Shai Feldman

Shai Feldman, Liran Ringel, Stephen Bates et al.

To provide rigorous uncertainty quantification for online learning models, we develop a framework for constructing uncertainty sets that provably control risk -- such as coverage of confidence intervals, false negative rate, or F1 score -- in the online setting. This extends conformal prediction to apply to a larger class of online learning problems. Our method guarantees risk control at any user-specified level even when the underlying data distribution shifts drastically, even adversarially, over time in an unknown fashion. The technique we propose is highly flexible as it can be applied with any base online learning algorithm (e.g., a deep neural network trained online), requiring minimal implementation effort and essentially zero additional computational cost. We further extend our approach to control multiple risks simultaneously, so the prediction sets we generate are valid for all given risks. To demonstrate the utility of our method, we conduct experiments on real-world tabular time-series data sets showing that the proposed method rigorously controls various natural risks. Furthermore, we show how to construct valid intervals for an online image-depth estimation problem that previous sequential calibration schemes cannot handle.

Or Feldman, Amit Boyarski, Shai Feldman et al.

Graph isomorphism testing is usually approached via the comparison of graph invariants. Two popular alternatives that offer a good trade-off between expressive power and computational efficiency are combinatorial (i.e., obtained via the Weisfeiler-Leman (WL) test) and spectral invariants. While the exact power of the latter is still an open question, the former is regularly criticized for its limited power, when a standard configuration of uniform pre-coloring is used. This drawback hinders the applicability of Message Passing Graph Neural Networks (MPGNNs), whose expressive power is upper bounded by the WL test. Relaxing the assumption of uniform pre-coloring, we show that one can increase the expressive power of the WL test ad infinitum. Following that, we propose an efficient pre-coloring based on spectral features that provably increase the expressive power of the vanilla WL test. The above claims are accompanied by extensive synthetic and real data experiments. The code to reproduce our experiments is available at https://github.com/TPFI22/Spectral-and-Combinatorial

Shai Feldman, Yaniv Romano

We develop a method to generate prediction sets with a guaranteed coverage rate that is robust to corruptions in the training data, such as missing or noisy variables. Our approach builds on conformal prediction, a powerful framework to construct prediction sets that are valid under the i.i.d assumption. Importantly, naively applying conformal prediction does not provide reliable predictions in this setting, due to the distribution shift induced by the corruptions. To account for the distribution shift, we assume access to privileged information (PI). The PI is formulated as additional features that explain the distribution shift, however, they are only available during training and absent at test time. We approach this problem by introducing a novel generalization of weighted conformal prediction and support our method with theoretical coverage guarantees. Empirical experiments on both real and synthetic datasets indicate that our approach achieves a valid coverage rate and constructs more informative predictions compared to existing methods, which are not supported by theoretical guarantees.

Shai Feldman, Stephen Bates, Yaniv Romano

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.