Wasim Ahmad

Wasim Ahmad, Maha Shadaydeh, Joachim Denzler

Cause-effect analysis is crucial to understand the underlying mechanism of a system. We propose to exploit model invariance through interventions on the predictors to infer causality in nonlinear multivariate systems of time series. We model nonlinear interactions in time series using DeepAR and then expose the model to different environments using Knockoffs-based interventions to test model invariance. Knockoff samples are pairwise exchangeable, in-distribution and statistically null variables generated without knowing the response. We test model invariance where we show that the distribution of the response residual does not change significantly upon interventions on non-causal predictors. We evaluate our method on real and synthetically generated time series. Overall our method outperforms other widely used causality methods, i.e, VAR Granger causality, VARLiNGAM and PCMCI+.

Wasim Ahmad, Yan-Tsung Peng, Yuan-Hao Chang et al.

Deep-fake videos, generated through AI face-swapping techniques, have gained significant attention due to their potential for impactful impersonation attacks. While most research focuses on real vs. fake detection, attributing a deep-fake to its specific generation model or encoder is vital for forensic analysis, enabling source tracing and tailored countermeasures. This enhances detection by leveraging model-specific artifacts and supports proactive defenses. We investigate the model attribution problem for deep-fake videos using two datasets: Deepfakes from Different Models (DFDM) and GANGen-Detection, both comprising deep-fake videos and GAN-generated images. We use only fake images from GANGen-Detection to align with DFDM's focus on attribution rather than binary classification. We formulate the task as a multiclass classification problem and introduce a novel Capsule-Spatial-Temporal (CapST) model that integrates a truncated VGG19 network for feature extraction, capsule networks for hierarchical encoding, and a spatio-temporal attention mechanism. Video-level fusion captures temporal dependencies across frames. Experiments on DFDM and GANGen-Detection show CapST outperforms baseline models in attribution accuracy while reducing computational cost.

Wasim Ahmad, Maha Shadaydeh, Joachim Denzler

Causal inference in a nonlinear system of multivariate timeseries is instrumental in disentangling the intricate web of relationships among variables, enabling us to make more accurate predictions and gain deeper insights into real-world complex systems. Causality methods typically identify the causal structure of a multivariate system by considering the cause-effect relationship of each pair of variables while ignoring the collective effect of a group of variables or interactions involving more than two-time series variables. In this work, we test model invariance by group-level interventions on the trained deep networks to infer causal direction in groups of variables, such as climate and ecosystem, brain networks, etc. Extensive testing with synthetic and real-world time series data shows a significant improvement of our method over other applied group causality methods and provides us insights into real-world time series. The code for our method can be found at:https://github.com/wasimahmadpk/gCause.

Wasim Ahmad, Wei Zhang, Xuerui Mao

Audio-visual deepfakes have reached a level of realism that makes perceptual detection unreliable, threatening media integrity and biometric security. While multimodal detection has shown promise, most approaches are binary classification tasks that often latch onto dataset-specific artifacts rather than genuine generative traces. We argue that a detector incapable of identifying how a video was forged is likely learning the wrong signal. Unlike binary detection, attribution-guided learning imposes a stronger geometric constraint on the shared embedding space, forcing the model to encode generator-specific forensic content rather than shortcuts. We propose the Attribution-Guided Multimodal Deepfake Detection (AMDD) framework, which jointly learns to detect and attribute manipulation. AMDD treats generator attribution as a structured regularization that constrains representation geometry toward forensically meaningful features. We introduce a Cross-Modal Forensic Fingerprint Consistency (CMFFC) loss to enforce alignment between generator-induced artifacts in visual and audio streams. This exploits the fact that coherent manipulation leaves correlated traces across modalities, grounded in the physical coupling between speech and facial articulation that synthetic pipelines routinely disrupt. Architecturally, we pair a ResNet50 with temporal attention for visual encoding against a pretrained ResNet18 for mel spectrograms, closing the encoder capacity gap found in prior models. On FakeAVCeleb, AMDD achieves 99.7% balanced accuracy and 99.8% AUC with 95.9% attribution accuracy. Cross-dataset evaluation on DeepfakeTIMIT, DFDM, and LAV-DF confirms that real video detection generalizes robustly, while fake detection on unseen generators remains an open challenge that we analyze in depth.

Wasim Ahmad, Yan-Tsung Peng, Yuan-Hao Chang

The widespread emergence of face-swap Deepfake videos poses growing risks to digital security, privacy, and media integrity, necessitating effective forensic tools for identifying the source of such manipulations. Although most prior research has focused primarily on binary Deepfake detection, the task of model attribution -- determining which generative model produced a given Deepfake -- remains underexplored. In this paper, we introduce FAME (Fake Attribution via Multilevel Embeddings), a lightweight and efficient spatio-temporal framework designed to capture subtle generative artifacts specific to different face-swap models. FAME integrates spatial and temporal attention mechanisms to improve attribution accuracy while remaining computationally efficient. We evaluate our model on three challenging and diverse datasets: Deepfake Detection and Manipulation (DFDM), FaceForensics++, and FakeAVCeleb. Results show that FAME consistently outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and runtime, highlighting its potential for deployment in real-world forensic and information security applications.

Wasim Ahmad, Joachim Denzler, Maha Shadaydeh

Causal discovery uncovers complex relationships between variables, enhancing predictions, decision-making, and insights into real-world systems, especially in nonlinear multivariate time series. However, most existing methods primarily focus on pairwise cause-effect relationships, overlooking interactions among groups of variables, i.e., subsystems and their collective causal influence. In this study, we introduce gCDMI, a novel multi-group causal discovery method that leverages group-level interventions on trained deep neural networks and employs model invariance testing to infer causal relationships. Our approach involves three key steps. First, we use deep learning to jointly model the structural relationships among groups of all time series. Second, we apply group-wise interventions to the trained model. Finally, we conduct model invariance testing to determine the presence of causal links among variable groups. We evaluate our method on simulated datasets, demonstrating its superior performance in identifying group-level causal relationships compared to existing methods. Additionally, we validate our approach on real-world datasets, including brain networks and climate ecosystems. Our results highlight that applying group-level interventions to deep learning models, combined with invariance testing, can effectively reveal complex causal structures, offering valuable insights for domains such as neuroscience and climate science.

Wasim Ahmad, Maha Shadaydeh, Joachim Denzler

Estimating causal relations is vital in understanding the complex interactions in multivariate time series. Non-linear coupling of variables is one of the major challenges inaccurate estimation of cause-effect relations. In this paper, we propose to use deep autoregressive networks (DeepAR) in tandem with counterfactual analysis to infer nonlinear causal relations in multivariate time series. We extend the concept of Granger causality using probabilistic forecasting with DeepAR. Since deep networks can neither handle missing input nor out-of-distribution intervention, we propose to use the Knockoffs framework (Barberand Cand`es, 2015) for generating intervention variables and consequently counterfactual probabilistic forecasting. Knockoff samples are independent of their output given the observed variables and exchangeable with their counterpart variables without changing the underlying distribution of the data. We test our method on synthetic as well as real-world time series datasets. Overall our method outperforms the widely used vector autoregressive Granger causality and PCMCI in detecting nonlinear causal dependency in multivariate time series.