James M. McQueen

Alberto Abadie, Anish Agarwal, Guido Imbens et al.

In an era of data abundance, statistical evidence is increasingly critical for business and policy decisions. Yet, organizations lack empirical tools to assess the value of evidence-based decision making (EBDM), optimize statistical precision, and balance the costs of evidence-gathering strategies against their benefits. To tackle these challenges, this article introduces an empirical framework to estimate the value of EBDM and evaluate the return on investment in statistical precision and project ideation. The framework leverages parametric and nonparametric empirical Bayes methods to account for parameter heterogeneity and measure how statistical precision changes the value of evidence. The value extracted from statistical evidence depends critically on how organizations translate evidence into policy decisions. Commonly used decision rules based on statistical significance can leave substantial value unrealized and, in some cases, generate negative expected value.

Runzhe Wan, Yu Liu, James McQueen et al.

With the growing needs of online A/B testing to support the innovation in industry, the opportunity cost of running an experiment becomes non-negligible. Therefore, there is an increasing demand for an efficient continuous monitoring service that allows early stopping when appropriate. Classic statistical methods focus on hypothesis testing and are mostly developed for traditional high-stake problems such as clinical trials, while experiments at online service companies typically have very different features and focuses. Motivated by the real needs, in this paper, we introduce a novel framework that we developed in Amazon to maximize customer experience and control opportunity cost. We formulate the problem as a Bayesian optimal sequential decision making problem that has a unified utility function. We discuss extensively practical design choices and considerations. We further introduce how to solve the optimal decision rule via Reinforcement Learning and scale the solution. We show the effectiveness of this novel approach compared with existing methods via a large-scale meta-analysis on experiments in Amazon.

Thomas Richardson, Yu Liu, James McQueen et al.

In many contexts it is useful to predict the number of individuals in some population who will initiate a particular activity during a given period. For example, the number of users who will install a software update, the number of customers who will use a new feature on a website or who will participate in an A/B test. In practical settings, there is heterogeneity amongst individuals with regard to the distribution of time until they will initiate. For these reasons it is inappropriate to assume that the number of new individuals observed on successive days will be identically distributed. Given observations on the number of unique users participating in an initial period, we present a simple but novel Bayesian method for predicting the number of additional individuals who will participate during a subsequent period. We illustrate the performance of the method in predicting sample size in online experimentation.

James McQueen, Marina Meila, Jacob VanderPlas et al.

Manifold Learning is a class of algorithms seeking a low-dimensional non-linear representation of high-dimensional data. Thus manifold learning algorithms are, at least in theory, most applicable to high-dimensional data and sample sizes to enable accurate estimation of the manifold. Despite this, most existing manifold learning implementations are not particularly scalable. Here we present a Python package that implements a variety of manifold learning algorithms in a modular and scalable fashion, using fast approximate neighbors searches and fast sparse eigendecompositions. The package incorporates theoretical advances in manifold learning, such as the unbiased Laplacian estimator and the estimation of the embedding distortion by the Riemannian metric method. In benchmarks, even on a single-core desktop computer, our code embeds millions of data points in minutes, and takes just 200 minutes to embed the main sample of galaxy spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey --- consisting of 0.6 million samples in 3750-dimensions --- a task which has not previously been possible.