Oliver Dürr

Marcel Arpogaus, Marcus Voss, Beate Sick et al.

The transition to a fully renewable energy grid requires better forecasting of demand at the low-voltage level to increase efficiency and ensure reliable control. However, high fluctuations and increasing electrification cause huge forecast variability, not reflected in traditional point estimates. Probabilistic load forecasts take future uncertainties into account and thus allow more informed decision-making for the planning and operation of low-carbon energy systems. We propose an approach for flexible conditional density forecasting of short-term load based on Bernstein polynomial normalizing flows, where a neural network controls the parameters of the flow. In an empirical study with 363 smart meter customers, our density predictions compare favorably against Gaussian and Gaussian mixture densities. Also, they outperform a non-parametric approach based on the pinball loss for 24h-ahead load forecasting for two different neural network architectures.

Oliver Dürr, Po-Yu Fan, Zong-Xian Yin

This study aims to investigate the utilization of Bayesian techniques for the calibration of micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) accelerometers. These devices have garnered substantial interest in various practical applications and typically require calibration through error-correcting functions. The parameters of these error-correcting functions are determined during a calibration process. However, due to various sources of noise, these parameters cannot be determined with precision, making it desirable to incorporate uncertainty in the calibration models. Bayesian modeling offers a natural and complete way of reflecting uncertainty by treating the model parameters as variables rather than fixed values. Additionally, Bayesian modeling enables the incorporation of prior knowledge, making it an ideal choice for calibration. Nevertheless, it is infrequently used in sensor calibration. This study introduces Bayesian methods for the calibration of MEMS accelerometer data in a straightforward manner using recent advances in probabilistic programming.

Daniel Dold, Emanuel Sommer, Julius Kobialka et al.

While parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods like low-rank adaptation (LoRA) are standard for large language models, principled estimation of epistemic uncertainty remains challenging. Recent results in the LoRA regime suggest that discrete multi-mode approaches such as deep ensembles offer little benefit over single-mode methods. This contradicts broader observations in deep learning, where ensembling independent optima typically improves generalization, and linking these modes through continuous low-loss valleys further enhances Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Whether such structure exists in the LoRA space and whether it yields functional diversity missed by local or discrete methods has not been studied. We introduce LoRA-Curve, a segmented Bézier curve parameterization in the LoRA space, with two variants: a free configuration that jointly optimizes all control points, and an anchored configuration that connects independently fine-tuned LoRA optima. We prove pathwise continuity and Lipschitz regularity of the loss along the curve and empirically show, across reasoning and classification benchmarks with Qwen2.5 7B, that linear interpolation encounters loss barriers, while our anchored multi-segment curves connect independent optima through continuous low-loss valleys. Combined with flat-minima perturbations and a Jensen-Shannon divergence regularizer, LoRA-Curve yields measurably higher mutual information of the predictive distribution without sacrificing performance, and links continuous parameter-space traversal to functional diversity.

Kai Brach, Beate Sick, Oliver Dürr

Deep neural networks (NNs) are known for their high-prediction performances. However, NNs are prone to yield unreliable predictions when encountering completely new situations without indicating their uncertainty. Bayesian variants of NNs (BNNs), such as Monte Carlo (MC) dropout BNNs, do provide uncertainty measures and simultaneously increase the prediction performance. The only disadvantage of BNNs is their higher computation time during test time because they rely on a sampling approach. Here we present a single-shot MC dropout approximation that preserves the advantages of BNNs while being as fast as NNs. Our approach is based on moment propagation (MP) and allows to analytically approximate the expected value and the variance of the MC dropout signal for commonly used layers in NNs, i.e. convolution, max pooling, dense, softmax, and dropout layers. The MP approach can convert an NN into a BNN without re-training given the NN has been trained with standard dropout. We evaluate our approach on different benchmark datasets and a simulated toy example in a classification and regression setting. We demonstrate that our single-shot MC dropout approximation resembles the point estimate and the uncertainty estimate of the predictive distribution that is achieved with an MC approach, while being fast enough for real-time deployments of BNNs. We show that using part of the saved time to combine our MP approach with deep ensemble techniques does further improve the uncertainty measures.

Oliver Dürr, Lisa Herzog, Pascal Bühler et al.

Personalized medicine in acute ischemic stroke requires moving beyond average treatment effects (ATE) to individualized treatment effect (ITE) estimates to support treatment decisions. In acute ischemic stroke, mechanical thrombectomy has been shown to be more effective on average than lysis in randomized controlled trials (RCTs), such as the MR CLEAN study. We aim to identify which individual patients benefit most from mechanical thrombectomy compared to lysis. The outcome of interest is the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at three months, an ordinal measure of functional disability (0: no symptoms, 6: death). We demonstrate that causal transformation models on directed acyclic graphs (TRAM-DAG) can be used for ITE estimation after being fitted on observational MAGIC multi-center stroke patient data. To ensure comparability with the MR CLEAN population, which we use for validation, we train the TRAM-DAG on a MAGIC sub-population with NIHSS at admission >= 6, corresponding to one inclusion criterion of MR CLEAN. The fitted model is then used to estimate ITEs for stroke patients in the MR CLEAN population. While these ITE estimates cannot be confirmed experimentally, we show that their average is consistent with the trial's reported ATE. Furthermore, the ITE estimates correctly rank trial patients by their observed frequency of a good outcome (mRS at three months <= 2). These findings support the use of causal models like TRAM-DAG for personalized decision-making in stroke care and highlight their ability to bridge the gap between observational evidence and clinical trials.

Daniel Dold, David Rügamer, Beate Sick et al.

Semi-structured regression models enable the joint modeling of interpretable structured and complex unstructured feature effects. The structured model part is inspired by statistical models and can be used to infer the input-output relationship for features of particular importance. The complex unstructured part defines an arbitrary deep neural network and thereby provides enough flexibility to achieve competitive prediction performance. While these models can also account for aleatoric uncertainty, there is still a lack of work on accounting for epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we address this problem by presenting a Bayesian approximation for semi-structured regression models using subspace inference. To this end, we extend subspace inference for joint posterior sampling from a full parameter space for structured effects and a subspace for unstructured effects. Apart from this hybrid sampling scheme, our method allows for tunable complexity of the subspace and can capture multiple minima in the loss landscape. Numerical experiments validate our approach's efficacy in recovering structured effect parameter posteriors in semi-structured models and approaching the full-space posterior distribution of MCMC for increasing subspace dimension. Further, our approach exhibits competitive predictive performance across simulated and real-world datasets.

Daniel Dold, Julius Kobialka, Nicolai Palm et al.

Understanding the structure of neural network loss surfaces, particularly the emergence of low-loss tunnels, is critical for advancing neural network theory and practice. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to directly embed loss tunnels into the loss landscape of neural networks. Exploring the properties of these loss tunnels offers new insights into their length and structure and sheds light on some common misconceptions. We then apply our approach to Bayesian neural networks, where we improve subspace inference by identifying pitfalls and proposing a more natural prior that better guides the sampling procedure.

Oliver Dürr, Stephan Hörling, Daniel Dold et al.

Variational inference (VI) is a technique to approximate difficult to compute posteriors by optimization. In contrast to MCMC, VI scales to many observations. In the case of complex posteriors, however, state-of-the-art VI approaches often yield unsatisfactory posterior approximations. This paper presents Bernstein flow variational inference (BF-VI), a robust and easy-to-use method, flexible enough to approximate complex multivariate posteriors. BF-VI combines ideas from normalizing flows and Bernstein polynomial-based transformation models. In benchmark experiments, we compare BF-VI solutions with exact posteriors, MCMC solutions, and state-of-the-art VI methods including normalizing flow based VI. We show for low-dimensional models that BF-VI accurately approximates the true posterior; in higher-dimensional models, BF-VI outperforms other VI methods. Further, we develop with BF-VI a Bayesian model for the semi-structured Melanoma challenge data, combining a CNN model part for image data with an interpretable model part for tabular data, and demonstrate for the first time how the use of VI in semi-structured models.

Sefan Hörtling, Daniel Dold, Oliver Dürr et al.

The main challenge in Bayesian models is to determine the posterior for the model parameters. Already, in models with only one or few parameters, the analytical posterior can only be determined in special settings. In Bayesian neural networks, variational inference is widely used to approximate difficult-to-compute posteriors by variational distributions. Usually, Gaussians are used as variational distributions (Gaussian-VI) which limits the quality of the approximation due to their limited flexibility. Transformation models on the other hand are flexible enough to fit any distribution. Here we present transformation model-based variational inference (TM-VI) and demonstrate that it allows to accurately approximate complex posteriors in models with one parameter and also works in a mean-field fashion for multi-parameter models like neural networks.

Lucas Kook, Lisa Herzog, Torsten Hothorn et al.

Outcomes with a natural order commonly occur in prediction tasks and often the available input data are a mixture of complex data like images and tabular predictors. Deep Learning (DL) models are state-of-the-art for image classification tasks but frequently treat ordinal outcomes as unordered and lack interpretability. In contrast, classical ordinal regression models consider the outcome's order and yield interpretable predictor effects but are limited to tabular data. We present ordinal neural network transformation models (ONTRAMs), which unite DL with classical ordinal regression approaches. ONTRAMs are a special case of transformation models and trade off flexibility and interpretability by additively decomposing the transformation function into terms for image and tabular data using jointly trained neural networks. The performance of the most flexible ONTRAM is by definition equivalent to a standard multi-class DL model trained with cross-entropy while being faster in training when facing ordinal outcomes. Lastly, we discuss how to interpret model components for both tabular and image data on two publicly available datasets.

Lisa Herzog, Elvis Murina, Oliver Dürr et al.

At present, the majority of the proposed Deep Learning (DL) methods provide point predictions without quantifying the models uncertainty. However, a quantification of the reliability of automated image analysis is essential, in particular in medicine when physicians rely on the results for making critical treatment decisions. In this work, we provide an entire framework to diagnose ischemic stroke patients incorporating Bayesian uncertainty into the analysis procedure. We present a Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) yielding a probability for a stroke lesion on 2D Magnetic Resonance (MR) images with corresponding uncertainty information about the reliability of the prediction. For patient-level diagnoses, different aggregation methods are proposed and evaluated, which combine the single image-level predictions. Those methods take advantage of the uncertainty in image predictions and report model uncertainty at the patient-level. In a cohort of 511 patients, our Bayesian CNN achieved an accuracy of 95.33% at the image-level representing a significant improvement of 2% over a non-Bayesian counterpart. The best patient aggregation method yielded 95.89% of accuracy. Integrating uncertainty information about image predictions in aggregation models resulted in higher uncertainty measures to false patient classifications, which enabled to filter critical patient diagnoses that are supposed to be closer examined by a medical doctor. We therefore recommend using Bayesian approaches not only for improved image-level prediction and uncertainty estimation but also for the detection of uncertain aggregations at the patient-level.

Kai Brach, Beate Sick, Oliver Dürr

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are known for their high prediction performance, especially in perceptual tasks such as object recognition or autonomous driving. Still, DNNs are prone to yield unreliable predictions when encountering completely new situations without indicating their uncertainty. Bayesian variants of DNNs (BDNNs), such as MC dropout BDNNs, do provide uncertainty measures. However, BDNNs are slow during test time because they rely on a sampling approach. Here we present a single shot MC dropout approximation that preserves the advantages of BDNNs without being slower than a DNN. Our approach is to analytically approximate for each layer in a fully connected network the expected value and the variance of the MC dropout signal. We evaluate our approach on different benchmark datasets and a simulated toy example. We demonstrate that our single shot MC dropout approximation resembles the point estimate and the uncertainty estimate of the predictive distribution that is achieved with an MC approach, while being fast enough for real-time deployments of BDNNs.

Beate Sick, Torsten Hothorn, Oliver Dürr

We present a deep transformation model for probabilistic regression. Deep learning is known for outstandingly accurate predictions on complex data but in regression tasks, it is predominantly used to just predict a single number. This ignores the non-deterministic character of most tasks. Especially if crucial decisions are based on the predictions, like in medical applications, it is essential to quantify the prediction uncertainty. The presented deep learning transformation model estimates the whole conditional probability distribution, which is the most thorough way to capture uncertainty about the outcome. We combine ideas from a statistical transformation model (most likely transformation) with recent transformation models from deep learning (normalizing flows) to predict complex outcome distributions. The core of the method is a parameterized transformation function which can be trained with the usual maximum likelihood framework using gradient descent. The method can be combined with existing deep learning architectures. For small machine learning benchmark datasets, we report state of the art performance for most dataset and partly even outperform it. Our method works for complex input data, which we demonstrate by employing a CNN architecture on image data.

Benjamin Bruno Meier, Ismail Elezi, Mohammadreza Amirian et al.

We propose a novel end-to-end neural network architecture that, once trained, directly outputs a probabilistic clustering of a batch of input examples in one pass. It estimates a distribution over the number of clusters $k$, and for each $1 \leq k \leq k_\mathrm{max}$, a distribution over the individual cluster assignment for each data point. The network is trained in advance in a supervised fashion on separate data to learn grouping by any perceptual similarity criterion based on pairwise labels (same/different group). It can then be applied to different data containing different groups. We demonstrate promising performance on high-dimensional data like images (COIL-100) and speech (TIMIT). We call this ``learning to cluster'' and show its conceptual difference to deep metric learning, semi-supervise clustering and other related approaches while having the advantage of performing learnable clustering fully end-to-end.