Luc Johannes Josephus Wismans

Jesper C. Provoost, Andreas Kamilaris, Gyözö Gidófalvi et al.

In ridepooling systems with electric fleets, charging is a complex decision-making process. Most electric vehicle (EV) taxi services require drivers to make egoistic decisions, leading to decentralized ad-hoc charging strategies. The current state of the mobility system is often lacking or not shared between vehicles, making it impossible to make a system-optimal decision. Most existing approaches do not combine time, location and duration into a comprehensive control algorithm or are unsuitable for real-time operation. We therefore present a real-time predictive charging method for ridepooling services with a single operator, called Idle Time Exploitation (ITX), which predicts the periods where vehicles are idle and exploits these periods to harvest energy. It relies on Graph Convolutional Networks and a linear assignment algorithm to devise an optimal pairing of vehicles and charging stations, in pursuance of maximizing the exploited idle time. We evaluated our approach through extensive simulation studies on real-world datasets from New York City. The results demonstrate that ITX outperforms all baseline methods by at least 5% (equivalent to $70,000 for a 6,000 vehicle operation) per week in terms of a monetary reward function which was modeled to replicate the profitability of a real-world ridepooling system. Moreover, ITX can reduce delays by at least 4.68% in comparison with baseline methods and generally increase passenger comfort by facilitating a better spread of customers across the fleet. Our results also demonstrate that ITX enables vehicles to harvest energy during the day, stabilizing battery levels and increasing resilience to unexpected surges in demand. Lastly, compared to the best-performing baseline strategy, peak loads are reduced by 17.39% which benefits grid operators and paves the way for more sustainable use of the electrical grid.

Jesper Provoost, Luc Wismans, Sander Van der Drift et al.

Public road authorities and private mobility service providers need information derived from the current and predicted traffic states to act upon the daily urban system and its spatial and temporal dynamics. In this research, a real-time parking area state (occupancy, in- and outflux) prediction model (up to 60 minutes ahead) has been developed using publicly available historic and real time data sources. Based on a case study in a real-life scenario in the city of Arnhem, a Neural Network-based approach outperforms a Random Forest-based one on all assessed performance measures, although the differences are small. Both are outperforming a naive seasonal random walk model. Although the performance degrades with increasing prediction horizon, the model shows a performance gain of over 150% at a prediction horizon of 60 minutes compared with the naive model. Furthermore, it is shown that predicting the in- and outflux is a far more difficult task (i.e. performance gains of 30%) which needs more training data, not based exclusively on occupancy rate. However, the performance of predicting in- and outflux is less sensitive to the prediction horizon. In addition, it is shown that real-time information of current occupancy rate is the independent variable with the highest contribution to the performance, although time, traffic flow and weather variables also deliver a significant contribution. During real-time deployment, the model performs three times better than the naive model on average. As a result, it can provide valuable information for proactive traffic management as well as mobility service providers.