Ashkan Jasour

Weiqiao Han, Ashkan Jasour, Brian Williams

We consider the motion planning problem for stochastic nonlinear systems in uncertain environments. More precisely, in this problem the robot has stochastic nonlinear dynamics and uncertain initial locations, and the environment contains multiple dynamic uncertain obstacles. Obstacles can be of arbitrary shape, can deform, and can move. All uncertainties do not necessarily have Gaussian distribution. This general setting has been considered and solved in [1]. In addition to the assumptions above, in this paper, we consider long-term tasks, where the planning method in [1] would fail, as the uncertainty of the system states grows too large over a long time horizon. Unlike [1], we present a real-time online motion planning algorithm. We build discrete-time motion primitives and their corresponding continuous-time tubes offline, so that almost all system states of each motion primitive are guaranteed to stay inside the corresponding tube. We convert probabilistic safety constraints into a set of deterministic constraints called risk contours. During online execution, we verify the safety of the tubes against deterministic risk contours using sum-of-squares (SOS) programming. The provided SOS-based method verifies the safety of the tube in the presence of uncertain obstacles without the need for uncertainty samples and time discretization in real-time. By bounding the probability the system states staying inside the tube and bounding the probability of the tube colliding with obstacles, our approach guarantees bounded probability of system states colliding with obstacles. We demonstrate our approach on several long-term robotics tasks.

Weiqiao Han, Ashkan Jasour, Brian Williams

In this paper, we consider the closed-loop control problem of nonlinear robotic systems in the presence of probabilistic uncertainties and disturbances. More precisely, we design a state feedback controller that minimizes deviations of the states of the system from the nominal state trajectories due to uncertainties and disturbances. Existing approaches to address the control problem of probabilistic systems are limited to particular classes of uncertainties and systems such as Gaussian uncertainties and processes and linearized systems. We present an approach that deals with nonlinear dynamics models and arbitrary known probabilistic uncertainties. We formulate the controller design problem as an optimization problem in terms of statistics of the probability distributions including moments and characteristic functions. In particular, in the provided optimization problem, we use moments and characteristic functions to propagate uncertainties throughout the nonlinear motion model of robotic systems. In order to reduce the tracking deviations, we minimize the uncertainty of the probabilistic states around the nominal trajectory by minimizing the trace and the determinant of the covariance matrix of the probabilistic states. To obtain the state feedback gains, we solve deterministic optimization problems in terms of moments, characteristic functions, and state feedback gains using off-the-shelf interior-point optimization solvers. To illustrate the performance of the proposed method, we compare our method with existing probabilistic control methods.

Ashkan Jasour, Guglielmo Daddi, Masafumi Endo et al. · oxford

Snake robots enable mobility through extreme terrains and confined environments in terrestrial and space applications. However, robust perception and localization for snake robots remain an open challenge due to the proximity of the sensor payload to the ground coupled with a limited field of view. To address this issue, we propose Blind-motion with Intermittently Scheduled Scans (BLISS) which combines proprioception-only mobility with intermittent scans to be resilient against both localization failures and collision risks. BLISS is formulated as an integrated Task and Motion Planning (TAMP) problem that leads to a Chance-Constrained Hybrid Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (CC-HPOMDP), known to be computationally intractable due to the curse of history. Our novelty lies in reformulating CC-HPOMDP as a tractable, convex Mixed Integer Linear Program. This allows us to solve BLISS-TAMP significantly faster and jointly derive optimal task-motion plans. Simulations and hardware experiments on the EELS snake robot show our method achieves over an order of magnitude computational improvement compared to state-of-the-art POMDP planners and $>$ 50\% better navigation time optimality versus classical two-stage planners.

Ashkan Jasour, Weiqiao Han, Brian Williams

In this paper, we address the trajectory planning problem in uncertain nonconvex static and dynamic environments that contain obstacles with probabilistic location, size, and geometry. To address this problem, we provide a risk bounded trajectory planning method that looks for continuous-time trajectories with guaranteed bounded risk over the planning time horizon. Risk is defined as the probability of collision with uncertain obstacles. Existing approaches to address risk bounded trajectory planning problems either are limited to Gaussian uncertainties and convex obstacles or rely on sampling-based methods that need uncertainty samples and time discretization. To address the risk bounded trajectory planning problem, we leverage the notion of risk contours to transform the risk bounded planning problem into a deterministic optimization problem. Risk contours are the set of all points in the uncertain environment with guaranteed bounded risk. The obtained deterministic optimization is, in general, nonlinear and nonconvex time-varying optimization. We provide convex methods based on sum-of-squares optimization to efficiently solve the obtained nonconvex time-varying optimization problem and obtain the continuous-time risk bounded trajectories without time discretization. The provided approach deals with arbitrary (and known) probabilistic uncertainties, nonconvex and nonlinear, static and dynamic obstacles, and is suitable for online trajectory planning problems. In addition, we provide convex methods based on sum-of-squares optimization to build the max-sized tube with respect to its parameterization along the trajectory so that any state inside the tube is guaranteed to have bounded risk.

Xin Huang, Guy Rosman, Ashkan Jasour et al.

When predicting trajectories of road agents, motion predictors usually approximate the future distribution by a limited number of samples. This constraint requires the predictors to generate samples that best support the task given task specifications. However, existing predictors are often optimized and evaluated via task-agnostic measures without accounting for the use of predictions in downstream tasks, and thus could result in sub-optimal task performance. In this paper, we propose a task-informed motion prediction model that better supports the tasks through its predictions, by jointly reasoning about prediction accuracy and the utility of the downstream tasks, which is commonly used to evaluate the task performance. The task utility function does not require the full task information, but rather a specification of the utility of the task, resulting in predictors that serve a wide range of downstream tasks. We demonstrate our approach on two use cases of common decision making tasks and their utility functions, in the context of autonomous driving and parallel autonomy. Experiment results show that our predictor produces accurate predictions that improve the task performance by a large margin in both tasks when compared to task-agnostic baselines on the Waymo Open Motion dataset.

Xin Huang, Guy Rosman, Igor Gilitschenski et al.

Modeling multi-modal high-level intent is important for ensuring diversity in trajectory prediction. Existing approaches explore the discrete nature of human intent before predicting continuous trajectories, to improve accuracy and support explainability. However, these approaches often assume the intent to remain fixed over the prediction horizon, which is problematic in practice, especially over longer horizons. To overcome this limitation, we introduce HYPER, a general and expressive hybrid prediction framework that models evolving human intent. By modeling traffic agents as a hybrid discrete-continuous system, our approach is capable of predicting discrete intent changes over time. We learn the probabilistic hybrid model via a maximum likelihood estimation problem and leverage neural proposal distributions to sample adaptively from the exponentially growing discrete space. The overall approach affords a better trade-off between accuracy and coverage. We train and validate our model on the Argoverse dataset, and demonstrate its effectiveness through comprehensive ablation studies and comparisons with state-of-the-art models.

Ashkan Jasour, Weiqiao Han, Brian Williams

In this paper, we address the real-time risk-bounded safety verification problem of continuous-time state trajectories of autonomous systems in the presence of uncertain time-varying nonlinear safety constraints. Risk is defined as the probability of not satisfying the uncertain safety constraints. Existing approaches to address the safety verification problems under uncertainties either are limited to particular classes of uncertainties and safety constraints, e.g., Gaussian uncertainties and linear constraints, or rely on sampling based methods. In this paper, we provide a fast convex algorithm to efficiently evaluate the probabilistic nonlinear safety constraints in the presence of arbitrary probability distributions and long planning horizons in real-time, without the need for uncertainty samples and time discretization. The provided approach verifies the safety of the given state trajectory and its neighborhood (tube) to account for the execution uncertainties and risk. In the provided approach, we first use the moments of the probability distributions of the uncertainties to transform the probabilistic safety constraints into a set of deterministic safety constraints. We then use convex methods based on sum-of-squares polynomials to verify the obtained deterministic safety constraints over the entire planning time horizon without time discretization. To illustrate the performance of the proposed method, we apply the provided method to the safety verification problem of self-driving vehicles and autonomous aerial vehicles.

Ashkan Jasour, Xin Huang, Allen Wang et al.

This paper presents fast non-sampling based methods to assess the risk for trajectories of autonomous vehicles when probabilistic predictions of other agents' futures are generated by deep neural networks (DNNs). The presented methods address a wide range of representations for uncertain predictions including both Gaussian and non-Gaussian mixture models to predict both agent positions and control inputs conditioned on the scene contexts. We show that the problem of risk assessment when Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) of agent positions are learned can be solved rapidly to arbitrary levels of accuracy with existing numerical methods. To address the problem of risk assessment for non-Gaussian mixture models of agent position, we propose finding upper bounds on risk using nonlinear Chebyshev's Inequality and sums-of-squares (SOS) programming; they are both of interest as the former is much faster while the latter can be arbitrarily tight. These approaches only require higher order statistical moments of agent positions to determine upper bounds on risk. To perform risk assessment when models are learned for agent control inputs as opposed to positions, we propagate the moments of uncertain control inputs through the nonlinear motion dynamics to obtain the exact moments of uncertain position over the planning horizon. To this end, we construct deterministic linear dynamical systems that govern the exact time evolution of the moments of uncertain position in the presence of uncertain control inputs. The presented methods are demonstrated on realistic predictions from DNNs trained on the Argoverse and CARLA datasets and are shown to be effective for rapidly assessing the probability of low probability events.

Xin Huang, Meng Feng, Ashkan Jasour et al.

Risk-bounded motion planning is an important yet difficult problem for safety-critical tasks. While existing mathematical programming methods offer theoretical guarantees in the context of constrained Markov decision processes, they either lack scalability in solving larger problems or produce conservative plans. Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning improve scalability by learning policy networks as function approximators. In this paper, we propose an extension of soft actor critic model to estimate the execution risk of a plan through a risk critic and produce risk-bounded policies efficiently by adding an extra risk term in the loss function of the policy network. We define the execution risk in an accurate form, as opposed to approximating it through a summation of immediate risks at each time step that leads to conservative plans. Our proposed model is conditioned on a continuous spectrum of risk bounds, allowing the user to adjust the risk-averse level of the agent on the fly. Through a set of experiments, we show the advantage of our model in terms of both computational time and plan quality, compared to a state-of-the-art mathematical programming baseline, and validate its performance in more complicated scenarios, including nonlinear dynamics and larger state space.

Ashkan Jasour, Weiqiao Han, Brian Williams

In this paper, we address the trajectory planning problem in uncertain nonconvex static and dynamic environments that contain obstacles with probabilistic location, size, and geometry. To address this problem, we provide a risk bounded trajectory planning method that looks for continuous-time trajectories with guaranteed bounded risk over the planning time horizon. Risk is defined as the probability of collision with uncertain obstacles. Existing approaches to address risk bounded trajectory planning problems either are limited to Gaussian uncertainties and convex obstacles or rely on sampling-based methods that need uncertainty samples and time discretization. To address the risk bounded trajectory planning problem, we leverage the notion of risk contours to transform the risk bounded planning problem into a deterministic optimization problem. Risk contours are the set of all points in the uncertain environment with guaranteed bounded risk. The obtained deterministic optimization is, in general, nonlinear and nonconvex time-varying optimization. We provide convex methods based on sum-of-squares optimization to efficiently solve the obtained nonconvex time-varying optimization problem and obtain the continuous-time risk bounded trajectories without time discretization. The provided approach deals with arbitrary probabilistic uncertainties, nonconvex and nonlinear, static and dynamic obstacles, and is suitable for online trajectory planning problems.

Ashkan Jasour, Allen Wang, Brian C. Williams

In this paper, we address the problem of uncertainty propagation through nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems. More precisely, given a discrete-time continuous-state probabilistic nonlinear dynamical system, we aim at finding the sequence of the moments of the probability distributions of the system states up to any desired order over the given planning horizon. Moments of uncertain states can be used in estimation, planning, control, and safety analysis of stochastic dynamical systems. Existing approaches to address moment propagation problems provide approximate descriptions of the moments and are mainly limited to particular set of uncertainties, e.g., Gaussian disturbances. In this paper, to describe the moments of uncertain states, we introduce trigonometric and also mixed-trigonometric-polynomial moments. Such moments allow us to obtain closed deterministic dynamical systems that describe the exact time evolution of the moments of uncertain states of an important class of autonomous and robotic systems including underwater, ground, and aerial vehicles, robotic arms and walking robots. Such obtained deterministic dynamical systems can be used, in a receding horizon fashion, to propagate the uncertainties over the planning horizon in real-time. To illustrate the performance of the proposed method, we benchmark our method against existing approaches including linear, unscented transformation, and sampling based uncertainty propagation methods that are widely used in estimation, prediction, planning, and control problems.

Allen Wang, Xin Huang, Ashkan Jasour et al.

This paper presents fast non-sampling based methods to assess the risk of trajectories for autonomous vehicles when probabilistic predictions of other agents' futures are generated by deep neural networks (DNNs). The presented methods address a wide range of representations for uncertain predictions including both Gaussian and non-Gaussian mixture models for predictions of both agent positions and controls. We show that the problem of risk assessment when Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) of agent positions are learned can be solved rapidly to arbitrary levels of accuracy with existing numerical methods. To address the problem of risk assessment for non-Gaussian mixture models of agent position, we propose finding upper bounds on risk using Chebyshev's Inequality and sums-of-squares (SOS) programming; they are both of interest as the former is much faster while the latter can be arbitrarily tight. These approaches only require statistical moments of agent positions to determine upper bounds on risk. To perform risk assessment when models are learned for agent controls as opposed to positions, we develop TreeRing, an algorithm analogous to tree search over the ring of polynomials that can be used to exactly propagate moments of control distributions into position distributions through nonlinear dynamics. The presented methods are demonstrated on realistic predictions from DNNs trained on the Argoverse and CARLA datasets and are shown to be effective for rapidly assessing the probability of low probability events.

Jingwei Song, Mitesh Patel, Ashkan Jasour et al.

Semi-Definite Programming (SDP) with low-rank prior has been widely applied in Non-Rigid Structure from Motion (NRSfM). Based on a low-rank constraint, it avoids the inherent ambiguity of basis number selection in conventional base-shape or base-trajectory methods. Despite the efficiency in deformable shape reconstruction, it remains unclear how to assess the uncertainty of the recovered shape from the SDP process. In this paper, we present a statistical inference on the element-wise uncertainty quantification of the estimated deforming 3D shape points in the case of the exact low-rank SDP problem. A closed-form uncertainty quantification method is proposed and tested. Moreover, we extend the exact low-rank uncertainty quantification to the approximate low-rank scenario with a numerical optimal rank selection method, which enables solving practical application in SDP based NRSfM scenario. The proposed method provides an independent module to the SDP method and only requires the statistic information of the input 2D tracked points. Extensive experiments prove that the output 3D points have identical normal distribution to the 2D trackings, the proposed method and quantify the uncertainty accurately, and supports that it has desirable effects on routinely SDP low-rank based NRSfM solver.

Allen Wang, Ashkan Jasour, Brian Williams

Chance-constrained motion planning requires uncertainty in dynamics to be propagated into uncertainty in state. When nonlinear models are used, Gaussian assumptions on the state distribution do not necessarily apply since almost all random variables propagated through nonlinear dynamics results in non-Gaussian state distributions. To address this, recent works have developed moment-based approaches for enforcing chance-constraints on non-Gaussian state distributions. However, there still lacks fast and accurate moment propagation methods to determine the necessary statistical moments of these state distributions. To address this gap, we present a framework that, given a stochastic dynamical system, can algorithmically search for a new dynamical system in terms of moment state that can be used to propagate moments of disturbance random variables into moments of the state distribution. The key algorithm, TreeRing, can be applied to a large class of nonlinear systems which we refer to as trigonometric polynomial systems. As an example application, we present a distributionally robust RRT (DR-RRT) algorithm that propagates uncertainty through the nonlinear Dubin's car model without linearization.

Charles Dawson, Ashkan Jasour, Andreas Hofmann et al.

Real-world environments are inherently uncertain, and to operate safely in these environments robots must be able to plan around this uncertainty. In the context of motion planning, we desire systems that can maintain an acceptable level of safety as the robot moves, even when the exact locations of nearby obstacles are not known. In this paper, we solve this chance-constrained motion planning problem using a sequential convex optimization framework. To constrain the risk of collision incurred by planned movements, we employ geometric objects called $ε$-shadows to compute upper bounds on the risk of collision between the robot and uncertain obstacles. We use these $ε$-shadow-based estimates as constraints in a nonlinear trajectory optimization problem, which we then solve by iteratively linearizing the non-convex risk constraints. This sequential optimization approach quickly finds trajectories that accomplish the desired motion while maintaining a user-specified limit on collision risk. Our method can be applied to robots and environments with arbitrary convex geometry; even in complex environments, it runs in less than a second and provides provable guarantees on the safety of planned trajectories, enabling fast, reactive, and safe robot motion in realistic environments.

Allen Wang, Ashkan Jasour, Brian Williams

Agent behavior is arguably the greatest source of uncertainty in trajectory planning for autonomous vehicles. This problem has motivated significant amounts of work in the behavior prediction community on learning rich distributions of the future states and actions of agents. However, most current works on chance-constrained trajectory planning under agent or obstacle uncertainty either assume Gaussian uncertainty or linear constraints, which is limiting, or requires sampling, which can be computationally intractable to encode in an optimization problem. In this paper, we extend the state-of-the-art by presenting a methodology to upper-bound chance-constraints defined by polynomials and mixture models with potentially non-Gaussian components. Our method achieves its generality by using statistical moments of the distributions in concentration inequalities to upper-bound the probability of constraint violation. With this method, optimization-based trajectory planners can plan trajectories that are chance-constrained with respect to a wide range of distributions representing predictions of agent future positions. In experiments, we show that the resulting optimization problem can be solved with state-of-the-art nonlinear program solvers to plan trajectories fast enough for use online.

Siyu Dai, Shawn Schaffert, Ashkan Jasour et al.

This paper introduces Probabilistic Chekov (p-Chekov), a chance-constrained motion planning system that can be applied to high degree-of-freedom (DOF) robots under motion uncertainty and imperfect state information. Given process and observation noise models, it can find feasible trajectories which satisfy a user-specified bound over the probability of collision. Leveraging our previous work in deterministic motion planning which integrated trajectory optimization into a sparse roadmap framework, p-Chekov shows superiority in its planning speed for high-dimensional tasks. P-Chekov incorporates a linear-quadratic Gaussian motion planning approach into the estimation of the robot state probability distribution, applies quadrature theories to waypoint collision risk estimation, and adapts risk allocation approaches to assign allowable probabilities of failure among waypoints. Unlike other existing risk-aware planners, p-Chekov can be applied to high-DOF robotic planning tasks without the convexification of the environment. The experiment results in this paper show that this p-Chekov system can effectively reduce collision risk and satisfy user-specified chance constraints in typical real-world planning scenarios for high-DOF robots.

Ashkan Jasour, Andreas Hofmann, Brian C. Williams

In this paper, we address the risk estimation problem where one aims at estimating the probability of violation of safety constraints for a robot in the presence of bounded uncertainties with arbitrary probability distributions. In this problem, an unsafe set is described by level sets of polynomials that is, in general, a non-convex set. Uncertainty arises due to the probabilistic parameters of the unsafe set and probabilistic states of the robot. To solve this problem, we use a moment-based representation of probability distributions. We describe upper and lower bounds of the risk in terms of a linear weighted sum of the moments. Weights are coefficients of a univariate Chebyshev polynomial obtained by solving a sum-of-squares optimization problem in the offline step. Hence, given a finite number of moments of probability distributions, risk can be estimated in real-time. We demonstrate the performance of the provided approach by solving probabilistic collision checking problems where we aim to find the probability of collision of a robot with a non-convex obstacle in the presence of probabilistic uncertainties in the location of the robot and size, location, and geometry of the obstacle.