Andrew D. Gordon

Andrew D. Gordon, Carina Negreanu, José Cambronero et al. · microsoft-research

Users are increasingly being warned to check AI-generated content for correctness. Still, as LLMs (and other generative models) generate more complex output, such as summaries, tables, or code, it becomes harder for the user to audit or evaluate the output for quality or correctness. Hence, we are seeing the emergence of tool-assisted experiences to help the user double-check a piece of AI-generated content. We refer to these as co-audit tools. Co-audit tools complement prompt engineering techniques: one helps the user construct the input prompt, while the other helps them check the output response. As a specific example, this paper describes recent research on co-audit tools for spreadsheet computations powered by generative models. We explain why co-audit experiences are essential for any application of generative AI where quality is important and errors are consequential (as is common in spreadsheet computations). We propose a preliminary list of principles for co-audit, and outline research challenges.

Shraddha Barke, Christian Poelitz, Carina Suzana Negreanu et al.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly replacing help forums like StackOverflow, and are especially helpful for non-professional programmers and end users. These users are often interested in data-centric tasks, such as spreadsheet manipulation and data wrangling, which are hard to solve if the intent is only communicated using a natural-language description, without including the data. But how do we decide how much data and which data to include in the prompt? This paper makes two contributions towards answering this question. First, we create a dataset of real-world NL-to-code tasks manipulating tabular data, mined from StackOverflow posts. Second, we introduce a cluster-then-select prompting technique, which adds the most representative rows from the input data to the LLM prompt. Our experiments show that LLM performance is indeed sensitive to the amount of data passed in the prompt, and that for tasks with a lot of syntactic variation in the input table, our cluster-then-select technique outperforms a random selection baseline.

Maria I. Gorinova, Andrew D. Gordon, Charles Sutton et al.

A central goal of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) is to separate modelling from inference. However, this goal is hard to achieve in practice. Users are often forced to re-write their models in order to improve efficiency of inference or meet restrictions imposed by the PPL. Conditional independence (CI) relationships among parameters are a crucial aspect of probabilistic models that capture a qualitative summary of the specified model and can facilitate more efficient inference. We present an information flow type system for probabilistic programming that captures conditional independence (CI) relationships, and show that, for a well-typed program in our system, the distribution it implements is guaranteed to have certain CI-relationships. Further, by using type inference, we can statically deduce which CI-properties are present in a specified model. As a practical application, we consider the problem of how to perform inference on models with mixed discrete and continuous parameters. Inference on such models is challenging in many existing PPLs, but can be improved through a workaround, where the discrete parameters are used implicitly, at the expense of manual model re-writing. We present a source-to-source semantics-preserving transformation, which uses our CI-type system to automate this workaround by eliminating the discrete parameters from a probabilistic program. The resulting program can be seen as a hybrid inference algorithm on the original program, where continuous parameters can be drawn using efficient gradient-based inference methods, while the discrete parameters are inferred using variable elimination. We implement our CI-type system and its example application in SlicStan: a compositional variant of Stan.

Sooraj Bhat, Johannes Borgström, Andrew D. Gordon et al.

The probability density function of a probability distribution is a fundamental concept in probability theory and a key ingredient in various widely used machine learning methods. However, the necessary framework for compiling probabilistic functional programs to density functions has only recently been developed. In this work, we present a density compiler for a probabilistic language with failure and both discrete and continuous distributions, and provide a proof of its soundness. The compiler greatly reduces the development effort of domain experts, which we demonstrate by solving inference problems from various scientific applications, such as modelling the global carbon cycle, using a standard Markov chain Monte Carlo framework.

Diana Borsa, Thore Graepel, Andrew Gordon

We consider the problem of modelling noisy but highly symmetric shapes that can be viewed as hierarchies of whole-part relationships in which higher level objects are composed of transformed collections of lower level objects. To this end, we propose the stochastic wreath process, a fully generative probabilistic model of drawings. Following Leyton's "Generative Theory of Shape", we represent shapes as sequences of transformation groups composed through a wreath product. This representation emphasizes the maximization of transfer --- the idea that the most compact and meaningful representation of a given shape is achieved by maximizing the re-use of existing building blocks or parts. The proposed stochastic wreath process extends Leyton's theory by defining a probability distribution over geometric shapes in terms of noise processes that are aligned with the generative group structure of the shape. We propose an inference scheme for recovering the generative history of given images in terms of the wreath process using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and Approximate Bayesian Computation. In the context of sketching we demonstrate the feasibility and limitations of this approach on model-generated and real data.

Johannes Borgström, Andrew D Gordon, Michael Greenberg et al.

The Bayesian approach to machine learning amounts to computing posterior distributions of random variables from a probabilistic model of how the variables are related (that is, a prior distribution) and a set of observations of variables. There is a trend in machine learning towards expressing Bayesian models as probabilistic programs. As a foundation for this kind of programming, we propose a core functional calculus with primitives for sampling prior distributions and observing variables. We define measure-transformer combinators inspired by theorems in measure theory, and use these to give a rigorous semantics to our core calculus. The original features of our semantics include its support for discrete, continuous, and hybrid measures, and, in particular, for observations of zero-probability events. We compile our core language to a small imperative language that is processed by an existing inference engine for factor graphs, which are data structures that enable many efficient inference algorithms. This allows efficient approximate inference of posterior marginal distributions, treating thousands of observations per second for large instances of realistic models.