Oana-Iuliana Popescu

Veronika Solopova, Oana-Iuliana Popescu, Christoph Benzmüller et al.

The full-scale conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine generated an unprecedented amount of news articles and social media data reflecting opposing ideologies and narratives. These polarized campaigns have led to mutual accusations of misinformation and fake news, shaping an atmosphere of confusion and mistrust for readers worldwide. This study analyses how the media affected and mirrored public opinion during the first month of the war using news articles and Telegram news channels in Ukrainian, Russian, Romanian and English. We propose and compare two methods of multilingual automated pro-Kremlin propaganda identification, based on Transformers and linguistic features. We analyse the advantages and disadvantages of both methods, their adaptability to new genres and languages, and ethical considerations of their usage for content moderation. With this work, we aim to lay the foundation for further development of moderation tools tailored to the current conflict.

Oana-Iuliana Popescu, Andreas Gerhardus, Jakob Runge

Conditional independence testing (CIT) is a common task in machine learning, e.g., for variable selection, and a main component of constraint-based causal discovery. While most current CIT approaches assume that all variables are numerical or all variables are categorical, many real-world applications involve mixed-type datasets that include numerical and categorical variables. Non-parametric CIT can be conducted using conditional mutual information (CMI) estimators combined with a local permutation scheme. Recently, two novel CMI estimators for mixed-type datasets based on k-nearest-neighbors (k-NN) have been proposed. As with any k-NN method, these estimators rely on the definition of a distance metric. One approach computes distances by a one-hot encoding of the categorical variables, essentially treating categorical variables as discrete-numerical, while the other expresses CMI by entropy terms where the categorical variables appear as conditions only. In this work, we study these estimators and propose a variation of the former approach that does not treat categorical variables as numeric. Our numerical experiments show that our variant detects dependencies more robustly across different data distributions and preprocessing types.

Wiebke Günther, Oana-Iuliana Popescu, Martin Rabel et al.

Causal systems often exhibit variations of the underlying causal mechanisms between the variables of the system. Often, these changes are driven by different environments or internal states in which the system operates, and we refer to context variables as those variables that indicate this change in causal mechanisms. An example are the causal relations in soil moisture-temperature interactions and their dependence on soil moisture regimes: Dry soil triggers a dependence of soil moisture on latent heat, while environments with wet soil do not feature such a feedback, making it a context-specific property. Crucially, a regime or context variable such as soil moisture need not be exogenous and can be influenced by the dynamical system variables - precipitation can make a dry soil wet - leading to joint systems with endogenous context variables. In this work we investigate the assumptions for constraint-based causal discovery of context-specific information in systems with endogenous context variables. We show that naive approaches such as learning different regime graphs on masked data, or pooling all data, can lead to uninformative results. We propose an adaptive constraint-based discovery algorithm and give a detailed discussion on the connection to structural causal models, including sufficiency assumptions, which allow to prove the soundness of our algorithm and to interpret the results causally. Numerical experiments demonstrate the performance of the proposed method over alternative baselines, but they also unveil current limitations of our method.