Eden Saig

Bana Sadi, Eden Saig, Nir Rosenfeld

Prediction algorithms are increasingly used to inform decisions about humans, but maximizing accuracy$\rule[0.25em]{1em}{0.4pt}$the standard learning objective$\rule[0.25em]{1em}{0.4pt}$does not necessarily maximize user benefits. Instead, we propose optimizing social welfare, defined as the average gain users receive from correct predictions. Welfare enables to express, and therefore account for, heterogeneity in how much users benefit from accuracy. But since these valuations are private and users can gain from overreporting them, learning must simultaneously elicit truthful values and optimize welfare with respect to them. To this end, we propose a novel learning algorithm that incorporates a truthful auction. We show how to compute allocations and prices efficiently, and bound the number of paying users$\rule[0.25em]{1em}{0.4pt}$ which surprisingly is independent of the sample size. We conclude with experiments on real and synthetic data that demonstrate our algorithm and explore the connections between welfare and accuracy.

Eden Saig, Inbal Talgam-Cohen, Nir Rosenfeld

When machine learning is outsourced to a rational agent, conflicts of interest might arise and severely impact predictive performance. In this work, we propose a theoretical framework for incentive-aware delegation of machine learning tasks. We model delegation as a principal-agent game, in which accurate learning can be incentivized by the principal using performance-based contracts. Adapting the economic theory of contract design to this setting, we define budget-optimal contracts and prove they take a simple threshold form under reasonable assumptions. In the binary-action case, the optimality of such contracts is shown to be equivalent to the classic Neyman-Pearson lemma, establishing a formal connection between contract design and statistical hypothesis testing. Empirically, we demonstrate that budget-optimal contracts can be constructed using small-scale data, leveraging recent advances in the study of learning curves and scaling laws. Performance and economic outcomes are evaluated using synthetic and real-world classification tasks.

Eden Saig, Nir Rosenfeld

Optimizing user engagement is a key goal for modern recommendation systems, but blindly pushing users towards increased consumption risks burn-out, churn, or even addictive habits. To promote digital well-being, most platforms now offer a service that periodically prompts users to take breaks. These, however, must be set up manually, and so may be suboptimal for both users and the system. In this paper, we study the role of breaks in recommendation, and propose a framework for learning optimal breaking policies that promote and sustain long-term engagement. Based on the notion that recommendation dynamics are susceptible to both positive and negative feedback, we cast recommendation as a Lotka-Volterra dynamical system, where breaking reduces to a problem of optimal control. We then give an efficient learning algorithm, provide theoretical guarantees, and empirically demonstrate the utility of our approach on semi-synthetic data.

Eden Saig, Tamar Garbuz, Ariel D. Procaccia et al.

When organizations delegate text generation tasks to AI providers via pay-for-performance contracts, expected payments rise when evaluation is noisy. As evaluation methods become more elaborate, the economic benefits of decreased noise are often overshadowed by increased evaluation costs. In this work, we introduce adaptive contracts for AI delegation, which allow detailed evaluation to be performed selectively after observing an initial coarse signal in order to conserve resources. We make three sets of contributions: First, we provide efficient algorithms for computing optimal adaptive contracts under natural assumptions or when core problem dimensions are small, and prove hardness of approximation in the general unstructured case. We then formulate alternative models of randomized adaptive contracts and discuss their benefits and limitations. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the benefits of adaptivity over non-adaptive baselines using question-answering and code-generation datasets.

Eden Saig, Nir Rosenfeld

When a prediction algorithm serves a collection of users, disparities in prediction quality are likely to emerge. If users respond to accurate predictions by increasing engagement, inviting friends, or adopting trends, repeated learning creates a feedback loop that shapes both the model and the population of its users. In this work, we introduce evolutionary prediction games, a framework grounded in evolutionary game theory which models such feedback loops as natural-selection processes among groups of users. Our theoretical analysis reveals a gap between idealized and real-world learning settings: In idealized settings with unlimited data and computational power, repeated learning creates competition and promotes competitive exclusion across a broad class of behavioral dynamics. However, under realistic constraints such as finite data, limited compute, or risk of overfitting, we show that stable coexistence and mutualistic symbiosis between groups becomes possible. We analyze these possibilities in terms of their stability and feasibility, present mechanisms that can sustain their existence, and empirically demonstrate our findings.

Eden Saig, Ohad Einav, Inbal Talgam-Cohen

While the success of large language models (LLMs) increases demand for machine-generated text, current pay-per-token pricing schemes create a misalignment of incentives known in economics as moral hazard: Text-generating agents have strong incentive to cut costs by preferring a cheaper model over the cutting-edge one, and this can be done "behind the scenes" since the agent performs inference internally. In this work, we approach this issue from an economic perspective, by proposing a pay-for-performance, contract-based framework for incentivizing quality. We study a principal-agent game where the agent generates text using costly inference, and the contract determines the principal's payment for the text according to an automated quality evaluation. Since standard contract theory is inapplicable when internal inference costs are unknown, we introduce cost-robust contracts. As our main theoretical contribution, we characterize optimal cost-robust contracts through a direct correspondence to optimal composite hypothesis tests from statistics, generalizing a result of Saig et al. (NeurIPS'23). We evaluate our framework empirically by deriving contracts for a range of objectives and LLM evaluation benchmarks, and find that cost-robust contracts sacrifice only a marginal increase in objective value compared to their cost-aware counterparts.