Amir Saki

Usef Faghihi, Amir Saki

In this paper, we introduce a new causal methodology that accounts for the rarity and frequency of events in observational studies based on their relevance to the underlying problem. Specifically, we propose a direct causal effect metric called the Probabilistic vAriational Causal Effect (PACE) and its variations adhering to certain postulates applicable to both non-binary and binary treatments. The PACE metric is derived by integrating the concept of total variation, representing the purely causal component, with interventions on the treatment value, combined with the probabilities of hypothetical transitioning between treatment levels. PACE features a parameter $d$, where lower values of $d$ correspond to scenarios emphasizing rare treatment values, while higher values of $d$ focus on situations where the causal impact of more frequent treatment levels is more relevant. Thus, instead of a single causal effect value, we provide a causal effect function of the degree $d$. Additionally, we introduce positive and negative PACE to measure the respective positive and negative causal changes in the outcome as exposure values shift. We also consider normalized versions of PACE, referred to MEAN PACE. Furthermore, we provide an identifiability criterion for PACE to handle counterfactual challenges in observational studies, and we define several generalizations of our methodology. Lastly, we compare our framework with other well-known causal frameworks through the analysis of various examples.

Amir Saki, Usef Faghihi

In this paper, we introduce a fundamental framework to create a bridge between Probability Theory and Fuzzy Logic. Indeed, our theory formulates a random experiment of selecting crisp elements with the criterion of having a certain fuzzy attribute. To do so, we associate some specific crisp random variables to the random experiment. Then, several formulas are presented, which make it easier to compute different conditional probabilities and expected values of these random variables. Also, we provide measure theoretical basis for our probabilistic fuzzy logic framework. Note that in our theory, the probability density functions of continuous distributions which come from the aforementioned random variables include the Dirac delta function as a term. Further, we introduce an application of our theory in Causal Inference.

Amir Saki, Usef Faghihi

Average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) are foundational causal estimands, but they target changes in expected outcomes and can miss treatment-induced changes in the shape of outcome distributions. A canonical failure mode occurs when control outcomes are unimodal, treated outcomes become bimodal, and both distributions have the same mean. In such cases mean-based causal estimands are zero even though the geometry and topology of the outcome law change substantially. This paper develops a topological causal framework based on persistent homology. We formalize a persistent-homology ignorability condition, define topological analogues of CATE and ATE, and prove that these estimands are identifiable up to an explicit error bound under approximate topological ignorability. We also clarify a subtle but important point: a marginal persistence-diagram effect is not identified from conditional topological ignorability alone because persistent homology does not in general commute with mixtures over covariates. To preserve the original intuition while ensuring scientific correctness, we retain the marginal effect as a motivating quantity, but place the mathematically sound conditional estimands at the center of the theory. A synthetic experiment with mean-preserving topology change shows that mean-based causal estimands remain near zero while the proposed topological effect increases sharply and remains recoverable after adjustment for confounding.

Usef Faghihi, Amir Saki

Scientific time series often encode predictive geometric structure, including connectivity, cycles, shell-like geometry, directional changes, and nonlinear neighborhoods, that standard dot-product attention does not explicitly represent. We introduce a topology-aware attention framework that adds such structure to attention logits using persistent homology (H0-H2), anchored Euler characteristic transforms, and kernel-Hilbert channels. A validation-gated local residual captures local topological signals, including a Zeng-style local H0 component, only when held-out validation data support the correction. Exact Vietoris-Rips computations and smooth topological surrogates are evaluated under a no-leakage protocol with train-only calibration, validation-only selection, and test-only reporting. We evaluate guarded topology-aware variants across three architecture families: lightweight attention/Ridge, PatchTSTForRegression, and TimeSeriesTransformerForPrediction. Experiments include synthetic benchmarks isolating higher-order topology and real datasets covering CO2, S&P 500 return-window geometry, and NASA IMS bearing degradation. The audit uses matched paired comparisons across seven dataset units, three random seeds, and three chronological splits, giving 63 paired units per architecture and 189 paired units overall. Topology-aware models show positive paired effects when geometry is predictive, with heterogeneous magnitude across datasets and architectures. Lightweight attention/Ridge improves in 46 of 63 units, with mean relative RMSE reduction of 12.5% and paired randomization p=7.2e-4; PatchTST improves in 33 units and retains the baseline in 20 units, with 23.5% reduction and p=3.5e-5; and TimeSeriesTransformer improves in 47 units, with 47.8% reduction and p<1e-4. The results support topology as a validation-selected, architecture-compatible inductive bias.

Usef Faghihi, Amir Saki

Let $X$ and $Z$ be random vectors, and $Y=g(X,Z)$. In this paper, on the one hand, for the case that $X$ and $Z$ are continuous, by using the ideas from the total variation and the flux of $g$, we develop a point of view in causal inference capable of dealing with a broad domain of causal problems. Indeed, we focus on a function, called Probabilistic Easy Variational Causal Effect (PEACE), which can measure the direct causal effect of $X$ on $Y$ with respect to continuously and interventionally changing the values of $X$ while keeping the value of $Z$ constant. PEACE is a function of $d\ge 0$, which is a degree managing the strengths of probability density values $f(x|z)$. On the other hand, we generalize the above idea for the discrete case and show its compatibility with the continuous case. Further, we investigate some properties of PEACE using measure theoretical concepts. Furthermore, we provide some identifiability criteria and several examples showing the generic capability of PEACE. We note that PEACE can deal with the causal problems for which micro-level or just macro-level changes in the value of the input variables are important. Finally, PEACE is stable under small changes in $\partial g_{in}/\partial x$ and the joint distribution of $X$ and $Z$, where $g_{in}$ is obtained from $g$ by removing all functional relationships defining $X$ and $Z$.

Elouanes Khelifi, Amir Saki, Usef Faghihi

Deep Q Networks (DQN) have shown remarkable success in various reinforcement learning tasks. However, their reliance on associative learning often leads to the acquisition of spurious correlations, hindering their problem-solving capabilities. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to integrate causal principles into DQNs, leveraging the PEACE (Probabilistic Easy vAriational Causal Effect) formula for estimating causal effects. By incorporating causal reasoning during training, our proposed framework enhances the DQN's understanding of the underlying causal structure of the environment, thereby mitigating the influence of confounding factors and spurious correlations. We demonstrate that integrating DQNs with causal capabilities significantly enhances their problem-solving capabilities without compromising performance. Experimental results on standard benchmark environments showcase that our approach outperforms conventional DQNs, highlighting the effectiveness of causal reasoning in reinforcement learning. Overall, our work presents a promising avenue for advancing the capabilities of deep reinforcement learning agents through principled causal inference.

Amir Saki, Usef Faghihi

In this paper, we generalize the Pearl and Neyman-Rubin methodologies in causal inference by introducing a generalized approach that incorporates fuzzy logic. Indeed, we introduce a fuzzy causal inference approach that consider both the vagueness and imprecision inherent in data, as well as the subjective human perspective characterized by fuzzy terms such as 'high', 'medium', and 'low'. To do so, we introduce two fuzzy causal effect formulas: the Fuzzy Average Treatment Effect (FATE) and the Generalized Fuzzy Average Treatment Effect (GFATE), together with their normalized versions: NFATE and NGFATE. When dealing with a binary treatment variable, our fuzzy causal effect formulas coincide with classical Average Treatment Effect (ATE) formula, that is a well-established and popular metric in causal inference. In FATE, all values of the treatment variable are considered equally important. In contrast, GFATE takes into account the rarity and frequency of these values. We show that for linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs), the normalized versions of our formulas, NFATE and NGFATE, are equivalent to ATE. Further, we provide identifiability criteria for these formulas and show their stability with respect to minor variations in the fuzzy subsets and the probability distributions involved. This ensures the robustness of our approach in handling small perturbations in the data. Finally, we provide several experimental examples to empirically validate and demonstrate the practical application of our proposed fuzzy causal inference methods.

Pasquale Cascarano, Patrizio Frosini, Nicola Quercioli et al.

Group equivariant non-expansive operators have been recently proposed as basic components in topological data analysis and deep learning. In this paper we study some geometric properties of the spaces of group equivariant operators and show how a space $\mathcal{F}$ of group equivariant non-expansive operators can be endowed with the structure of a Riemannian manifold, so making available the use of gradient descent methods for the minimization of cost functions on $\mathcal{F}$. As an application of this approach, we also describe a procedure to select a finite set of representative group equivariant non-expansive operators in the considered manifold.