Jacky Liang

Jacky Liang

We propose a stylized model of human-AI collaboration that isolates a mechanism we call the novelty bottleneck: the fraction of a task requiring human judgment creates an irreducible serial component analogous to Amdahl's Law in parallel computing. The model assumes that tasks decompose into atomic decisions, a fraction $ν$ of which are "novel" (not covered by the agent's prior), and that specification, verification, and error correction each scale with task size. From these assumptions, we derive several non-obvious consequences: (1) there is no smooth sublinear regime for human effort it transitions sharply from $O(E)$ to $O(1)$ with no intermediate scaling class; (2) better agents improve the coefficient on human effort but not the exponent; (3) for organizations of n humans with AI agents, optimal team size decreases with agent capability; (4) wall-clock time achieves $O(\sqrt{E})$ through team parallelism but total human effort remains $O(E)$; and (5) the resulting AI safety profile is asymmetric -- AI is bottlenecked on frontier research but unbottlenecked on exploiting existing knowledge. We show these predictions are consistent with empirical observations from AI coding benchmarks, scientific productivity data, and practitioner reports. Our contribution is not a proof that human effort must scale linearly, but a framework that identifies the novelty fraction as the key parameter governing AI-assisted productivity, and derives consequences that clarify -- rather than refute -- prevalent narratives about intelligence explosions and the "country of geniuses in a data center."

Max Sobol Mark, Jacky Liang, Maria Attarian et al.

Many robot tasks require attending to the history of past observations. For example, finding an item in a room requires remembering which places have already been searched. However, the best-performing robot policies typically condition only on the current observation, limiting their applicability to such tasks. Naively conditioning on past observations often fails due to spurious correlations: policies latch onto incidental features of training histories that do not generalize to out-of-distribution trajectories upon deployment. We analyze why policies latch onto these spurious correlations and find that this problem stems from limited coverage over the space of possible histories during training, which grows exponentially with horizon. Existing regularization techniques provide inconsistent benefits across tasks, as they do not fundamentally address this coverage problem. Motivated by these findings, we propose Big Picture Policies (BPP), an approach that conditions on a minimal set of meaningful keyframes detected by a vision-language model. By projecting diverse rollouts onto a compact set of task-relevant events, BPP substantially reduces distribution shift between training and deployment, without sacrificing expressivity. We evaluate BPP on four challenging real-world manipulation tasks and three simulation tasks, all requiring history conditioning. BPP achieves 70% higher success rates than the best comparison on real-world evaluations.