Vasileios Saketos

Vasileios Saketos, Ming Xiao

State estimation is a fundamental problem in control and signal processing, for which the Kalman Filter provides an optimal solution under linear dynamics, Gaussian noise, and known noise covariances. However, these assumptions often fail in realistic sensing settings such as Doppler radar and LiDAR. In these cases, the optimal estimator is inherently nonlinear, which leads to systematic performance degradation. This creates a performance gap that cannot be eliminated by tuning the noise covariance parameters (i.e., the process and measurement noise in the Kalman Filter) alone. To address this limitation, we propose Kalman Evolve, a framework for discovering improved filtering algorithms by jointly optimizing both noise parameters and the update structure. Our approach leverages large language models (LLMs) as a structured prior over program space, enabling the generation of interpretable, non-affine modifications to the classical Kalman filter while preserving its recursive form. We provide analytical results establishing the suboptimality of affine estimators under common nonlinear sensing models, motivating the need for structure-aware updates. Across a range of synthetic and real-world tracking benchmarks, including Doppler radar, LiDAR-based localization, and pedestrian tracking, the discovered algorithms consistently improve over strong baselines such as the Optimized Kalman Filter, achieving up to 12\% reduction in RMSE. These results suggest that optimizing the structure of the Kalman filter, rather than only its parameters, provides a practical and interpretable way to improve state estimation.

William Réveillard, Vasileios Saketos, Alexandre Proutiere et al.

We introduce and study an online problem arising in question answering systems. In this problem, an agent must sequentially classify user-submitted queries represented by $d$-dimensional embeddings drawn i.i.d. from an unknown distribution. The agent may consult a costly human expert for the correct label, or guess on her own without receiving feedback. The goal is to minimize regret against an oracle with free expert access. When the time horizon $T$ is at least exponential in the embedding dimension $d$, one can learn the geometry of the class regions: in this regime, we propose the Conservative Hull-based Classifier (CHC), which maintains convex hulls of expert-labeled queries and calls the expert as soon as a query lands outside all known hulls. CHC attains $\mathcal{O}(\log^d T)$ regret in $T$ and is minimax optimal for $d=1$. Otherwise, the geometry cannot be reliably learned without additional distributional assumptions. We show that when the queries are drawn from a subgaussian mixture, for $T \le e^d$, a Center-based Classifier (CC) achieves regret proportional to $N\log{N}$ where $N$ is the number of labels. To bridge these regimes, we introduce the Generalized Hull-based Classifier (GHC), a practical extension of CHC that allows for more aggressive guessing via a tunable threshold parameter. Our approach is validated with experiments, notably on real-world question-answering datasets using embeddings derived from state-of-the-art large language models.

Vasileios Saketos, Sebastian Kaltenbach, Sergey Litvinov et al.

Algorithmic discovery has traditionally relied on human ingenuity and extensive experimentation. Here we investigate whether a prominent scientific computing algorithm, the Kalman Filter, can be discovered through an automated, data-driven, evolutionary process that relies on Cartesian Genetic Programming (CGP) and Large Language Models (LLM). We evaluate the contributions of both modalities (CGP and LLM) in discovering the Kalman filter under varying conditions. Our results demonstrate that our framework of CGP and LLM-assisted evolution converges to near-optimal solutions when Kalman optimality assumptions hold. When these assumptions are violated, our framework evolves interpretable alternatives that outperform the Kalman filter. These results demonstrate that combining evolutionary algorithms and generative models for interpretable, data-driven synthesis of simple computational modules is a potent approach for algorithmic discovery in scientific computing.