Francisco José de Cáldas

Francisco Caldas, Cláudia Soares

Since the late 1950s, when the first artificial satellite was launched, the number of Resident Space Objects has steadily increased. It is estimated that around one million objects larger than one cm are currently orbiting the Earth, with only thirty thousand larger than ten cm being tracked. To avert a chain reaction of collisions, known as Kessler Syndrome, it is essential to accurately track and predict debris and satellites' orbits. Current approximate physics-based methods have errors in the order of kilometers for seven-day predictions, which is insufficient when considering space debris, typically with less than one meter. This failure is usually due to uncertainty around the state of the space object at the beginning of the trajectory, forecasting errors in environmental conditions such as atmospheric drag, and unknown characteristics such as the mass or geometry of the space object. Operators can enhance Orbit Prediction accuracy by deriving unmeasured objects' characteristics and improving non-conservative forces' effects by leveraging data-driven techniques, such as Machine Learning. In this survey, we provide an overview of the work in applying Machine Learning for Orbit Determination, Orbit Prediction, and atmospheric density modeling.

Francisco Caldas, Cláudia Soares, Cláudia Nunes et al.

Space debris is a major problem in space exploration. International bodies continuously monitor a large database of orbiting objects and emit warnings in the form of conjunction data messages. An important question for satellite operators is to estimate when fresh information will arrive so that they can react timely but sparingly with satellite maneuvers. We propose a statistical learning model of the message arrival process, allowing us to answer two important questions: (1) Will there be any new message in the next specified time interval? (2) When exactly and with what uncertainty will the next message arrive? The average prediction error for question (2) of our Bayesian Poisson process model is smaller than the baseline in more than 4 hours in a test set of 50k close encounter events.

Alexandre Oliveira, Katarina Dyreby, Francisco Caldas et al.

The increasing number of satellites and orbital debris has made space congestion a critical issue, threatening satellite safety and sustainability. Challenges such as collision avoidance, station-keeping, and orbital maneuvering require advanced techniques to handle dynamic uncertainties and multi-agent interactions. Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise in this domain, enabling adaptive, autonomous policies for space operations; however, many existing RL frameworks rely on custom-built environments developed from scratch, which often use simplified models and require significant time to implement and validate the orbital dynamics, limiting their ability to fully capture real-world complexities. To address this, we introduce OrbitZoo, a versatile multi-agent RL environment built on a high-fidelity industry standard library, that enables realistic data generation, supports scenarios like collision avoidance and cooperative maneuvers, and ensures robust and accurate orbital dynamics. The environment is validated against a real satellite constellation, Starlink, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.16% compared to real-world data. This validation ensures reliability for generating high-fidelity simulations and enabling autonomous and independent satellite operations.

Francisco Caldas, Claudia Soares, Cláudia Nunes et al.

Space debris is a major problem in space exploration. International bodies continuously monitor a large database of orbiting objects and emit warnings in the form of conjunction data messages. An important question for satellite operators is to estimate when fresh information will arrive so that they can react timely but sparingly with satellite maneuvers. We propose a statistical learning model of the message arrival process, allowing us to answer two important questions: (1) Will there be any new message in the next specified time interval? (2) When exactly and with what uncertainty will the next message arrive? The average prediction error for question (2) of our Bayesian Poisson process model is smaller than the baseline in more than 4 hours in a test set of 50k close encounter events.