Stefan Depeweg

Richard Bergna, Stefan Depeweg, Sergio Calvo-Ordoñez et al.

Reliable uncertainty estimates are crucial for deploying pretrained models; yet, many strong methods for quantifying uncertainty require retraining, Monte Carlo sampling, or expensive second-order computations and may alter a frozen backbone's predictions. To address this, we introduce Gaussian Process Activations (GAPA), a post-hoc method that shifts Bayesian modeling from weights to activations. GAPA replaces standard nonlinearities with Gaussian-process activations whose posterior mean exactly matches the original activation, preserving the backbone's point predictions by construction while providing closed-form epistemic variances in activation space. To scale to modern architectures, we use a sparse variational inducing-point approximation over cached training activations, combined with local k-nearest-neighbor subset conditioning, enabling deterministic single-pass uncertainty propagation without sampling, backpropagation, or second-order information. Across regression, classification, image segmentation, and language modeling, GAPA matches or outperforms strong post-hoc baselines in calibration and out-of-distribution detection while remaining efficient at test time.

Richard Bergna, Stefan Depeweg, José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Prior-Fitted Networks (PFNs) amortize Bayesian prediction by meta-learning over a synthetic task prior, but their standard output is a posterior predictive distribution over noisy observations. For sequential decision-making, such as active learning and Bayesian optimization, acquisition should prioritize epistemic uncertainty about the latent signal rather than irreducible aleatoric observation noise. We show that this epistemic--aleatoric split is not identifiable in general from the posterior predictive distribution alone, even when that distribution is known exactly. We then exploit a distinctive advantage of PFNs: because the synthetic data-generating process is under our control, each task can contain an explicit latent signal and noise function, and the generator can provide query-level labels for both the noiseless target and the observation-noise variance. We use these labels to train a decoupled PFN with separate latent-signal and aleatoric heads. The observation-level predictive is induced by convolving the latent signal distribution with the learned noise model. Empirically, epistemic-only acquisition mitigates the failure mode of total-variance exploration in noisy and heteroscedastic settings. In matched comparisons, decoupled models usually improve over tuned observation-level baselines, with the clearest gains in HPO; in broader sweeps, a decoupled model obtains the best average rank in both HPO and synthetic BO.

Nils Lehmann, Nina Maria Gottschling, Stefan Depeweg et al.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been successfully applied to earth observation (EO) data and opened new research avenues. Despite the theoretical and practical advances of these techniques, DNNs are still considered black box tools and by default are designed to give point predictions. However, the majority of EO applications demand reliable uncertainty estimates that can support practitioners in critical decision making tasks. This work provides a theoretical and quantitative comparison of existing uncertainty quantification methods for DNNs applied to the task of wind speed estimation in satellite imagery of tropical cyclones. We provide a detailed evaluation of predictive uncertainty estimates from state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for DNNs. We find that predictive uncertainties can be utilized to further improve accuracy and analyze the predictive uncertainties of different methods across storm categories.

Richard Bergna, Stefan Depeweg, Sergio Calvo Ordonez et al.

Uncertainty quantification in neural networks through methods such as Dropout, Bayesian neural networks and Laplace approximations is either prone to underfitting or computationally demanding, rendering these approaches impractical for large-scale datasets. In this work, we address these shortcomings by shifting the focus from uncertainty in the weight space to uncertainty at the activation level, via Gaussian processes. More specifically, we introduce the Gaussian Process Activation function (GAPA) to capture neuron-level uncertainties. Our approach operates in a post-hoc manner, preserving the original mean predictions of the pre-trained neural network and thereby avoiding the underfitting issues commonly encountered in previous methods. We propose two methods. The first, GAPA-Free, employs empirical kernel learning from the training data for the hyperparameters and is highly efficient during training. The second, GAPA-Variational, learns the hyperparameters via gradient descent on the kernels, thus affording greater flexibility. Empirical results demonstrate that GAPA-Variational outperforms the Laplace approximation on most datasets in at least one of the uncertainty quantification metrics.

Amna Najib, Stefan Depeweg, Phillip Swazinna

Batch reinforcement learning enables policy learning without direct interaction with the environment during training, relying exclusively on previously collected sets of interactions. This approach is, therefore, well-suited for high-risk and cost-intensive applications, such as industrial control. Learned policies are commonly restricted to act in a similar fashion as observed in the batch. In a real-world scenario, learned policies are deployed in the industrial system, inevitably leading to the collection of new data that can subsequently be added to the existing recording. The process of learning and deployment can thus take place multiple times throughout the lifespan of a system. In this work, we propose to exploit this iterative nature of applying offline reinforcement learning to guide learned policies towards efficient and informative data collection during deployment, leading to continuous improvement of learned policies while remaining within the support of collected data. We present an algorithmic methodology for iterative batch reinforcement learning based on ensemble-based model-based policy search, augmented with safety and, importantly, a diversity criterion.

Stefan Depeweg, Constantin A. Rothkopf, Frank Jäkel

More than 50 years ago Bongard introduced 100 visual concept learning problems as a testbed for intelligent vision systems. These problems are now known as Bongard problems. Although they are well known in the cognitive science and AI communities only moderate progress has been made towards building systems that can solve a substantial subset of them. In the system presented here, visual features are extracted through image processing and then translated into a symbolic visual vocabulary. We introduce a formal language that allows representing complex visual concepts based on this vocabulary. Using this language and Bayesian inference, complex visual concepts can be induced from the examples that are provided in each Bongard problem. Contrary to other concept learning problems the examples from which concepts are induced are not random in Bongard problems, instead they are carefully chosen to communicate the concept, hence requiring pragmatic reasoning. Taking pragmatic reasoning into account we find good agreement between the concepts with high posterior probability and the solutions formulated by Bongard himself. While this approach is far from solving all Bongard problems, it solves the biggest fraction yet.

Stefan Depeweg, José Miguel Hernández-Lobato, Steffen Udluft et al.

We derive a novel sensitivity analysis of input variables for predictive epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. We use Bayesian neural networks with latent variables as a model class and illustrate the usefulness of our sensitivity analysis on real-world datasets. Our method increases the interpretability of complex black-box probabilistic models.

Stefan Depeweg, José Miguel Hernández-Lobato, Finale Doshi-Velez et al.

Bayesian neural networks with latent variables are scalable and flexible probabilistic models: They account for uncertainty in the estimation of the network weights and, by making use of latent variables, can capture complex noise patterns in the data. We show how to extract and decompose uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components for decision-making purposes. This allows us to successfully identify informative points for active learning of functions with heteroscedastic and bimodal noise. Using the decomposition we further define a novel risk-sensitive criterion for reinforcement learning to identify policies that balance expected cost, model-bias and noise aversion.

Daniel Hein, Stefan Depeweg, Michel Tokic et al.

In the research area of reinforcement learning (RL), frequently novel and promising methods are developed and introduced to the RL community. However, although many researchers are keen to apply their methods on real-world problems, implementing such methods in real industry environments often is a frustrating and tedious process. Generally, academic research groups have only limited access to real industrial data and applications. For this reason, new methods are usually developed, evaluated and compared by using artificial software benchmarks. On one hand, these benchmarks are designed to provide interpretable RL training scenarios and detailed insight into the learning process of the method on hand. On the other hand, they usually do not share much similarity with industrial real-world applications. For this reason we used our industry experience to design a benchmark which bridges the gap between freely available, documented, and motivated artificial benchmarks and properties of real industrial problems. The resulting industrial benchmark (IB) has been made publicly available to the RL community by publishing its Java and Python code, including an OpenAI Gym wrapper, on Github. In this paper we motivate and describe in detail the IB's dynamics and identify prototypic experimental settings that capture common situations in real-world industry control problems.

Stefan Depeweg, José Miguel Hernández-Lobato, Finale Doshi-Velez et al.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with latent variables are probabilistic models which can automatically identify complex stochastic patterns in the data. We describe and study in these models a decomposition of predictive uncertainty into its epistemic and aleatoric components. First, we show how such a decomposition arises naturally in a Bayesian active learning scenario by following an information theoretic approach. Second, we use a similar decomposition to develop a novel risk sensitive objective for safe reinforcement learning (RL). This objective minimizes the effect of model bias in environments whose stochastic dynamics are described by BNNs with latent variables. Our experiments illustrate the usefulness of the resulting decomposition in active learning and safe RL settings.

Stefan Depeweg, José Miguel Hernández-Lobato, Finale Doshi-Velez et al.

We present an algorithm for model-based reinforcement learning that combines Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with random roll-outs and stochastic optimization for policy learning. The BNNs are trained by minimizing $α$-divergences, allowing us to capture complicated statistical patterns in the transition dynamics, e.g. multi-modality and heteroskedasticity, which are usually missed by other common modeling approaches. We illustrate the performance of our method by solving a challenging benchmark where model-based approaches usually fail and by obtaining promising results in a real-world scenario for controlling a gas turbine.