David Owen

Matthias Eisenmann, Annika Reinke, Vivienn Weru et al.

International benchmarking competitions have become fundamental for the comparative performance assessment of image analysis methods. However, little attention has been given to investigating what can be learnt from these competitions. Do they really generate scientific progress? What are common and successful participation strategies? What makes a solution superior to a competing method? To address this gap in the literature, we performed a multi-center study with all 80 competitions that were conducted in the scope of IEEE ISBI 2021 and MICCAI 2021. Statistical analyses performed based on comprehensive descriptions of the submitted algorithms linked to their rank as well as the underlying participation strategies revealed common characteristics of winning solutions. These typically include the use of multi-task learning (63%) and/or multi-stage pipelines (61%), and a focus on augmentation (100%), image preprocessing (97%), data curation (79%), and postprocessing (66%). The "typical" lead of a winning team is a computer scientist with a doctoral degree, five years of experience in biomedical image analysis, and four years of experience in deep learning. Two core general development strategies stood out for highly-ranked teams: the reflection of the metrics in the method design and the focus on analyzing and handling failure cases. According to the organizers, 43% of the winning algorithms exceeded the state of the art but only 11% completely solved the respective domain problem. The insights of our study could help researchers (1) improve algorithm development strategies when approaching new problems, and (2) focus on open research questions revealed by this work.

Maria Grammatikopoulou, Ricardo Sanchez-Matilla, Felix Bragman et al.

Semantic segmentation in surgical videos has applications in intra-operative guidance, post-operative analytics and surgical education. Segmentation models need to provide accurate and consistent predictions since temporally inconsistent identification of anatomical structures can impair usability and hinder patient safety. Video information can alleviate these challenges leading to reliable models suitable for clinical use. We propose a novel architecture for modelling temporal relationships in videos. The proposed model includes a spatio-temporal decoder to enable video semantic segmentation by improving temporal consistency across frames. The encoder processes individual frames whilst the decoder processes a temporal batch of adjacent frames. The proposed decoder can be used on top of any segmentation encoder to improve temporal consistency. Model performance was evaluated on the CholecSeg8k dataset and a private dataset of robotic Partial Nephrectomy procedures. Segmentation performance was improved when the temporal decoder was applied across both datasets. The proposed model also displayed improvements in temporal consistency.

Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Ege Erdil et al. · harvard, stanford

We investigate the rate at which algorithms for pre-training language models have improved since the advent of deep learning. Using a dataset of over 200 language model evaluations on Wikitext and Penn Treebank spanning 2012-2023, we find that the compute required to reach a set performance threshold has halved approximately every 8 months, with a 95% confidence interval of around 5 to 14 months, substantially faster than hardware gains per Moore's Law. We estimate augmented scaling laws, which enable us to quantify algorithmic progress and determine the relative contributions of scaling models versus innovations in training algorithms. Despite the rapid pace of algorithmic progress and the development of new architectures such as the transformer, our analysis reveals that the increase in compute made an even larger contribution to overall performance improvements over this time period. Though limited by noisy benchmark data, our analysis quantifies the rapid progress in language modeling, shedding light on the relative contributions from compute and algorithms.

David Owen

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

David Owen, Ping-Lin Chang

Reflections in natural images commonly cause false positives in automated detection systems. These false positives can lead to significant impairment of accuracy in the tasks of detection, counting and segmentation. Here, inspired by the recent panoptic approach to segmentation, we show how fusing instance and semantic segmentation can automatically identify reflection false positives, without explicitly needing to have the reflective regions labelled. We explore in detail how state of the art two-stage detectors suffer a loss of broader contextual features, and hence are unable to learn to ignore these reflections. We then present an approach to fuse instance and semantic segmentations for this application, and subsequently show how this reduces false positive detections in a real world surveillance data with a large number of reflective surfaces. This demonstrates how panoptic segmentation and related work, despite being in its infancy, can already be useful in real world computer vision problems.