Daniel T. Zhang

Vinod Raman, Daniel T. Zhang, Young Hun Jung et al.

We present online boosting algorithms for multilabel ranking with top-k feedback, where the learner only receives information about the top k items from the ranking it provides. We propose a novel surrogate loss function and unbiased estimator, allowing weak learners to update themselves with limited information. Using these techniques we adapt full information multilabel ranking algorithms (Jung and Tewari, 2018) to the top-k feedback setting and provide theoretical performance bounds which closely match the bounds of their full information counterparts, with the cost of increased sample complexity. These theoretical results are further substantiated by our experiments, which show a small gap in performance between the algorithms for the top-k feedback setting and that for the full information setting across various datasets.

Daniel T. Zhang, Young Hun Jung, Ambuj Tewari

We present online boosting algorithms for multiclass classification with bandit feedback, where the learner only receives feedback about the correctness of its prediction. We propose an unbiased estimate of the loss using a randomized prediction, allowing the model to update its weak learners with limited information. Using the unbiased estimate, we extend two full information boosting algorithms (Jung et al., 2017) to the bandit setting. We prove that the asymptotic error bounds of the bandit algorithms exactly match their full information counterparts. The cost of restricted feedback is reflected in the larger sample complexity. Experimental results also support our theoretical findings, and performance of the proposed models is comparable to that of an existing bandit boosting algorithm, which is limited to use binary weak learners.

Alex Chojnacki, Chengyu Dai, Arya Farahi et al.

When the residents of Flint learned that lead had contaminated their water system, the local government made water-testing kits available to them free of charge. The city government published the results of these tests, creating a valuable dataset that is key to understanding the causes and extent of the lead contamination event in Flint. This is the nation's largest dataset on lead in a municipal water system. In this paper, we predict the lead contamination for each household's water supply, and we study several related aspects of Flint's water troubles, many of which generalize well beyond this one city. For example, we show that elevated lead risks can be (weakly) predicted from observable home attributes. Then we explore the factors associated with elevated lead. These risk assessments were developed in part via a crowd sourced prediction challenge at the University of Michigan. To inform Flint residents of these assessments, they have been incorporated into a web and mobile application funded by \texttt{Google.org}. We also explore questions of self-selection in the residential testing program, examining which factors are linked to when and how frequently residents voluntarily sample their water.

Jacob Abernethy, Cyrus Anderson, Alex Chojnacki et al.

Performing arts organizations aim to enrich their communities through the arts. To do this, they strive to match their performance offerings to the taste of those communities. Success relies on understanding audience preference and predicting their behavior. Similar to most e-commerce or digital entertainment firms, arts presenters need to recommend the right performance to the right customer at the right time. As part of the Michigan Data Science Team (MDST), we partnered with the University Musical Society (UMS), a non-profit performing arts presenter housed in the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. We are providing UMS with analysis and business intelligence, utilizing historical individual-level sales data. We built a recommendation system based on collaborative filtering, gaining insights into the artistic preferences of customers, along with the similarities between performances. To better understand audience behavior, we used statistical methods from customer-base analysis. We characterized customer heterogeneity via segmentation, and we modeled customer cohorts to understand and predict ticket purchasing patterns. Finally, we combined statistical modeling with natural language processing (NLP) to explore the impact of wording in program descriptions. These ongoing efforts provide a platform to launch targeted marketing campaigns, helping UMS carry out its mission by allocating its resources more efficiently. Celebrating its 138th season, UMS is a 2014 recipient of the National Medal of Arts, and it continues to enrich communities by connecting world-renowned artists with diverse audiences, especially students in their formative years. We aim to contribute to that mission through data science and customer analytics.