinal health records. One approach for disease progression modeling is to describe patient status using a small number of states that represent distinctive distributions over a set of observed measures. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and its variants are a class of models that both discover these states and make inferences of health states for patients. Despite the advantages of using the algorithms for discovering interesting patterns, it still remains challenging for medical experts to interpret model outputs, understand complex modeling parameters, and clinically make sense of the patterns. To tackle these problems, we conducted a design study with clinical scientists, statisticians, and visualization experts, with the goal to investigate disease progression pathways of chronic diseases, namely type 1 diabetes (T1D), Huntington's disease, Parkinson's disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). As a result, we introduce DPVis which seamlessly integrates model parameters and outcomes of HMMs into interpretable and interactive visualizations. In this study, we demonstrate that DPVis is successful in evaluating disease progression models, visually summarizing disease states, interactively exploring disease progression patterns, and building, analyzing, and comparing clinically relevant patient subgroups.

Kristen Severson, Soumya Ghosh, Kenney Ng

In unsupervised learning, dimensionality reduction is an important tool for data exploration and visualization. Because these aims are typically open-ended, it can be useful to frame the problem as looking for patterns that are enriched in one dataset relative to another. These pairs of datasets occur commonly, for instance a population of interest vs. control or signal vs. signal free recordings.However, there are few methods that work on sets of data as opposed to data points or sequences. Here, we present a probabilistic model for dimensionality reduction to discover signal that is enriched in the target dataset relative to the background dataset. The data in these sets do not need to be paired or grouped beyond set membership. By using a probabilistic model where some structure is shared amongst the two datasets and some is unique to the target dataset, we are able to recover interesting structure in the latent space of the target dataset. The method also has the advantages of a probabilistic model, namely that it allows for the incorporation of prior information, handles missing data, and can be generalized to different distributional assumptions. We describe several possible variations of the model and demonstrate the application of the technique to de-noising, feature selection, and subgroup discovery settings.

Soumya Ghosh, Jiayu Yao, Finale Doshi-Velez

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have recently received increasing attention for their ability to provide well-calibrated posterior uncertainties. However, model selection---even choosing the number of nodes---remains an open question. Recent work has proposed the use of a horseshoe prior over node pre-activations of a Bayesian neural network, which effectively turns off nodes that do not help explain the data. In this work, we propose several modeling and inference advances that consistently improve the compactness of the model learned while maintaining predictive performance, especially in smaller-sample settings including reinforcement learning.

Bin Liu, Ying Li, Soumya Ghosh et al.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a chronic disease that often results in multiple complications. Risk prediction and profiling of T2DM complications is critical for healthcare professionals to design personalized treatment plans for patients in diabetes care for improved outcomes. In this paper, we study the risk of developing complications after the initial T2DM diagnosis from longitudinal patient records. We propose a novel multi-task learning approach to simultaneously model multiple complications where each task corresponds to the risk modeling of one complication. Specifically, the proposed method strategically captures the relationships (1) between the risks of multiple T2DM complications, (2) between the different risk factors, and (3) between the risk factor selection patterns. The method uses coefficient shrinkage to identify an informative subset of risk factors from high-dimensional data, and uses a hierarchical Bayesian framework to allow domain knowledge to be incorporated as priors. The proposed method is favorable for healthcare applications because in additional to improved prediction performance, relationships among the different risks and risk factors are also identified. Extensive experimental results on a large electronic medical claims database show that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art models by a significant margin. Furthermore, we show that the risk associations learned and the risk factors identified lead to meaningful clinical insights.

Saptarshi Pal, Soumya K Ghosh

From our experiences in the past, we have seen that the growth of cities is very much dependent on the transportation networks. In mega cities, transportation networks determine to a significant extent as to where the people will move and houses will be built. Hence, transportation network data is crucial to an urban growth prediction system. Existing works have used manually derived distance based features based on the road networks to build models on urban growth. But due to the non-generic and laborious nature of the manual feature engineering process, we can shift to End-to-End systems which do not rely on manual feature engineering. In this paper, we propose a method to integrate road network data to an existing Rule based End-to-End framework without manual feature engineering. Our method employs recurrent neural networks to represent road networks in a structured way such that it can be plugged into the previously proposed End-to-End framework. The proposed approach enhances the performance in terms of Figure of Merit, Producer's accuracy, User's accuracy and Overall accuracy of the existing Rule based End-to-End framework.

Soumya Ghosh, Finale Doshi-Velez

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have recently received increasing attention for their ability to provide well-calibrated posterior uncertainties. However, model selection---even choosing the number of nodes---remains an open question. In this work, we apply a horseshoe prior over node pre-activations of a Bayesian neural network, which effectively turns off nodes that do not help explain the data. We demonstrate that our prior prevents the BNN from under-fitting even when the number of nodes required is grossly over-estimated. Moreover, this model selection over the number of nodes doesn't come at the expense of predictive or computational performance; in fact, we learn smaller networks with comparable predictive performance to current approaches.