Haniyeh Ehsani Oskouie

Udari Madhushani Sehwag, Elaine Lau, Haniyeh Ehsani Oskouie et al.

Accelerating scientific discovery requires the identification of which experiments would yield the best outcomes before committing resources to costly physical validation. While existing benchmarks evaluate LLMs on scientific knowledge and reasoning, their ability to predict experimental outcomes - a task where AI could significantly exceed human capabilities - remains largely underexplored. We introduce SciPredict, a benchmark comprising 405 tasks derived from recent empirical studies in 33 specialized sub-fields of physics, biology, and chemistry. SciPredict addresses two critical questions: (a) can LLMs predict the outcome of scientific experiments with sufficient accuracy? and (b) can such predictions be reliably used in the scientific research process? Evaluations reveal fundamental limitations on both fronts. Model accuracies are 14-26% and human expert performance is $\approx$20%. Although some frontier models exceed human performance model accuracy is still far below what would enable reliable experimental guidance. Even within the limited performance, models fail to distinguish reliable predictions from unreliable ones, achieving only $\approx$20% accuracy regardless of their confidence or whether they judge outcomes as predictable without physical experimentation. Human experts, in contrast, demonstrate strong calibration: their accuracy increases from $\approx$5% to $\approx$80% as they deem outcomes more predictable without conducting the experiment. SciPredict establishes a rigorous framework demonstrating that superhuman performance in experimental science requires not just better predictions, but better awareness of prediction reliability. For reproducibility all our data and code are provided at https://github.com/scaleapi/scipredict

Haniyeh Ehsani Oskouie, Farzan Farnia

Interpreting neural network classifiers using gradient-based saliency maps has been extensively studied in the deep learning literature. While the existing algorithms manage to achieve satisfactory performance in application to standard image recognition datasets, recent works demonstrate the vulnerability of widely-used gradient-based interpretation schemes to norm-bounded perturbations adversarially designed for every individual input sample. However, such adversarial perturbations are commonly designed using the knowledge of an input sample, and hence perform sub-optimally in application to an unknown or constantly changing data point. In this paper, we show the existence of a Universal Perturbation for Interpretation (UPI) for standard image datasets, which can alter a gradient-based feature map of neural networks over a significant fraction of test samples. To design such a UPI, we propose a gradient-based optimization method as well as a principal component analysis (PCA)-based approach to compute a UPI which can effectively alter a neural network's gradient-based interpretation on different samples. We support the proposed UPI approaches by presenting several numerical results of their successful applications to standard image datasets.