Patrick C. Kyllonen

Yan Zhuang, Qi Liu, Zachary A. Pardos et al.

As AI systems continue to evolve, their rigorous evaluation becomes crucial for their development and deployment. Researchers have constructed various large-scale benchmarks to determine their capabilities, typically against a gold-standard test set and report metrics averaged across all items. However, this static evaluation paradigm increasingly shows its limitations, including high evaluation costs, data contamination, and the impact of low-quality or erroneous items on evaluation reliability and efficiency. In this Position, drawing from human psychometrics, we discuss a paradigm shift from static evaluation methods to adaptive testing. This involves estimating the characteristics or value of each test item in the benchmark, and tailoring each model's evaluation instead of relying on a fixed test set. This paradigm provides robust ability estimation, uncovering the latent traits underlying a model's observed scores. This position paper analyze the current possibilities, prospects, and reasons for adopting psychometrics in AI evaluation. We argue that psychometrics, a theory originating in the 20th century for human assessment, could be a powerful solution to the challenges in today's AI evaluations.

Lexin Zhou, Lorenzo Pacchiardi, Fernando Martínez-Plumed et al. · cambridge

Ensuring safe and effective use of AI requires understanding and anticipating its performance on novel tasks, from advanced scientific challenges to transformed workplace activities. So far, benchmarking has guided progress in AI, but it has offered limited explanatory and predictive power for general-purpose AI systems, given the low transferability across diverse tasks. In this paper, we introduce general scales for AI evaluation that can explain what common AI benchmarks really measure, extract ability profiles of AI systems, and predict their performance for new task instances, in- and out-of-distribution. Our fully-automated methodology builds on 18 newly-crafted rubrics that place instance demands on general scales that do not saturate. Illustrated for 15 large language models and 63 tasks, high explanatory power is unleashed from inspecting the demand and ability profiles, bringing insights on the sensitivity and specificity exhibited by different benchmarks, and how knowledge, metacognition and reasoning are affected by model size, chain-of-thought and distillation. Surprisingly, high predictive power at the instance level becomes possible using these demand levels, providing superior estimates over black-box baseline predictors based on embeddings or finetuning, especially in out-of-distribution settings (new tasks and new benchmarks). The scales, rubrics, battery, techniques and results presented here represent a major step for AI evaluation, underpinning the reliable deployment of AI in the years ahead. (Collaborative platform: https://kinds-of-intelligence-cfi.github.io/ADELE.)