Denitsa Saynova

Lovisa Hagström, Denitsa Saynova, Tobias Norlund et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) make natural interfaces to factual knowledge, but their usefulness is limited by their tendency to deliver inconsistent answers to semantically equivalent questions. For example, a model might predict both "Anne Redpath passed away in Edinburgh." and "Anne Redpath's life ended in London." In this work, we identify potential causes of inconsistency and evaluate the effectiveness of two mitigation strategies: up-scaling and augmenting the LM with a retrieval corpus. Our results on the LLaMA and Atlas models show that both strategies reduce inconsistency while retrieval augmentation is considerably more efficient. We further consider and disentangle the consistency contributions of different components of Atlas. For all LMs evaluated we find that syntactical form and other evaluation task artifacts impact consistency. Taken together, our results provide a better understanding of the factors affecting the factual consistency of language models.

Denitsa Saynova, Kajsa Hansson, Bastiaan Bruinsma et al.

In this study, we investigate whether LLMs can be used to indicate if a study in the behavioural social sciences is replicable. Using a dataset of 14 previously replicated studies (9 successful, 5 unsuccessful), we evaluate the ability of both open-source (Llama 3 8B, Qwen 2 7B, Mistral 7B) and proprietary (GPT-4o) instruction-tuned LLMs to discriminate between replicable and non-replicable findings. We use LLMs to generate synthetic samples of responses from behavioural studies and estimate whether the measured effects support the original findings. When compared with human replication results for these studies, we achieve F1 values of up to $77\%$ with Mistral 7B, $67\%$ with GPT-4o and Llama 3 8B, and $55\%$ with Qwen 2 7B, suggesting their potential for this task. We also analyse how effect size calculations are affected by sampling temperature and find that low variance (due to temperature) leads to biased effect estimates.

Bastiaan Bruinsma, Annika Fredén, Kajsa Hansson et al.

This paper examines the development of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) meta-debate in Sweden before and after the release of ChatGPT. From the perspective of agenda-setting theory, we propose that it is an elite outside of party politics that is leading the debate -- i.e. that the politicians are relatively silent when it comes to this rapid development. We also suggest that the debate has become more substantive and risk-oriented in recent years. To investigate this claim, we draw on an original dataset of elite-level documents from the early 2010s to the present, using op-eds published in a number of leading Swedish newspapers. By conducting a qualitative content analysis of these materials, our preliminary findings lend support to the expectation that an academic, rather than a political elite is steering the debate.

Denitsa Saynova, Lovisa Hagström, Moa Johansson et al.

Language models (LMs) can make a correct prediction based on many possible signals in a prompt, not all corresponding to recall of factual associations. However, current interpretations of LMs fail to take this into account. For example, given the query "Astrid Lindgren was born in" with the corresponding completion "Sweden", no difference is made between whether the prediction was based on knowing where the author was born or assuming that a person with a Swedish-sounding name was born in Sweden. In this paper, we present a model-specific recipe - PrISM - for constructing datasets with examples of four different prediction scenarios: generic language modeling, guesswork, heuristics recall and exact fact recall. We apply two popular interpretability methods to the scenarios: causal tracing (CT) and information flow analysis. We find that both yield distinct results for each scenario. Results for exact fact recall and generic language modeling scenarios confirm previous conclusions about the importance of mid-range MLP sublayers for fact recall, while results for guesswork and heuristics indicate a critical role of late last token position MLP sublayers. In summary, we contribute resources for a more extensive and granular study of fact completion in LMs, together with analyses that provide a more nuanced understanding of how LMs process fact-related queries.