Nils Jansen

Steven Carr, Nils Jansen, Sebastian Junges et al.

Safe exploration is a common problem in reinforcement learning (RL) that aims to prevent agents from making disastrous decisions while exploring their environment. A family of approaches to this problem assume domain knowledge in the form of a (partial) model of this environment to decide upon the safety of an action. A so-called shield forces the RL agent to select only safe actions. However, for adoption in various applications, one must look beyond enforcing safety and also ensure the applicability of RL with good performance. We extend the applicability of shields via tight integration with state-of-the-art deep RL, and provide an extensive, empirical study in challenging, sparse-reward environments under partial observability. We show that a carefully integrated shield ensures safety and can improve the convergence rate and final performance of RL agents. We furthermore show that a shield can be used to bootstrap state-of-the-art RL agents: they remain safe after initial learning in a shielded setting, allowing us to disable a potentially too conservative shield eventually.

Sebastian Junges, Nils Jansen, Ralf Wimmer et al.

We study finite-state controllers (FSCs) for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) that are provably correct with respect to given specifications. The key insight is that computing (randomised) FSCs on POMDPs is equivalent to - and computationally as hard as - synthesis for parametric Markov chains (pMCs). This correspondence allows to use tools for parameter synthesis in pMCs to compute correct-by-construction FSCs on POMDPs for a variety of specifications. Our experimental evaluation shows comparable performance to well-known POMDP solvers.

Thom Badings, Licio Romao, Alessandro Abate et al.

Controllers for dynamical systems that operate in safety-critical settings must account for stochastic disturbances. Such disturbances are often modeled as process noise in a dynamical system, and common assumptions are that the underlying distributions are known and/or Gaussian. In practice, however, these assumptions may be unrealistic and can lead to poor approximations of the true noise distribution. We present a novel controller synthesis method that does not rely on any explicit representation of the noise distributions. In particular, we address the problem of computing a controller that provides probabilistic guarantees on safely reaching a target, while also avoiding unsafe regions of the state space. First, we abstract the continuous control system into a finite-state model that captures noise by probabilistic transitions between discrete states. As a key contribution, we adapt tools from the scenario approach to compute probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds on these transition probabilities, based on a finite number of samples of the noise. We capture these bounds in the transition probability intervals of a so-called interval Markov decision process (iMDP). This iMDP is, with a user-specified confidence probability, robust against uncertainty in the transition probabilities, and the tightness of the probability intervals can be controlled through the number of samples. We use state-of-the-art verification techniques to provide guarantees on the iMDP and compute a controller for which these guarantees carry over to the original control system. In addition, we develop a tailored computational scheme that reduces the complexity of the synthesis of these guarantees on the iMDP. Benchmarks on realistic control systems show the practical applicability of our method, even when the iMDP has hundreds of millions of transitions.

Marnix Suilen, Thiago D. Simão, David Parker et al.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are formal models commonly used in sequential decision-making. MDPs capture the stochasticity that may arise, for instance, from imprecise actuators via probabilities in the transition function. However, in data-driven applications, deriving precise probabilities from (limited) data introduces statistical errors that may lead to unexpected or undesirable outcomes. Uncertain MDPs (uMDPs) do not require precise probabilities but instead use so-called uncertainty sets in the transitions, accounting for such limited data. Tools from the formal verification community efficiently compute robust policies that provably adhere to formal specifications, like safety constraints, under the worst-case instance in the uncertainty set. We continuously learn the transition probabilities of an MDP in a robust anytime-learning approach that combines a dedicated Bayesian inference scheme with the computation of robust policies. In particular, our method (1) approximates probabilities as intervals, (2) adapts to new data that may be inconsistent with an intermediate model, and (3) may be stopped at any time to compute a robust policy on the uMDP that faithfully captures the data so far. Furthermore, our method is capable of adapting to changes in the environment. We show the effectiveness of our approach and compare it to robust policies computed on uMDPs learned by the UCRL2 reinforcement learning algorithm in an experimental evaluation on several benchmarks.

Thom Badings, Licio Romao, Alessandro Abate et al.

Capturing uncertainty in models of complex dynamical systems is crucial to designing safe controllers. Stochastic noise causes aleatoric uncertainty, whereas imprecise knowledge of model parameters leads to epistemic uncertainty. Several approaches use formal abstractions to synthesize policies that satisfy temporal specifications related to safety and reachability. However, the underlying models exclusively capture aleatoric but not epistemic uncertainty, and thus require that model parameters are known precisely. Our contribution to overcoming this restriction is a novel abstraction-based controller synthesis method for continuous-state models with stochastic noise and uncertain parameters. By sampling techniques and robust analysis, we capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, with a user-specified confidence level, in the transition probability intervals of a so-called interval Markov decision process (iMDP). We synthesize an optimal policy on this iMDP, which translates (with the specified confidence level) to a feedback controller for the continuous model with the same performance guarantees. Our experimental benchmarks confirm that accounting for epistemic uncertainty leads to controllers that are more robust against variations in parameter values.

Mohamadreza Ahmadi, Murat Cubuktepe, Nils Jansen et al.

We consider a class of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with uncertain transition and/or observation probabilities. The uncertainty takes the form of probability intervals. Such uncertain POMDPs can be used, for example, to model autonomous agents with sensors with limited accuracy, or agents undergoing a sudden component failure, or structural damage [1]. Given an uncertain POMDP representation of the autonomous agent, our goal is to propose a method for checking whether the system will satisfy an optimal performance, while not violating a safety requirement (e.g. fuel level, velocity, and etc.). To this end, we cast the POMDP problem into a switched system scenario. We then take advantage of this switched system characterization and propose a method based on barrier certificates for optimality and/or safety verification. We then show that the verification task can be carried out computationally by sum-of-squares programming. We illustrate the efficacy of our method by applying it to a Mars rover exploration example.

Dennis Gross, Nils Jansen, Sebastian Junges et al.

This paper presents COOL-MC, a tool that integrates state-of-the-art reinforcement learning (RL) and model checking. Specifically, the tool builds upon the OpenAI gym and the probabilistic model checker Storm. COOL-MC provides the following features: (1) a simulator to train RL policies in the OpenAI gym for Markov decision processes (MDPs) that are defined as input for Storm, (2) a new model builder for Storm, which uses callback functions to verify (neural network) RL policies, (3) formal abstractions that relate models and policies specified in OpenAI gym or Storm, and (4) algorithms to obtain bounds on the performance of so-called permissive policies. We describe the components and architecture of COOL-MC and demonstrate its features on multiple benchmark environments.

Maris F. L. Galesloot, Marnix Suilen, Thiago D. Simão et al.

Robust POMDPs extend classical POMDPs to incorporate model uncertainty using so-called uncertainty sets on the transition and observation functions, effectively defining ranges of probabilities. Policies for robust POMDPs must be (1) memory-based to account for partial observability and (2) robust against model uncertainty to account for the worst-case probability instances from the uncertainty sets. To compute such robust memory-based policies, we propose the pessimistic iterative planning (PIP) framework, which alternates between (1) selecting pessimistic POMDPs via worst-case probability instances from the uncertainty sets, and (2) computing finite-state controllers (FSCs) for these pessimistic POMDPs. Within PIP, we propose the rFSCNet algorithm, which optimizes a recurrent neural network to compute the FSCs. The empirical evaluation shows that rFSCNet can compute better-performing robust policies than several baselines and a state-of-the-art robust POMDP solver.

Thom Badings, Thiago D. Simão, Marnix Suilen et al.

This position paper reflects on the state-of-the-art in decision-making under uncertainty. A classical assumption is that probabilities can sufficiently capture all uncertainty in a system. In this paper, the focus is on the uncertainty that goes beyond this classical interpretation, particularly by employing a clear distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. The paper features an overview of Markov decision processes (MDPs) and extensions to account for partial observability and adversarial behavior. These models sufficiently capture aleatoric uncertainty but fail to account for epistemic uncertainty robustly. Consequently, we present a thorough overview of so-called uncertainty models that exhibit uncertainty in a more robust interpretation. We show several solution techniques for both discrete and continuous models, ranging from formal verification, over control-based abstractions, to reinforcement learning. As an integral part of this paper, we list and discuss several key challenges that arise when dealing with rich types of uncertainty in a model-based fashion.

Yannick Hogewind, Thiago D. Simao, Tal Kachman et al.

We address the problem of safe reinforcement learning from pixel observations. Inherent challenges in such settings are (1) a trade-off between reward optimization and adhering to safety constraints, (2) partial observability, and (3) high-dimensional observations. We formalize the problem in a constrained, partially observable Markov decision process framework, where an agent obtains distinct reward and safety signals. To address the curse of dimensionality, we employ a novel safety critic using the stochastic latent actor-critic (SLAC) approach. The latent variable model predicts rewards and safety violations, and we use the safety critic to train safe policies. Using well-known benchmark environments, we demonstrate competitive performance over existing approaches with respects to computational requirements, final reward return, and satisfying the safety constraints.

Zaharah A. Bukhsh, Nils Jansen, Hajo Molegraaf

Cost-effective asset management is an area of interest across several industries. Specifically, this paper develops a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) solution to automatically determine an optimal rehabilitation policy for continuously deteriorating water pipes. We approach the problem of rehabilitation planning in an online and offline DRL setting. In online DRL, the agent interacts with a simulated environment of multiple pipes with distinct lengths, materials, and failure rate characteristics. We train the agent using deep Q-learning (DQN) to learn an optimal policy with minimal average costs and reduced failure probability. In offline learning, the agent uses static data, e.g., DQN replay data, to learn an optimal policy via a conservative Q-learning algorithm without further interactions with the environment. We demonstrate that DRL-based policies improve over standard preventive, corrective, and greedy planning alternatives. Additionally, learning from the fixed DQN replay dataset in an offline setting further improves the performance. The results warrant that the existing deterioration profiles of water pipes consisting of large and diverse states and action trajectories provide a valuable avenue to learn rehabilitation policies in the offline setting, which can be further fine-tuned using the simulator.

Merlijn Krale, Thiago D. Simão, Nils Jansen

We study Markov decision processes (MDPs), where agents have direct control over when and how they gather information, as formalized by action-contingent noiselessly observable MDPs (ACNO-MPDs). In these models, actions consist of two components: a control action that affects the environment, and a measurement action that affects what the agent can observe. To solve ACNO-MDPs, we introduce the act-then-measure (ATM) heuristic, which assumes that we can ignore future state uncertainty when choosing control actions. We show how following this heuristic may lead to shorter policy computation times and prove a bound on the performance loss incurred by the heuristic. To decide whether or not to take a measurement action, we introduce the concept of measuring value. We develop a reinforcement learning algorithm based on the ATM heuristic, using a Dyna-Q variant adapted for partially observable domains, and showcase its superior performance compared to prior methods on a number of partially-observable environments.

Thiago D. Simão, Marnix Suilen, Nils Jansen

We study safe policy improvement (SPI) for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). SPI is an offline reinforcement learning (RL) problem that assumes access to (1) historical data about an environment, and (2) the so-called behavior policy that previously generated this data by interacting with the environment. SPI methods neither require access to a model nor the environment itself, and aim to reliably improve the behavior policy in an offline manner. Existing methods make the strong assumption that the environment is fully observable. In our novel approach to the SPI problem for POMDPs, we assume that a finite-state controller (FSC) represents the behavior policy and that finite memory is sufficient to derive optimal policies. This assumption allows us to map the POMDP to a finite-state fully observable MDP, the history MDP. We estimate this MDP by combining the historical data and the memory of the FSC, and compute an improved policy using an off-the-shelf SPI algorithm. The underlying SPI method constrains the policy-space according to the available data, such that the newly computed policy only differs from the behavior policy when sufficient data was available. We show that this new policy, converted into a new FSC for the (unknown) POMDP, outperforms the behavior policy with high probability. Experimental results on several well-established benchmarks show the applicability of the approach, even in cases where finite memory is not sufficient.

Qisong Yang, Thiago D. Simão, Nils Jansen et al.

Safety is critical to broadening the application of reinforcement learning (RL). Often, we train RL agents in a controlled environment, such as a laboratory, before deploying them in the real world. However, the real-world target task might be unknown prior to deployment. Reward-free RL trains an agent without the reward to adapt quickly once the reward is revealed. We consider the constrained reward-free setting, where an agent (the guide) learns to explore safely without the reward signal. This agent is trained in a controlled environment, which allows unsafe interactions and still provides the safety signal. After the target task is revealed, safety violations are not allowed anymore. Thus, the guide is leveraged to compose a safe behaviour policy. Drawing from transfer learning, we also regularize a target policy (the student) towards the guide while the student is unreliable and gradually eliminate the influence of the guide as training progresses. The empirical analysis shows that this method can achieve safe transfer learning and helps the student solve the target task faster.

Dennis Gross, Thiago D. Simao, Nils Jansen et al.

Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents are susceptible to adversarial noise in their observations that can mislead their policies and decrease their performance. However, an adversary may be interested not only in decreasing the reward, but also in modifying specific temporal logic properties of the policy. This paper presents a metric that measures the exact impact of adversarial attacks against such properties. We use this metric to craft optimal adversarial attacks. Furthermore, we introduce a model checking method that allows us to verify the robustness of RL policies against adversarial attacks. Our empirical analysis confirms (1) the quality of our metric to craft adversarial attacks against temporal logic properties, and (2) that we are able to concisely assess a system's robustness against attacks.

Lisandro A. Jimenez-Roa, Thiago D. Simão, Zaharah Bukhsh et al.

Large-scale infrastructure systems are crucial for societal welfare, and their effective management requires strategic forecasting and intervention methods that account for various complexities. Our study addresses two challenges within the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) framework applied to sewer assets: modeling pipe degradation across severity levels and developing effective maintenance policies. We employ Multi-State Degradation Models (MSDM) to represent the stochastic degradation process in sewer pipes and use Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to devise maintenance strategies. A case study of a Dutch sewer network exemplifies our methodology. Our findings demonstrate the model's effectiveness in generating intelligent, cost-saving maintenance strategies that surpass heuristics. It adapts its management strategy based on the pipe's age, opting for a passive approach for newer pipes and transitioning to active strategies for older ones to prevent failures and reduce costs. This research highlights DRL's potential in optimizing maintenance policies. Future research will aim improve the model by incorporating partial observability, exploring various reinforcement learning algorithms, and extending this methodology to comprehensive infrastructure management.

David Hudák, Maris F. L. Galesloot, Martin Tappler et al.

Solving partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) requires computing policies under imperfect state information. Despite recent advances, the scalability of existing POMDP solvers remains limited. Moreover, many settings require a policy that is robust across multiple POMDPs, further aggravating the scalability issue. We propose the Lexpop framework for POMDP solving. Lexpop (1) employs deep reinforcement learning to train a neural policy, represented by a recurrent neural network, and (2) constructs a finite-state controller mimicking the neural policy through efficient extraction methods. Crucially, unlike neural policies, such controllers can be formally evaluated, providing performance guarantees. We extend Lexpop to compute robust policies for hidden-model POMDPs (HM-POMDPs), which describe finite sets of POMDPs. We associate every extracted controller with its worst-case POMDP. Using a set of such POMDPs, we iteratively train a robust neural policy and consequently extract a robust controller. Our experiments show that on problems with large state spaces, Lexpop outperforms state-of-the-art solvers for POMDPs as well as HM-POMDPs.

Thom Badings, Nils Jansen, Licio Romao et al.

Automated synthesis of correct-by-construction controllers for autonomous systems is crucial for their deployment in safety-critical scenarios. Such autonomous systems are naturally modeled as stochastic dynamical models. The general problem is to compute a controller that provably satisfies a given task, represented as a probabilistic temporal logic specification. However, factors such as stochastic uncertainty, imprecisely known parameters, and hybrid features make this problem challenging. We have developed an abstraction framework that can be used to solve this problem under various modeling assumptions. Our approach is based on a robust finite-state abstraction of the stochastic dynamical model in the form of a Markov decision process with intervals of probabilities (iMDP). We use state-of-the-art verification techniques to compute an optimal policy on the iMDP with guarantees for satisfying the given specification. We then show that, by construction, we can refine this policy into a feedback controller for which these guarantees carry over to the dynamical model. In this short paper, we survey our recent research in this area and highlight two challenges (related to scalability and dealing with nonlinear dynamics) that we aim to address with our ongoing research.

Joshua Wendland, Markel Zubia, Roman Andriushchenko et al.

We introduce missingness-MDPs (miss-MDPs), a novel subclass of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) that incorporates the theory of missing data. A miss-MDP is a POMDP whose observation function is a missingness function, specifying the probability that individual state features are missing (i.e., unobserved) at a time step. The literature distinguishes three canonical missingness types: missing (1) completely at random (MCAR), (2) at random (MAR), and (3) not at random (MNAR). Our planning problem is to compute near-optimal policies for a miss-MDP with an unknown missingness function, given a dataset of action-observation trajectories. Achieving such optimality guarantees for policies requires learning the missingness function from data, which is infeasible for general POMDPs. To overcome this challenge, we exploit the structural properties of different missingness types to derive probably approximately correct (PAC) algorithms for learning the missingness function. These algorithms yield an approximate but fully specified miss-MDP that we solve using off-the-shelf planning methods. We prove that, with high probability, the resulting policies are epsilon-optimal in the true miss-MDP. Empirical results confirm the theory and demonstrate superior performance of our approach over two model-free POMDP methods.

Maris F. L. Galesloot, Thomas Rhemrev, Nils Jansen

In offline reinforcement learning (RL), we learn policies from fixed datasets without environment interaction. The major challenges are to provide guarantees on the (1) performance and (2) safety of the resulting policy. A technique called safe policy improvement (SPI) provides a performance guarantee: with high probability, the new policy outperforms a given baseline policy, which is assumed to be safe. Orthogonally, in the context of safe RL, a shield provides a safety guarantee by restricting the action space to those actions that are provably safe with respect to a given safety-relevant model. We integrate these paradigms by extending shielding to offline RL, relying solely on the available dataset and knowledge of safe and unsafe states. Then, we shield the policy improvement steps, guaranteeing, with high probability, a safe policy. Experimental results demonstrate that shielded SPI outperforms its unshielded counterpart, improving both average and worst-case performance, particularly in low-data regimes.

Murat Cubuktepe, Nils Jansen, Sebastian Junges et al.

This paper considers parametric Markov decision processes (pMDPs) whose transitions are equipped with affine functions over a finite set of parameters. The synthesis problem is to find a parameter valuation such that the instantiated pMDP satisfies a specification under all strategies. We show that this problem can be formulated as a quadratically-constrained quadratic program (QCQP) and is non-convex in general. To deal with the NP-hardness of such problems, we exploit a convex-concave procedure (CCP) to iteratively obtain local optima. An appropriate interplay between CCP solvers and probabilistic model checkers creates a procedure --- realized in the open-source tool PROPhESY --- that solves the synthesis problem for models with thousands of parameters.

Miriam Schäfers, Merlijn Krale, Thiago D. Simão et al.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are a principled planning model for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Yet, real-world problems with high-dimensional observations, such as camera images, remain intractable for traditional belief- and filtering-based solvers. To tackle this problem, we introduce the Perception-based Beliefs for POMDPs framework (PBP), which complements such solvers with a perception model. This model takes the form of an image classifier which maps visual observations to probability distributions over states. PBP incorporates these distributions directly into belief updates, so the underlying solver does not need to reason explicitly over high-dimensional observation spaces. We show that the belief update of PBP coincides with the standard belief update if the image classifier is exact. Moreover, to handle classifier imprecision, we incorporate uncertainty quantification and introduce two methods to adjust the belief update accordingly. We implement PBP using two traditional POMDP solvers and empirically show that (1) it outperforms existing end-to-end deep RL methods and (2) uncertainty quantification improves robustness of PBP against visual corruption.

Marnix Suilen, Thom Badings, Eline M. Bovy et al.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a standard model for sequential decision-making problems and are widely used across many scientific areas, including formal methods and artificial intelligence (AI). MDPs do, however, come with the restrictive assumption that the transition probabilities need to be precisely known. Robust MDPs (RMDPs) overcome this assumption by instead defining the transition probabilities to belong to some uncertainty set. We present a gentle survey on RMDPs, providing a tutorial covering their fundamentals. In particular, we discuss RMDP semantics and how to solve them by extending standard MDP methods such as value iteration and policy iteration. We also discuss how RMDPs relate to other models and how they are used in several contexts, including reinforcement learning and abstraction techniques. We conclude with some challenges for future work on RMDPs.

Eline M. Bovy, Marnix Suilen, Sebastian Junges et al.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) rely on the key assumption that probability distributions are precisely known. Robust POMDPs (RPOMDPs) alleviate this concern by defining imprecise probabilities, referred to as uncertainty sets. While robust MDPs have been studied extensively, work on RPOMDPs is limited and primarily focuses on algorithmic solution methods. We expand the theoretical understanding of RPOMDPs by showing that 1) different assumptions on the uncertainty sets affect optimal policies and values; 2) RPOMDPs have a partially observable stochastic game (POSG) semantic; and 3) the same RPOMDP with different assumptions leads to semantically different POSGs and, thus, different policies and values. These novel semantics for RPOMDPs give access to results for POSGs, studied in game theory; concretely, we show the existence of a Nash equilibrium. Finally, we classify the existing RPOMDP literature using our semantics, clarifying under which uncertainty assumptions these existing works operate.

Maris F. L. Galesloot, Thiago D. Simão, Sebastian Junges et al.

In centralized multi-agent systems, often modeled as multi-agent partially observable Markov decision processes (MPOMDPs), the action and observation spaces grow exponentially with the number of agents, making the value and belief estimation of single-agent online planning ineffective. Prior work partially tackles value estimation by exploiting the inherent structure of multi-agent settings via so-called coordination graphs. Additionally, belief estimation methods have been improved by incorporating the likelihood of observations into the approximation. However, the challenges of value estimation and belief estimation have only been tackled individually, which prevents existing methods from scaling to settings with many agents. Therefore, we address these challenges simultaneously. First, we introduce weighted particle filtering to a sample-based online planner for MPOMDPs. Second, we present a scalable approximation of the belief. Third, we bring an approach that exploits the typical locality of agent interactions to novel online planning algorithms for MPOMDPs operating on a so-called sparse particle filter tree. Our experimental evaluation against several state-of-the-art baselines shows that our methods (1) are competitive in settings with only a few agents and (2) improve over the baselines in the presence of many agents.

Merlijn Krale, Thiago D. Simão, Jana Tumova et al.

Partial observability and uncertainty are common problems in sequential decision-making that particularly impede the use of formal models such as Markov decision processes (MDPs). However, in practice, agents may be able to employ costly sensors to measure their environment and resolve partial observability by gathering information. Moreover, imprecise transition functions can capture model uncertainty. We combine these concepts and extend MDPs to robust active-measuring MDPs (RAM-MDPs). We present an active-measure heuristic to solve RAM-MDPs efficiently and show that model uncertainty can, counterintuitively, let agents take fewer measurements. We propose a method to counteract this behavior while only incurring a bounded additional cost. We empirically compare our methods to several baselines and show their superior scalability and performance.

Maris F. L. Galesloot, Roman Andriushchenko, Milan Češka et al.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) model specific environments in sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Critically, optimal policies for POMDPs may not be robust against perturbations in the environment. Hidden-model POMDPs (HM-POMDPs) capture sets of different environment models, that is, POMDPs with a shared action and observation space. The intuition is that the true model is hidden among a set of potential models, and it is unknown which model will be the environment at execution time. A policy is robust for a given HM-POMDP if it achieves sufficient performance for each of its POMDPs. We compute such robust policies by combining two orthogonal techniques: (1) a deductive formal verification technique that supports tractable robust policy evaluation by computing a worst-case POMDP within the HM-POMDP, and (2) subgradient ascent to optimize the candidate policy for a worst-case POMDP. The empirical evaluation shows that, compared to various baselines, our approach (1) produces policies that are more robust and generalize better to unseen POMDPs, and (2) scales to HM-POMDPs that consist of over a hundred thousand environments.

Eline M. Bovy, Caleb Probine, Marnix Suilen et al.

Multi-environment POMDPs (ME-POMDPs) extend standard POMDPs with discrete model uncertainty. ME-POMDPs represent a finite set of POMDPs that share the same state, action, and observation spaces, but may arbitrarily vary in their transition, observation, and reward models. Such models arise, for instance, when multiple domain experts disagree on how to model a problem. The goal is to find a single policy that is robust against any choice of POMDP within the set, i.e., a policy that maximizes the worst-case reward across all POMDPs. We generalize and expand on existing work in the following way. First, we show that ME-POMDPs can be generalized to POMDPs with sets of initial beliefs, which we call adversarial-belief POMDPs (AB-POMDPs). Second, we show that any arbitrary ME-POMDP can be reduced to a ME-POMDP that only varies in its transition and reward functions or only in its observation and reward functions, while preserving (optimal) policies. We then devise exact and approximate (point-based) algorithms to compute robust policies for AB-POMDPs, and thus ME-POMDPs. We demonstrate that we can compute policies for standard POMDP benchmarks extended to the multi-environment setting.

Natalie Grabowsky, Annika Mütze, Joshua Wendland et al.

Agents in real-world scenarios like automated driving deal with uncertainty in their environment, in particular due to perceptual uncertainty. Although, reinforcement learning is dedicated to autonomous decision-making under uncertainty these algorithms are typically not informed about the uncertainty currently contained in their environment. On the other hand, uncertainty estimation for perception itself is typically directly evaluated in the perception domain, e.g., in terms of false positive detection rates or calibration errors based on camera images. Its use for deciding on goal-oriented actions remains largely unstudied. In this paper, we investigate how an agent's behavior is influenced by an uncertain perception and how this behavior changes if information about this uncertainty is available. Therefore, we consider a proxy task, where the agent is rewarded for driving a route as fast as possible without colliding with other road users. For controlled experiments, we introduce uncertainty in the observation space by perturbing the perception of the given agent while informing the latter. Our experiments show that an unreliable observation space modeled by a perturbed perception leads to a defensive driving behavior of the agent. Furthermore, when adding the information about the current uncertainty directly to the observation space, the agent adapts to the specific situation and in general accomplishes its task faster while, at the same time, accounting for risks.

Merlijn Krale, Wietze Koops, Sebastian Junges et al.

Solving partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) typically requires reasoning about the values of exponentially many state beliefs. Towards practical performance, state-of-the-art solvers use value bounds to guide this reasoning. However, sound upper value bounds are often computationally expensive to compute, and there is a tradeoff between the tightness of such bounds and their computational cost. This paper introduces new and provably tighter upper value bounds than the commonly used fast informed bound. Our empirical evaluation shows that, despite their additional computational overhead, the new upper bounds accelerate state-of-the-art POMDP solvers on a wide range of benchmarks.

Thom Badings, Wietze Koops, Sebastian Junges et al.

We consider the verification of neural network policies for discrete-time stochastic systems with respect to reach-avoid specifications. We use a learner-verifier procedure that learns a certificate for the specification, represented as a neural network. Verifying that this neural network certificate is a so-called reach-avoid supermartingale (RASM) proves the satisfaction of a reach-avoid specification. Existing approaches for such a verification task rely on computed Lipschitz constants of neural networks. These approaches struggle with large Lipschitz constants, especially for reach-avoid specifications with high threshold probabilities. We present two key contributions to obtain smaller Lipschitz constants than existing approaches. First, we introduce logarithmic RASMs (logRASMs), which take exponentially smaller values than RASMs and hence have lower theoretical Lipschitz constants. Second, we present a fast method to compute tighter upper bounds on Lipschitz constants based on weighted norms. Our empirical evaluation shows we can consistently verify the satisfaction of reach-avoid specifications with probabilities as high as 99.9999%.

Wietze Koops, Sebastian Junges, Nils Jansen

We present an A*-based algorithm to compute policies for finite-horizon Dec-POMDPs. Our goal is to sacrifice optimality in favor of scalability for larger horizons. The main ingredients of our approach are (1) using clustered sliding window memory, (2) pruning the A* search tree, and (3) using novel A* heuristics. Our experiments show competitive performance to the state-of-the-art. Moreover, for multiple benchmarks, we achieve superior performance. In addition, we provide an A* algorithm that finds upper bounds for the optimum, tailored towards problems with long horizons. The main ingredient is a new heuristic that periodically reveals the state, thereby limiting the number of reachable beliefs. Our experiments demonstrate the efficacy and scalability of the approach.

Patrick Wienhöft, Marnix Suilen, Thiago D. Simão et al.

In an offline reinforcement learning setting, the safe policy improvement (SPI) problem aims to improve the performance of a behavior policy according to which sample data has been generated. State-of-the-art approaches to SPI require a high number of samples to provide practical probabilistic guarantees on the improved policy's performance. We present a novel approach to the SPI problem that provides the means to require less data for such guarantees. Specifically, to prove the correctness of these guarantees, we devise implicit transformations on the data set and the underlying environment model that serve as theoretical foundations to derive tighter improvement bounds for SPI. Our empirical evaluation, using the well-established SPI with baseline bootstrapping (SPIBB) algorithm, on standard benchmarks shows that our method indeed significantly reduces the sample complexity of the SPIBB algorithm.

Thom Badings, Sebastian Junges, Ahmadreza Marandi et al.

We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are available. We measure sensitivity in terms of partial derivatives with respect to the uncertain transition probabilities regarding measures such as the expected reward. As our main contribution, we present an efficient method to compute these partial derivatives. To scale our approach to models with thousands of parameters, we present an extension of this method that selects the subset of $k$ parameters with the highest partial derivative. Our methods are based on linear programming and differentiating these programs around a given value for the parameters. The experiments show the applicability of our approach on models with over a million states and thousands of parameters. Moreover, we embed the results within an iterative learning scheme that profits from having access to a dedicated sensitivity analysis.

Thom S. Badings, Alessandro Abate, Nils Jansen et al.

Controllers for autonomous systems that operate in safety-critical settings must account for stochastic disturbances. Such disturbances are often modelled as process noise, and common assumptions are that the underlying distributions are known and/or Gaussian. In practice, however, these assumptions may be unrealistic and can lead to poor approximations of the true noise distribution. We present a novel planning method that does not rely on any explicit representation of the noise distributions. In particular, we address the problem of computing a controller that provides probabilistic guarantees on safely reaching a target. First, we abstract the continuous system into a discrete-state model that captures noise by probabilistic transitions between states. As a key contribution, we adapt tools from the scenario approach to compute probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds on these transition probabilities, based on a finite number of samples of the noise. We capture these bounds in the transition probability intervals of a so-called interval Markov decision process (iMDP). This iMDP is robust against uncertainty in the transition probabilities, and the tightness of the probability intervals can be controlled through the number of samples. We use state-of-the-art verification techniques to provide guarantees on the iMDP, and compute a controller for which these guarantees carry over to the autonomous system. Realistic benchmarks show the practical applicability of our method, even when the iMDP has millions of states or transitions.

Murat Cubuktepe, Nils Jansen, Sebastian Junges et al.

Probabilistic model checking aims to prove whether a Markov decision process (MDP) satisfies a temporal logic specification. The underlying methods rely on an often unrealistic assumption that the MDP is precisely known. Consequently, parametric MDPs (pMDPs) extend MDPs with transition probabilities that are functions over unspecified parameters. The parameter synthesis problem is to compute an instantiation of these unspecified parameters such that the resulting MDP satisfies the temporal logic specification. We formulate the parameter synthesis problem as a quadratically constrained quadratic program (QCQP), which is nonconvex and is NP-hard to solve in general. We develop two approaches that iteratively obtain locally optimal solutions. The first approach exploits the so-called convex-concave procedure (CCP), and the second approach utilizes a sequential convex programming (SCP) method. The techniques improve the runtime and scalability by multiple orders of magnitude compared to black-box CCP and SCP by merging ideas from convex optimization and probabilistic model checking. We demonstrate the approaches on a satellite collision avoidance problem with hundreds of thousands of states and tens of thousands of parameters and their scalability on a wide range of commonly used benchmarks.

Thom Badings, Hasan A. Poonawala, Marielle Stoelinga et al.

We study feedback controller synthesis for reach-avoid control of discrete-time, linear time-invariant (LTI) systems with Gaussian process and measurement noise. The problem is to compute a controller such that, with at least some required probability, the system reaches a desired goal state in finite time while avoiding unsafe states. Due to stochasticity and nonconvexity, this problem does not admit exact algorithmic or closed-form solutions in general. Our key contribution is a correct-by-construction controller synthesis scheme based on a finite-state abstraction of a Gaussian belief over the unmeasured state, obtained using a Kalman filter. We formalize this abstraction as a Markov decision process (MDP). To be robust against numerical imprecision in approximating transition probabilities, we use MDPs with intervals of transition probabilities. By construction, any policy on the abstraction can be refined into a piecewise linear feedback controller for the LTI system. We prove that the closed-loop LTI system under this controller satisfies the reach-avoid problem with at least the required probability. The numerical experiments show that our method is able to solve reach-avoid problems for systems with up to 6D state spaces, and with control input constraints that cannot be handled by methods such as the rapidly-exploring random belief trees (RRBT).

Zaharah A. Bukhsh, Nils Jansen, Aaqib Saeed

We investigate the capabilities of transfer learning in the area of structural health monitoring. In particular, we are interested in damage detection for concrete structures. Typical image datasets for such problems are relatively small, calling for the transfer of learned representation from a related large-scale dataset. Past efforts of damage detection using images have mainly considered cross-domain transfer learning approaches using pre-trained IMAGENET models that are subsequently fine-tuned for the target task. However, there are rising concerns about the generalizability of IMAGENET representations for specific target domains, such as for visual inspection and medical imaging. We, therefore, evaluate a combination of in-domain and cross-domain transfer learning strategies for damage detection in bridges. We perform comprehensive comparisons to study the impact of cross-domain and in-domain transfer, with various initialization strategies, using six publicly available visual inspection datasets. The pre-trained models are also evaluated for their ability to cope with the extremely low-data regime. We show that the combination of cross-domain and in-domain transfer persistently shows superior performance specially with tiny datasets. Likewise, we also provide visual explanations of predictive models to enable algorithmic transparency and provide insights to experts about the intrinsic decision logic of typically black-box deep models.

Murat Cubuktepe, Nils Jansen, Sebastian Junges et al.

Uncertain partially observable Markov decision processes (uPOMDPs) allow the probabilistic transition and observation functions of standard POMDPs to belong to a so-called uncertainty set. Such uncertainty, referred to as epistemic uncertainty, captures uncountable sets of probability distributions caused by, for instance, a lack of data available. We develop an algorithm to compute finite-memory policies for uPOMDPs that robustly satisfy specifications against any admissible distribution. In general, computing such policies is theoretically and practically intractable. We provide an efficient solution to this problem in four steps. (1) We state the underlying problem as a nonconvex optimization problem with infinitely many constraints. (2) A dedicated dualization scheme yields a dual problem that is still nonconvex but has finitely many constraints. (3) We linearize this dual problem and (4) solve the resulting finite linear program to obtain locally optimal solutions to the original problem. The resulting problem formulation is exponentially smaller than those resulting from existing methods. We demonstrate the applicability of our algorithm using large instances of an aircraft collision-avoidance scenario and a novel spacecraft motion planning case study.

Ajaya Adhikari, Richard den Hollander, Ioannis Tolios et al.

Detection of military assets on the ground can be performed by applying deep learning-based object detectors on drone surveillance footage. The traditional way of hiding military assets from sight is camouflage, for example by using camouflage nets. However, large assets like planes or vessels are difficult to conceal by means of traditional camouflage nets. An alternative type of camouflage is the direct misleading of automatic object detectors. Recently, it has been observed that small adversarial changes applied to images of the object can produce erroneous output by deep learning-based detectors. In particular, adversarial attacks have been successfully demonstrated to prohibit person detections in images, requiring a patch with a specific pattern held up in front of the person, thereby essentially camouflaging the person for the detector. Research into this type of patch attacks is still limited and several questions related to the optimal patch configuration remain open. This work makes two contributions. First, we apply patch-based adversarial attacks for the use case of unmanned aerial surveillance, where the patch is laid on top of large military assets, camouflaging them from automatic detectors running over the imagery. The patch can prevent automatic detection of the whole object while only covering a small part of it. Second, we perform several experiments with different patch configurations, varying their size, position, number and saliency. Our results show that adversarial patch attacks form a realistic alternative to traditional camouflage activities, and should therefore be considered in the automated analysis of aerial surveillance imagery.

Leonore Winterer, Ralf Wimmer, Nils Jansen et al.

The synthesis problem for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) is to compute a policy that satisfies a given specification. Such policies have to take the full execution history of a POMDP into account, rendering the problem undecidable in general. A common approach is to use a limited amount of memory and randomize over potential choices. Yet, this problem is still NP-hard and often computationally intractable in practice. A restricted problem is to use neither history nor randomization, yielding policies that are called stationary and deterministic. Previous approaches to compute such policies employ mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). We provide a novel MILP encoding that supports sophisticated specifications in the form of temporal logic constraints. It is able to handle an arbitrary number of such specifications. Yet, randomization and memory are often mandatory to achieve satisfactory policies. First, we extend our encoding to deliver a restricted class of randomized policies. Second, based on the results of the original MILP, we employ a preprocessing of the POMDP to encompass memory-based decisions. The advantages of our approach over state-of-the-art POMDP solvers lie (1) in the flexibility to strengthen simple deterministic policies without losing computational tractability and (2) in the ability to enforce the provable satisfaction of arbitrarily many specifications. The latter point allows taking trade-offs between performance and safety aspects of typical POMDP examples into account. We show the effectiveness of our method on a broad range of benchmarks.

Sebastian Junges, Nils Jansen, Sanjit A. Seshia

Partially-Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are a well-known stochastic model for sequential decision making under limited information. We consider the EXPTIME-hard problem of synthesising policies that almost-surely reach some goal state without ever visiting a bad state. In particular, we are interested in computing the winning region, that is, the set of system configurations from which a policy exists that satisfies the reachability specification. A direct application of such a winning region is the safe exploration of POMDPs by, for instance, restricting the behavior of a reinforcement learning agent to the region. We present two algorithms: A novel SAT-based iterative approach and a decision-diagram based alternative. The empirical evaluation demonstrates the feasibility and efficacy of the approaches.

Hadas Kress-Gazit, Kerstin Eder, Guy Hoffman et al.

Robot capabilities are maturing across domains, from self-driving cars, to bipeds and drones. As a result, robots will soon no longer be confined to safety-controlled industrial settings; instead, they will directly interact with the general public. The growing field of Human-Robot Interaction (HRI) studies various aspects of this scenario - from social norms to joint action to human-robot teams and more. Researchers in HRI have made great strides in developing models, methods, and algorithms for robots acting with and around humans, but these "computational HRI" models and algorithms generally do not come with formal guarantees and constraints on their operation. To enable human-interactive robots to move from the lab to real-world deployments, we must address this gap. This article provides an overview of verification, validation and synthesis techniques used to create demonstrably trustworthy systems, describes several HRI domains that could benefit from such techniques, and provides a roadmap for the challenges and the research needed to create formalized and guaranteed human-robot interaction.

Dennis Gross, Nils Jansen, Guillermo A. Pérez et al.

We give a formal verification procedure that decides whether a classifier ensemble is robust against arbitrary randomized attacks. Such attacks consist of a set of deterministic attacks and a distribution over this set. The robustness-checking problem consists of assessing, given a set of classifiers and a labelled data set, whether there exists a randomized attack that induces a certain expected loss against all classifiers. We show the NP-hardness of the problem and provide an upper bound on the number of attacks that is sufficient to form an optimal randomized attack. These results provide an effective way to reason about the robustness of a classifier ensemble. We provide SMT and MILP encodings to compute optimal randomized attacks or prove that there is no attack inducing a certain expected loss. In the latter case, the classifier ensemble is provably robust. Our prototype implementation verifies multiple neural-network ensembles trained for image-classification tasks. The experimental results using the MILP encoding are promising both in terms of scalability and the general applicability of our verification procedure.

Steven Carr, Nils Jansen, Ufuk Topcu

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have emerged as an effective representation of control policies in sequential decision-making problems. However, a major drawback in the application of RNN-based policies is the difficulty in providing formal guarantees on the satisfaction of behavioral specifications, e.g. safety and/or reachability. By integrating techniques from formal methods and machine learning, we propose an approach to automatically extract a finite-state controller (FSC) from an RNN, which, when composed with a finite-state system model, is amenable to existing formal verification tools. Specifically, we introduce an iterative modification to the so-called quantized bottleneck insertion technique to create an FSC as a randomized policy with memory. For the cases in which the resulting FSC fails to satisfy the specification, verification generates diagnostic information. We utilize this information to either adjust the amount of memory in the extracted FSC or perform focused retraining of the RNN. While generally applicable, we detail the resulting iterative procedure in the context of policy synthesis for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), which is known to be notoriously hard. The numerical experiments show that the proposed approach outperforms traditional POMDP synthesis methods by 3 orders of magnitude within 2% of optimal benchmark values.

Dung T. Phan, Radu Grosu, Nils Jansen et al.

We present the Neural Simplex Architecture (NSA), a new approach to runtime assurance that provides safety guarantees for neural controllers (obtained e.g. using reinforcement learning) of autonomous and other complex systems without unduly sacrificing performance. NSA is inspired by the Simplex control architecture of Sha et al., but with some significant differences. In the traditional approach, the advanced controller (AC) is treated as a black box; when the decision module switches control to the baseline controller (BC), the BC remains in control forever. There is relatively little work on switching control back to the AC, and there are no techniques for correcting the AC's behavior after it generates a potentially unsafe control input that causes a failover to the BC. Our NSA addresses both of these limitations. NSA not only provides safety assurances in the presence of a possibly unsafe neural controller, but can also improve the safety of such a controller in an online setting via retraining, without overly degrading its performance. To demonstrate NSA's benefits, we have conducted several significant case studies in the continuous control domain. These include a target-seeking ground rover navigating an obstacle field, and a neural controller for an artificial pancreas system.

Murat Cubuktepe, Nils Jansen, Mohammed Alsiekh et al.

We synthesize shared control protocols subject to probabilistic temporal logic specifications. More specifically, we develop a framework in which a human and an autonomy protocol can issue commands to carry out a certain task. We blend these commands into a joint input to a robot. We model the interaction between the human and the robot as a Markov decision process (MDP) that represents the shared control scenario. Using inverse reinforcement learning, we obtain an abstraction of the human's behavior and decisions. We use randomized strategies to account for randomness in human's decisions, caused by factors such as complexity of the task specifications or imperfect interfaces. We design the autonomy protocol to ensure that the resulting robot behavior satisfies given safety and performance specifications in probabilistic temporal logic. Additionally, the resulting strategies generate behavior as similar to the behavior induced by the human's commands as possible. We solve the underlying problem efficiently using quasiconvex programming. Case studies involving autonomous wheelchair navigation and unmanned aerial vehicle mission planning showcase the applicability of our approach.

Steven Carr, Nils Jansen, Ralf Wimmer et al.

We study strategy synthesis for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). The particular problem is to determine strategies that provably adhere to (probabilistic) temporal logic constraints. This problem is computationally intractable and theoretically hard. We propose a novel method that combines techniques from machine learning and formal verification. First, we train a recurrent neural network (RNN) to encode POMDP strategies. The RNN accounts for memory-based decisions without the need to expand the full belief space of a POMDP. Secondly, we restrict the RNN-based strategy to represent a finite-memory strategy and implement it on a specific POMDP. For the resulting finite Markov chain, efficient formal verification techniques provide provable guarantees against temporal logic specifications. If the specification is not satisfied, counterexamples supply diagnostic information. We use this information to improve the strategy by iteratively training the RNN. Numerical experiments show that the proposed method elevates the state of the art in POMDP solving by up to three orders of magnitude in terms of solving times and model sizes.

Mohamadreza Ahmadi, Nils Jansen, Bo Wu et al.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a modeling framework for a variety of sequential decision making under uncertainty scenarios in artificial intelligence (AI). Since the states are not directly observable in a POMDP, decision making has to be performed based on the output of a Bayesian filter (continuous beliefs). Hence, POMDPs are often computationally intractable to solve exactly and researchers resort to approximate methods often using discretizations of the continuous belief space. These approximate solutions are, however, prone to discretization errors, which has made POMDPs ineffective in applications, wherein guarantees for safety, optimality, or performance are required. To overcome the complexity challenge of POMDPs, we apply notions from control theory. The goal is to determine the reachable belief space of a POMDP, that is, the set of all possible evolutions given an initial belief distribution over the states and a set of actions and observations. We begin by casting the problem of analyzing a POMDP into analyzing the behavior of a discrete-time switched system. For estimating the reachable belief space, we find over-approximations in terms of sub-level sets of Lyapunov functions. Furthermore, in order to verify safety and optimality requirements of a given POMDP, we formulate a barrier certificate theorem, wherein we show that if there exists a barrier certificate satisfying a set of inequalities along with the belief update equation of the POMDP, the safety and optimality properties are guaranteed to hold. In both cases, we show how the calculations can be decomposed into smaller problems that can be solved in parallel. The conditions we formulate can be computationally implemented as a set of sum-of-squares programs. We illustrate the applicability of our method by addressing two problems in active ad scheduling and machine teaching.

Milan Ceska, Nils Jansen, Sebastian Junges et al.

This paper considers large families of Markov chains (MCs) that are defined over a set of parameters with finite discrete domains. Such families occur in software product lines, planning under partial observability, and sketching of probabilistic programs. Simple questions, like `does at least one family member satisfy a property?', are NP-hard. We tackle two problems: distinguish family members that satisfy a given quantitative property from those that do not, and determine a family member that satisfies the property optimally, i.e., with the highest probability or reward. We show that combining two well-known techniques, MDP model checking and abstraction refinement, mitigates the computational complexity. Experiments on a broad set of benchmarks show that in many situations, our approach is able to handle families of millions of MCs, providing superior scalability compared to existing solutions.