Zhiyuan Zhao

Zhiyuan Zhao, Qingjie Liu, Yunhong Wang

Recently, few-shot object detection~(FSOD) has received much attention from the community, and many methods are proposed to address this problem from a knowledge transfer perspective. Though promising results have been achieved, these methods fail to achieve shot-stable:~methods that excel in low-shot regimes are likely to struggle in high-shot regimes, and vice versa. We believe this is because the primary challenge of FSOD changes when the number of shots varies. In the low-shot regime, the primary challenge is the lack of inner-class variation. In the high-shot regime, as the variance approaches the real one, the main hindrance to the performance comes from misalignment between learned and true distributions. However, these two distinct issues remain unsolved in most existing FSOD methods. In this paper, we propose to overcome these challenges by exploiting rich knowledge the model has learned and effectively transferring them to the novel classes. For the low-shot regime, we propose a distribution calibration method to deal with the lack of inner-class variation problem. Meanwhile, a shift compensation method is proposed to compensate for possible distribution shift during fine-tuning. For the high-shot regime, we propose to use the knowledge learned from ImageNet as guidance for the feature learning in the fine-tuning stage, which will implicitly align the distributions of the novel classes. Although targeted toward different regimes, these two strategies can work together to further improve the FSOD performance. Experiments on both the VOC and COCO benchmarks show that our proposed method can significantly outperform the baseline method and produce competitive results in both low-shot settings (shot<5) and high-shot settings (shot>=5). Code is available at https://github.com/JulioZhao97/EffTrans_Fsdet.git.

Bingyu Li, Da Zhang, Zhiyuan Zhao et al.

Multimodal semantic segmentation shows significant potential for enhancing segmentation accuracy in complex scenes. However, current methods often incorporate specialized feature fusion modules tailored to specific modalities, thereby restricting input flexibility and increasing the number of training parameters. To address these challenges, we propose StitchFusion, a straightforward yet effective modal fusion framework that integrates large-scale pre-trained models directly as encoders and feature fusers. This approach facilitates comprehensive multi-modal and multi-scale feature fusion, accommodating any visual modal inputs. Specifically, Our framework achieves modal integration during encoding by sharing multi-modal visual information. To enhance information exchange across modalities, we introduce a multi-directional adapter module (MultiAdapter) to enable cross-modal information transfer during encoding. By leveraging MultiAdapter to propagate multi-scale information across pre-trained encoders during the encoding process, StitchFusion achieves multi-modal visual information integration during encoding. Extensive comparative experiments demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on four multi-modal segmentation datasets with minimal additional parameters. Furthermore, the experimental integration of MultiAdapter with existing Feature Fusion Modules (FFMs) highlights their complementary nature. Our code is available at StitchFusion_repo.

Bingyu Li, Da Zhang, Zhiyuan Zhao et al.

Text has become the predominant form of communication on social media, embedding a wealth of emotional nuances. Consequently, the extraction of emotional information from text is of paramount importance. Despite previous research making some progress, existing text sentiment analysis models still face challenges in integrating diverse semantic information and lack interpretability. To address these issues, we propose a quantum-inspired deep learning architecture that combines fundamental principles of quantum mechanics (QM principles) with deep learning models for text sentiment analysis. Specifically, we analyze the commonalities between text representation and QM principles to design a quantum-inspired text representation method and further develop a quantum-inspired text embedding layer. Additionally, we design a feature extraction layer based on long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and self-attention mechanisms (SAMs). Finally, we calculate the text density matrix using the quantum complex numbers principle and apply 2D-convolution neural networks (CNNs) for feature condensation and dimensionality reduction. Through a series of visualization, comparative, and ablation experiments, we demonstrate that our model not only shows significant advantages in accuracy and efficiency compared to previous related models but also achieves a certain level of interpretability by integrating QM principles. Our code is available at QISA.

Da Zhang, Bingyu Li, Zhiyuan Zhao et al.

Time series analysis plays a vital role in fields such as finance, healthcare, industry, and meteorology, underpinning key tasks including classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection. Although deep learning models have achieved remarkable progress in these areas in recent years, constructing an efficient, multi-task compatible, and generalizable unified framework for time series analysis remains a significant challenge. Existing approaches are often tailored to single tasks or specific data types, making it difficult to simultaneously handle multi-task modeling and effectively integrate information across diverse time series types. Moreover, real-world data are often affected by noise, complex frequency components, and multi-scale dynamic patterns, which further complicate robust feature extraction and analysis. To ameliorate these challenges, we propose FusAD, a unified analysis framework designed for diverse time series tasks. FusAD features an adaptive time-frequency fusion mechanism, integrating both Fourier and Wavelet transforms to efficiently capture global-local and multi-scale dynamic features. With an adaptive denoising mechanism, FusAD automatically senses and filters various types of noise, highlighting crucial sequence variations and enabling robust feature extraction in complex environments. In addition, the framework integrates a general information fusion and decoding structure, combined with masked pre-training, to promote efficient learning and transfer of multi-granularity representations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FusAD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models on mainstream time series benchmarks for classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection tasks, while maintaining high efficiency and scalability. Code is available at https://github.com/zhangda1018/FusAD.

Shangqing Xu, Zhiyuan Zhao, Megha Sharma et al.

Severe heatwaves in urban areas significantly threaten public health, calling for establishing early warning strategies. Despite predicting occurrence of heatwaves and attributing historical mortality, predicting an incoming deadly heatwave remains a challenge due to the difficulty in defining and estimating heat-related mortality. Furthermore, establishing an early warning system imposes additional requirements, including data availability, spatial and temporal robustness, and decision costs. To address these challenges, we propose DeepTherm, a modular early warning system for deadly heatwave prediction without requiring heat-related mortality history. By highlighting the flexibility of deep learning, DeepTherm employs a dual-prediction pipeline, disentangling baseline mortality in the absence of heatwaves and other irregular events from all-cause mortality. We evaluated DeepTherm on real-world data across Spain. Results demonstrate consistent, robust, and accurate performance across diverse regions, time periods, and population groups while allowing trade-off between missed alarms and false alarms.

Zhiyuan Zhao, Haoxin Liu, Alexander Rodriguez et al.

Time-series forecasting is a critical challenge in various domains and has witnessed substantial progress in recent years. Many real-life scenarios, such as public health, economics, and social applications, involve feedback loops where predictions can influence the predicted outcome, subsequently altering the target variable's distribution. This phenomenon, known as performativity, introduces the potential for 'self-negating' or 'self-fulfilling' predictions. Despite extensive studies in classification problems across domains, performativity remains largely unexplored in the context of time-series forecasting from a machine-learning perspective. In this paper, we formalize performative time-series forecasting (PeTS), addressing the challenge of accurate predictions when performativity-induced distribution shifts are possible. We propose a novel approach, Feature Performative-Shifting (FPS), which leverages the concept of delayed response to anticipate distribution shifts and subsequently predicts targets accordingly. We provide theoretical insights suggesting that FPS can potentially lead to reduced generalization error. We conduct comprehensive experiments using multiple time-series models on COVID-19 and traffic forecasting tasks. The results demonstrate that FPS consistently outperforms conventional time-series forecasting methods, highlighting its efficacy in handling performativity-induced challenges.

Bingyu Li, Da Zhang, Zhiyuan Zhao et al.

Multimodal semantic segmentation is a pivotal component of computer vision and typically surpasses unimodal methods by utilizing rich information set from various sources.Current models frequently adopt modality-specific frameworks that inherently biases toward certain modalities. Although these biases might be advantageous in specific situations, they generally limit the adaptability of the models across different multimodal contexts, thereby potentially impairing performance. To address this issue, we leverage the inherent capabilities of the model itself to discover the optimal equilibrium in multimodal fusion and introduce U3M: An Unbiased Multiscale Modal Fusion Model for Multimodal Semantic Segmentation. Specifically, this method involves an unbiased integration of multimodal visual data. Additionally, we employ feature fusion at multiple scales to ensure the effective extraction and integration of both global and local features. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves superior performance across multiple datasets, verifing its efficacy in enhancing the robustness and versatility of semantic segmentation in diverse settings. Our code is available at U3M-multimodal-semantic-segmentation.

Bingyu Li, Haocheng Dong, Da Zhang et al.

Open-Vocabulary Remote Sensing Image Segmentation (OVRSIS), an emerging task that adapts Open-Vocabulary Segmentation (OVS) to the remote sensing (RS) domain, remains underexplored due to the absence of a unified evaluation benchmark and the domain gap between natural and RS images. To bridge these gaps, we first establish a standardized OVRSIS benchmark (\textbf{OVRSISBench}) based on widely-used RS segmentation datasets, enabling consistent evaluation across methods. Using this benchmark, we comprehensively evaluate several representative OVS/OVRSIS models and reveal their limitations when directly applied to remote sensing scenarios. Building on these insights, we propose \textbf{RSKT-Seg}, a novel open-vocabulary segmentation framework tailored for remote sensing. RSKT-Seg integrates three key components: (1) a Multi-Directional Cost Map Aggregation (RS-CMA) module that captures rotation-invariant visual cues by computing vision-language cosine similarities across multiple directions; (2) an Efficient Cost Map Fusion (RS-Fusion) transformer, which jointly models spatial and semantic dependencies with a lightweight dimensionality reduction strategy; and (3) a Remote Sensing Knowledge Transfer (RS-Transfer) module that injects pre-trained knowledge and facilitates domain adaptation via enhanced upsampling. Extensive experiments on the benchmark show that RSKT-Seg consistently outperforms strong OVS baselines by +3.8 mIoU and +5.9 mACC, while achieving 2x faster inference through efficient aggregation. Our code is \href{https://github.com/LiBingyu01/RSKT-Seg}{\textcolor{blue}{here}}.

Da Zhang, Chenggang Rong, Bingyu Li et al.

Large vision-language models (VLMs) have achieved remarkable success in natural scene understanding, yet their application to underwater environments remains largely unexplored. Underwater imagery presents unique challenges including severe light attenuation, color distortion, and suspended particle scattering, while requiring specialized knowledge of marine ecosystems and organism taxonomy. To bridge this gap, we introduce UWBench, a comprehensive benchmark specifically designed for underwater vision-language understanding. UWBench comprises 15,003 high-resolution underwater images captured across diverse aquatic environments, encompassing oceans, coral reefs, and deep-sea habitats. Each image is enriched with human-verified annotations including 15,281 object referring expressions that precisely describe marine organisms and underwater structures, and 124,983 question-answer pairs covering diverse reasoning capabilities from object recognition to ecological relationship understanding. The dataset captures rich variations in visibility, lighting conditions, and water turbidity, providing a realistic testbed for model evaluation. Based on UWBench, we establish three comprehensive benchmarks: detailed image captioning for generating ecologically informed scene descriptions, visual grounding for precise localization of marine organisms, and visual question answering for multimodal reasoning about underwater environments. Extensive experiments on state-of-the-art VLMs demonstrate that underwater understanding remains challenging, with substantial room for improvement. Our benchmark provides essential resources for advancing vision-language research in underwater contexts and supporting applications in marine science, ecological monitoring, and autonomous underwater exploration. Our code and benchmark will be available.

Wenjie Du, Jun Wang, Linglong Qian et al.

Effective imputation is a crucial preprocessing step for time series analysis. Despite the development of numerous deep learning algorithms for time series imputation, the community lacks standardized and comprehensive benchmark platforms to effectively evaluate imputation performance across different settings. Moreover, although many deep learning forecasting algorithms have demonstrated excellent performance, whether their modelling achievements can be transferred to time series imputation tasks remains unexplored. To bridge these gaps, we develop TSI-Bench, the first (to our knowledge) comprehensive benchmark suite for time series imputation utilizing deep learning techniques. The TSI-Bench pipeline standardizes experimental settings to enable fair evaluation of imputation algorithms and identification of meaningful insights into the influence of domain-appropriate missing rates and patterns on model performance. Furthermore, TSI-Bench innovatively provides a systematic paradigm to tailor time series forecasting algorithms for imputation purposes. Our extensive study across 34,804 experiments, 28 algorithms, and 8 datasets with diverse missingness scenarios demonstrates TSI-Bench's effectiveness in diverse downstream tasks and potential to unlock future directions in time series imputation research and analysis. All source code and experiment logs are released at https://github.com/WenjieDu/AwesomeImputation.

Haoxin Liu, Shangqing Xu, Zhiyuan Zhao et al.

Time series data are ubiquitous across a wide range of real-world domains. While real-world time series analysis (TSA) requires human experts to integrate numerical series data with multimodal domain-specific knowledge, most existing TSA models rely solely on numerical data, overlooking the significance of information beyond numerical series. This oversight is due to the untapped potential of textual series data and the absence of a comprehensive, high-quality multimodal dataset. To overcome this obstacle, we introduce Time-MMD, the first multi-domain, multimodal time series dataset covering 9 primary data domains. Time-MMD ensures fine-grained modality alignment, eliminates data contamination, and provides high usability. Additionally, we develop MM-TSFlib, the first-cut multimodal time-series forecasting (TSF) library, seamlessly pipelining multimodal TSF evaluations based on Time-MMD for in-depth analyses. Extensive experiments conducted on Time-MMD through MM-TSFlib demonstrate significant performance enhancements by extending unimodal TSF to multimodality, evidenced by over 15% mean squared error reduction in general, and up to 40% in domains with rich textual data. More importantly, our datasets and library revolutionize broader applications, impacts, research topics to advance TSA. The dataset is available at https://github.com/AdityaLab/Time-MMD.

Haoxin Liu, Zhiyuan Zhao, Jindong Wang et al.

Time-series forecasting (TSF) finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Prompting off-the-shelf Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrates strong zero-shot TSF capabilities while preserving computational efficiency. However, existing prompting methods oversimplify TSF as language next-token predictions, overlooking its dynamic nature and lack of integration with state-of-the-art prompt strategies such as Chain-of-Thought. Thus, we propose LSTPrompt, a novel approach for prompting LLMs in zero-shot TSF tasks. LSTPrompt decomposes TSF into short-term and long-term forecasting sub-tasks, tailoring prompts to each. LSTPrompt guides LLMs to regularly reassess forecasting mechanisms to enhance adaptability. Extensive evaluations demonstrate consistently better performance of LSTPrompt than existing prompting methods, and competitive results compared to foundation TSF models.

Zhiyu Lin, Zhengda Zhou, Zhiyuan Zhao et al.

With the rapid advancement of Generative AI technology, Multimodal Large Language Models(MLLMs) have the potential to act as AI software engineers capable of executing complex web application development. Considering that the model requires a confluence of multidimensional sub-capabilities to address the challenges of various development phases, constructing a multi-view evaluation framework is crucial for accurately guiding the enhancement of development efficiency. However, existing benchmarks usually fail to provide an assessment of sub-capabilities and focus solely on webpage generation outcomes. In this work, we draw inspiration from the principles of software engineering and further propose WebUIBench, a benchmark systematically designed to evaluate MLLMs in four key areas: WebUI Perception, HTML Programming,WebUI-HTML Understanding, and WebUI-to-Code. WebUIBench comprises 21K high-quality question-answer pairs derived from over 0.7K real-world websites. The extensive evaluation of 29 mainstream MLLMs uncovers the skill characteristics and various weakness that models encountered during the development process.

Bingyu Li, Da Zhang, Zhiyuan Zhao et al.

Open-vocabulary segmentation aims to identify and segment specific regions and objects based on text-based descriptions. A common solution is to leverage powerful vision-language models (VLMs), such as CLIP, to bridge the gap between vision and text information. However, VLMs are typically pretrained for image-level vision-text alignment, focusing on global semantic features. In contrast, segmentation tasks require fine-grained pixel-level alignment and detailed category boundary information, which VLMs alone cannot provide. As a result, information extracted directly from VLMs can't meet the requirements of segmentation tasks. To address this limitation, we propose FGAseg, a model designed for fine-grained pixel-text alignment and category boundary supplementation. The core of FGAseg is a Pixel-Level Alignment module that employs a cross-modal attention mechanism and a text-pixel alignment loss to refine the coarse-grained alignment from CLIP, achieving finer-grained pixel-text semantic alignment. Additionally, to enrich category boundary information, we introduce the alignment matrices as optimizable pseudo-masks during forward propagation and propose Category Information Supplementation module. These pseudo-masks, derived from cosine and convolutional similarity, provide essential global and local boundary information between different categories. By combining these two strategies, FGAseg effectively enhances pixel-level alignment and category boundary information, addressing key challenges in open-vocabulary segmentation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FGAseg outperforms existing methods on open-vocabulary semantic segmentation benchmarks.

Bingyu Li, Feiyu Wang, Da Zhang et al.

Most existing underwater instance segmentation approaches are constrained by close-vocabulary prediction, limiting their ability to recognize novel marine categories. To support evaluation, we introduce \textbf{MARIS} (\underline{Mar}ine Open-Vocabulary \underline{I}nstance \underline{S}egmentation), the first large-scale fine-grained benchmark for underwater Open-Vocabulary (OV) segmentation, featuring a limited set of seen categories and diverse unseen categories. Although OV segmentation has shown promise on natural images, our analysis reveals that transfer to underwater scenes suffers from severe visual degradation (e.g., color attenuation) and semantic misalignment caused by lack underwater class definitions. To address these issues, we propose a unified framework with two complementary components. The Geometric Prior Enhancement Module (\textbf{GPEM}) leverages stable part-level and structural cues to maintain object consistency under degraded visual conditions. The Semantic Alignment Injection Mechanism (\textbf{SAIM}) enriches language embeddings with domain-specific priors, mitigating semantic ambiguity and improving recognition of unseen categories. Experiments show that our framework consistently outperforms existing OV baselines both In-Domain and Cross-Domain setting on MARIS, establishing a strong foundation for future underwater perception research.

Haoyang Li, Huan Gao, Zhiyuan Zhao et al.

The widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) has heightened concerns about their security, particularly their vulnerability to jailbreak attacks that leverage crafted prompts to generate malicious outputs. While prior research has been conducted on general security capabilities of LLMs, their specific susceptibility to jailbreak attacks in code generation remains largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we propose MalwareBench, a benchmark dataset containing 3,520 jailbreaking prompts for malicious code-generation, designed to evaluate LLM robustness against such threats. MalwareBench is based on 320 manually crafted malicious code generation requirements, covering 11 jailbreak methods and 29 code functionality categories. Experiments show that mainstream LLMs exhibit limited ability to reject malicious code-generation requirements, and the combination of multiple jailbreak methods further reduces the model's security capabilities: specifically, the average rejection rate for malicious content is 60.93%, dropping to 39.92% when combined with jailbreak attack algorithms. Our work highlights that the code security capabilities of LLMs still pose significant challenges.

Zhiyuan Zhao, Yubin Wen, Siyu Yang et al.

Crowd counting is a task of estimating the number of the crowd through images, which is extremely valuable in the fields of intelligent security, urban planning, public safety management, and so on. However, the existing counting methods have some problems in practical application on embedded systems for these fields, such as excessive model parameters, abundant complex calculations, etc. The practical application of embedded systems requires the model to be real-time, which means that the model is fast enough. Considering the aforementioned problems, we design a super real-time model with a stem-encoder-decoder structure for crowd counting tasks, which achieves the fastest inference compared with state-of-the-arts. Firstly, large convolution kernels in the stem network are used to enlarge the receptive field, which effectively extracts detailed head information. Then, in the encoder part, we use conditional channel weighting and multi-branch local fusion block to merge multi-scale features with low computational consumption. This part is crucial to the super real-time performance of the model. Finally, the feature pyramid networks are added to the top of the encoder to alleviate its incomplete fusion problems. Experiments on three benchmarks show that our network is suitable for super real-time crowd counting on embedded systems, ensuring competitive accuracy. At the same time, the proposed network reasoning speed is the fastest. Specifically, the proposed network achieves 381.7 FPS on NVIDIA GTX 1080Ti and 71.9 FPS on NVIDIA Jetson TX1.

Zhiyuan Zhao, Sitan Yang, Kin G. Olivares et al.

Multi-horizon time series forecasting has many practical applications such as demand forecasting. Accurate demand prediction is critical to help make buying and inventory decisions for supply chain management of e-commerce and physical retailers, and such predictions are typically required for future horizons extending tens of weeks. This is especially challenging during high-stake sales events when demand peaks are particularly difficult to predict accurately. However, these events are important not only for managing supply chain operations but also for ensuring a seamless shopping experience for customers. To address this challenge, we propose Temporal-Aligned Transformer (TAT), a multi-horizon forecaster leveraging apriori-known context variables such as holiday and promotion events information for improving predictive performance. Our model consists of an encoder and decoder, both embedded with a novel Temporal Alignment Attention (TAA), designed to learn context-dependent alignment for peak demand forecasting. We conduct extensive empirical analysis on two large-scale proprietary datasets from a large e-commerce retailer. We demonstrate that TAT brings up to 30% accuracy improvement on peak demand forecasting while maintaining competitive overall performance compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

Zihan Guan, Zhiyuan Zhao, Fengwei Tian et al.

It is now well understood that diverse datasets provide a lot of value in key epidemiology and public health analyses, such as forecasting and nowcasting, development of epidemic models, evaluation and design of interventions and resource allocation. Some of these datasets are often sensitive, and need adequate privacy protections. There are many models of privacy, but Differential Privacy (DP) has become a de facto standard because of its strong guarantees, without making models about adversaries. In this paper, we develop a framework the integrates deep learning and epidemic models to simultaneously perform epidemic forecasting and learning a mechanistic model of epidemic spread, while incorporating multiple datasets for these analyses, including some with DP guarantees. We demonstrate our framework using a realistic but synthetic financial dataset with DP; such a dataset has not been used in such epidemic analyses. We show that this dataset provides significant value in forecasting and learning an epidemic model, even when used with DP guarantees.

Haoxin Liu, Harshavardhan Kamarthi, Lingkai Kong et al.

Time-series forecasting (TSF) finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Due to the dynamic nature of time-series data, it is crucial to equip TSF models with out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization abilities, as historical training data and future test data can have different distributions. In this paper, we aim to alleviate the inherent OOD problem in TSF via invariant learning. We identify fundamental challenges of invariant learning for TSF. First, the target variables in TSF may not be sufficiently determined by the input due to unobserved core variables in TSF, breaking the conventional assumption of invariant learning. Second, time-series datasets lack adequate environment labels, while existing environmental inference methods are not suitable for TSF. To address these challenges, we propose FOIL, a model-agnostic framework that enables timeseries Forecasting for Out-of-distribution generalization via Invariant Learning. FOIL employs a novel surrogate loss to mitigate the impact of unobserved variables. Further, FOIL implements a joint optimization by alternately inferring environments effectively with a multi-head network while preserving the temporal adjacency structure, and learning invariant representations across inferred environments for OOD generalized TSF. We demonstrate that the proposed FOIL significantly improves the performance of various TSF models, achieving gains of up to 85%.

Chuanxin Tang, Chong Luo, Zhiyuan Zhao et al.

Given a piece of speech and its transcript text, text-based speech editing aims to generate speech that can be seamlessly inserted into the given speech by editing the transcript. Existing methods adopt a two-stage approach: synthesize the input text using a generic text-to-speech (TTS) engine and then transform the voice to the desired voice using voice conversion (VC). A major problem of this framework is that VC is a challenging problem which usually needs a moderate amount of parallel training data to work satisfactorily. In this paper, we propose a one-stage context-aware framework to generate natural and coherent target speech without any training data of the target speaker. In particular, we manage to perform accurate zero-shot duration prediction for the inserted text. The predicted duration is used to regulate both text embedding and speech embedding. Then, based on the aligned cross-modality input, we directly generate the mel-spectrogram of the edited speech with a transformer-based decoder. Subjective listening tests show that despite the lack of training data for the speaker, our method has achieved satisfactory results. It outperforms a recent zero-shot TTS engine by a large margin.

Yucheng Zhao, Dacheng Yin, Chong Luo et al.

This paper presents a self-supervised learning framework, named MGF, for general-purpose speech representation learning. In the design of MGF, speech hierarchy is taken into consideration. Specifically, we propose to use generative learning approaches to capture fine-grained information at small time scales and use discriminative learning approaches to distill coarse-grained or semantic information at large time scales. For phoneme-scale learning, we borrow idea from the masked language model but tailor it for the continuous speech signal by replacing classification loss with a contrastive loss. We corroborate our design by evaluating MGF representation on various downstream tasks, including phoneme classification, speaker classification, speech recognition, and emotion classification. Experiments verify that training at different time scales needs different training targets and loss functions, which in general complement each other and lead to a better performance.