Fei‐Fei Liu

Yaodong Yang, Guangyong Chen, Hongyao Tang et al.

Overestimation in single-agent reinforcement learning has been extensively studied. In contrast, overestimation in the multiagent setting has received comparatively little attention although it increases with the number of agents and leads to severe learning instability. Previous works concentrate on reducing overestimation in the estimation process of target Q-value. They ignore the follow-up optimization process of online Q-network, thus making it hard to fully address the complex multiagent overestimation problem. To solve this challenge, in this study, we first establish an iterative estimation-optimization analysis framework for multiagent value-mixing Q-learning. Our analysis reveals that multiagent overestimation not only comes from the computation of target Q-value but also accumulates in the online Q-network's optimization. Motivated by it, we propose the Dual Ensembled Multiagent Q-Learning with Hypernet Regularizer algorithm to tackle multiagent overestimation from two aspects. First, we extend the random ensemble technique into the estimation of target individual and global Q-values to derive a lower update target. Second, we propose a novel hypernet regularizer on hypernetwork weights and biases to constrain the optimization of online global Q-network to prevent overestimation accumulation. Extensive experiments in MPE and SMAC show that the proposed method successfully addresses overestimation across various tasks.

Michal Kazmierski, Mattea Welch, Sejin Kim et al.

Accurate prognosis for an individual patient is a key component of precision oncology. Recent advances in machine learning have enabled the development of models using a wider range of data, including imaging. Radiomics aims to extract quantitative predictive and prognostic biomarkers from routine medical imaging, but evidence for computed tomography radiomics for prognosis remains inconclusive. We have conducted an institutional machine learning challenge to develop an accurate model for overall survival prediction in head and neck cancer using clinical data etxracted from electronic medical records and pre-treatment radiological images, as well as to evaluate the true added benefit of radiomics for head and neck cancer prognosis. Using a large, retrospective dataset of 2,552 patients and a rigorous evaluation framework, we compared 12 different submissions using imaging and clinical data, separately or in combination. The winning approach used non-linear, multitask learning on clinical data and tumour volume, achieving high prognostic accuracy for 2-year and lifetime survival prediction and outperforming models relying on clinical data only, engineered radiomics and deep learning. Combining all submissions in an ensemble model resulted in improved accuracy, with the highest gain from a image-based deep learning model. Our results show the potential of machine learning and simple, informative prognostic factors in combination with large datasets as a tool to guide personalized cancer care.