A simple learning agent interacting with an agent-based market modelMatthew Dicks, Andrew Paskaramoorthy, Tim Gebbie
We consider the learning dynamics of a single reinforcement learning optimal execution trading agent when it interacts with an event driven agent-based financial market model. Trading takes place asynchronously through a matching engine in event time. The optimal execution agent is considered at different levels of initial order-sizes and differently sized state spaces. The resulting impact on the agent-based model and market are considered using a calibration approach that explores changes in the empirical stylised facts and price impact curves. Convergence, volume trajectory and action trace plots are used to visualise the learning dynamics. Here the smaller state space agents had the number of states they visited converge much faster than the larger state space agents, and they were able to start learning to trade intuitively using the spread and volume states. We find that the moments of the model are robust to the impact of the learning agents except for the Hurst exponent, which was lowered by the introduction of strategic order-splitting. The introduction of the learning agent preserves the shape of the price impact curves but can reduce the trade-sign auto-correlations when their trading volumes increase.
Pareto Driven Surrogate (ParDen-Sur) Assisted Optimisation of Multi-period Portfolio Backtest SimulationsTerence L. van Zyl, Matthew Woolway, Andrew Paskaramoorthy
Portfolio management is a multi-period multi-objective optimisation problem subject to a wide range of constraints. However, in practice, portfolio management is treated as a single-period problem partly due to the computationally burdensome hyper-parameter search procedure needed to construct a multi-period Pareto frontier. This study presents the \gls{ParDen-Sur} modelling framework to efficiently perform the required hyper-parameter search. \gls{ParDen-Sur} extends previous surrogate frameworks by including a reservoir sampling-based look-ahead mechanism for offspring generation in \glspl{EA} alongside the traditional acceptance sampling scheme. We evaluate this framework against, and in conjunction with, several seminal \gls{MO} \glspl{EA} on two datasets for both the single- and multi-period use cases. Our results show that \gls{ParDen-Sur} can speed up the exploration for optimal hyper-parameters by almost $2\times$ with a statistically significant improvement of the Pareto frontiers, across multiple \glspl{EA}, for both datasets and use cases.