Kate Revoredo

Sven Weinzierl, Sandra Zilker, Jens Brunk et al.

Predictive business process monitoring (PBPM) is a class of techniques designed to predict behaviour, such as next activities, in running traces. PBPM techniques aim to improve process performance by providing predictions to process analysts, supporting them in their decision making. However, the PBPM techniques` limited predictive quality was considered as the essential obstacle for establishing such techniques in practice. With the use of deep neural networks (DNNs), the techniques` predictive quality could be improved for tasks like the next activity prediction. While DNNs achieve a promising predictive quality, they still lack comprehensibility due to their hierarchical approach of learning representations. Nevertheless, process analysts need to comprehend the cause of a prediction to identify intervention mechanisms that might affect the decision making to secure process performance. In this paper, we propose XNAP, the first explainable, DNN-based PBPM technique for the next activity prediction. XNAP integrates a layer-wise relevance propagation method from the field of explainable artificial intelligence to make predictions of a long short-term memory DNN explainable by providing relevance values for activities. We show the benefit of our approach through two real-life event logs.

S. Weinzierl, S. Zilker, J. Brunk et al.

Researchers have proposed a variety of predictive business process monitoring (PBPM) techniques aiming to predict future process behaviour during the process execution. Especially, techniques for the next activity prediction anticipate great potential in improving operational business processes. To gain more accurate predictions, a plethora of these techniques rely on deep neural networks (DNNs) and consider information about the context, in which the process is running. However, an in-depth comparison of such techniques is missing in the PBPM literature, which prevents researchers and practitioners from selecting the best solution for a given event log. To remedy this problem, we empirically evaluate the predictive quality of three promising DNN architectures, combined with five proven encoding techniques and based on five context-enriched real-life event logs. We provide four findings that can support researchers and practitioners in designing novel PBPM techniques for predicting the next activities.

Svitlana Vakulenko, Kate Revoredo, Claudio Di Ciccio et al.

Understanding the structure of interaction processes helps us to improve information-seeking dialogue systems. Analyzing an interaction process boils down to discovering patterns in sequences of alternating utterances exchanged between a user and an agent. Process mining techniques have been successfully applied to analyze structured event logs, discovering the underlying process models or evaluating whether the observed behavior is in conformance with the known process. In this paper, we apply process mining techniques to discover patterns in conversational transcripts and extract a new model of information-seeking dialogues, QRFA, for Query, Request, Feedback, Answer. Our results are grounded in an empirical evaluation across multiple conversational datasets from different domains, which was never attempted before. We show that the QRFA model better reflects conversation flows observed in real information-seeking conversations than models proposed previously. Moreover, QRFA allows us to identify malfunctioning in dialogue system transcripts as deviations from the expected conversation flow described by the model via conformance analysis.