Xingye Qiao

Zhou Wang, Xingye Qiao

Set-valued classification, a new classification paradigm that aims to identify all the plausible classes that an observation belongs to, can be obtained by learning the acceptance regions for all classes. Many existing set-valued classification methods do not consider the possibility that a new class that never appeared in the training data appears in the test data. Moreover, they are computationally expensive when the number of classes is large. We propose a Generalized Prediction Set (GPS) approach to estimate the acceptance regions while considering the possibility of a new class in the test data. The proposed classifier minimizes the expected size of the prediction set while guaranteeing that the class-specific accuracy is at least a pre-specified value. Unlike previous methods, the proposed method achieves a good balance between accuracy, efficiency, and anomaly detection rate. Moreover, our method can be applied in parallel to all the classes to alleviate the computational burden. Both theoretical analysis and numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Haomiao Meng, Ying-Qi Zhao, Haoda Fu et al.

Individualized treatment recommendation (ITR) is an important analytic framework for precision medicine. The goal is to assign proper treatments to patients based on their individual characteristics. From the machine learning perspective, the solution to an ITR problem can be formulated as a weighted classification problem to maximize the average benefit that patients receive from the recommended treatments. Several methods have been proposed for ITR in both binary and multicategory treatment setups. In practice, one may prefer a more flexible recommendation with multiple treatment options. This motivates us to develop methods to obtain a set of near-optimal individualized treatment recommendations alternative to each other, called alternative individualized treatment recommendations (A-ITR). We propose two methods to estimate the optimal A-ITR within the outcome weighted learning (OWL) framework. We show the consistency of these methods and obtain an upper bound for the risk between the theoretically optimal recommendation and the estimated one. We also conduct simulation studies, and apply our methods to a real data set for Type 2 diabetic patients with injectable antidiabetic treatments. These numerical studies have shown the usefulness of the proposed A-ITR framework. We develop a R package aitr which can be found at https://github.com/menghaomiao/aitr.

Baozhen Wang, Xingye Qiao

In an era where diverse and complex data are increasingly accessible, the precise prediction of individual treatment effects (ITE) becomes crucial across fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. Current state-of-the-art approaches, while providing valid prediction intervals through Conformal Quantile Regression (CQR) and related techniques, often yield overly conservative prediction intervals. In this work, we introduce a conformal inference approach to ITE using the conditional density of the outcome given the covariates. We leverage the reference distribution technique to efficiently estimate the conditional densities as the score functions under a two-stage conformal ITE framework. We show that our prediction intervals are not only marginally valid but are narrower than existing methods. Experimental results further validate the usefulness of our method.

Zhou Wang, Xingye Qiao

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free method that wraps a given machine learning model and returns a set of plausible labels that contain the true label with a prescribed coverage rate. In practice, the empirical coverage achieved highly relies on fully observed label information from data both in the training phase for model fitting and the calibration phase for quantile estimation. This dependency poses a challenge in the context of online learning with bandit feedback, where a learner only has access to the correctness of actions (i.e., pulled an arm) but not the full information of the true label. In particular, when the pulled arm is incorrect, the learner only knows that the pulled one is not the true class label, but does not know which label is true. Additionally, bandit feedback further results in a smaller labeled dataset for calibration, limited to instances with correct actions, thereby affecting the accuracy of quantile estimation. To address these limitations, we propose Bandit Class-specific Conformal Prediction (BCCP), offering coverage guarantees on a class-specific granularity. Using an unbiased estimation of an estimand involving the true label, BCCP trains the model and makes set-valued inferences through stochastic gradient descent. Our approach overcomes the challenges of sparsely labeled data in each iteration and generalizes the reliability and applicability of conformal prediction to online decision-making environments.

Baozhen Wang, Xingye Qiao

In many real applications of statistical learning, collecting sufficiently many training data is often expensive, time-consuming, or even unrealistic. In this case, a transfer learning approach, which aims to leverage knowledge from a related source domain to improve the learning performance in the target domain, is more beneficial. There have been many transfer learning methods developed under various distributional assumptions. In this article, we study a particular type of classification problem, called conformal prediction, under a new distributional assumption for transfer learning. Classifiers under the conformal prediction framework predict a set of plausible labels instead of one single label for each data instance, affording a more cautious and safer decision. We consider a generalization of the \textit{covariate shift with posterior drift} setting for transfer learning. Under this setting, we propose a weighted conformal classifier that leverages both the source and target samples, with a coverage guarantee in the target domain. Theoretical studies demonstrate favorable asymptotic properties. Numerical studies further illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method.

Jiexin Duan, Xingye Qiao, Guang Cheng

In machine learning, crowdsourcing is an economical way to label a large amount of data. However, the noise in the produced labels may deteriorate the accuracy of any classification method applied to the labelled data. We propose an enhanced nearest neighbor classifier (ENN) to overcome this issue. Two algorithms are developed to estimate the worker quality (which is often unknown in practice): one is to construct the estimate based on the denoised worker labels by applying the $k$NN classifier to the expert data; the other is an iterative algorithm that works even without access to the expert data. Other than strong numerical evidence, our proposed methods are proven to achieve the same regret as its oracle version based on high-quality expert data. As a technical by-product, a lower bound on the sample size assigned to each worker to reach the optimal convergence rate of regret is derived.

Zhao Ren, Sungkyu Jung, Xingye Qiao

Set classification aims to classify a set of observations as a whole, as opposed to classifying individual observations separately. To formally understand the unfamiliar concept of binary set classification, we first investigate the optimal decision rule under the normal distribution, which utilizes the empirical covariance of the set to be classified. We show that the number of observations in the set plays a critical role in bounding the Bayes risk. Under this framework, we further propose new methods of set classification. For the case where only a few parameters of the model drive the difference between two classes, we propose a computationally-efficient approach to parameter estimation using linear programming, leading to the Covariance-engaged LInear Programming Set (CLIPS) classifier. Its theoretical properties are investigated for both independent case and various (short-range and long-range dependent) time series structures among observations within each set. The convergence rates of estimation errors and risk of the CLIPS classifier are established to show that having multiple observations in a set leads to faster convergence rates, compared to the standard classification situation in which there is only one observation in the set. The applicable domains in which the CLIPS performs better than competitors are highlighted in a comprehensive simulation study. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methods in classification of real image data in histopathology.

Andrew Cohen, Lei Yu, Xingye Qiao et al.

Two hitherto disconnected threads of research, diverse exploration (DE) and maximum entropy RL have addressed a wide range of problems facing reinforcement learning algorithms via ostensibly distinct mechanisms. In this work, we identify a connection between these two approaches. First, a discriminator-based diversity objective is put forward and connected to commonly used divergence measures. We then extend this objective to the maximum entropy framework and propose an algorithm Maximum Entropy Diverse Exploration (MEDE) which provides a principled method to learn diverse behaviors. A theoretical investigation shows that the set of policies learned by MEDE capture the same modalities as the optimal maximum entropy policy. In effect, the proposed algorithm disentangles the maximum entropy policy into its diverse, constituent policies. Experiments show that MEDE is superior to the state of the art in learning high performing and diverse policies.

Xingye Qiao, Jiexin Duan, Guang Cheng

Nearest neighbor is a popular class of classification methods with many desirable properties. For a large data set which cannot be loaded into the memory of a single machine due to computation, communication, privacy, or ownership limitations, we consider the divide and conquer scheme: the entire data set is divided into small subsamples, on which nearest neighbor predictions are made, and then a final decision is reached by aggregating the predictions on subsamples by majority voting. We name this method the big Nearest Neighbor (bigNN) classifier, and provide its rates of convergence under minimal assumptions, in terms of both the excess risk and the classification instability, which are proven to be the same rates as the oracle nearest neighbor classifier and cannot be improved. To significantly reduce the prediction time that is required for achieving the optimal rate, we also consider the pre-training acceleration technique applied to the bigNN method, with proven convergence rate. We find that in the distributed setting, the optimal choice of the neighbor $k$ should scale with both the total sample size and the number of partitions, and there is a theoretical upper limit for the latter. Numerical studies have verified the theoretical findings.

Angel Beltre, Shehtab Zaman, Kenneth Chiu et al.

Accurate estimation of the run time of computational codes has a number of significant advantages for scientific computing. It is required information for optimal resource allocation, improving turnaround times and utilization of science gateways. Furthermore, it allows users to better plan and schedule their research, streamlining workflows and improving the overall productivity of cyberinfrastructure. Predicting run time is challenging, however. The inputs to scientific codes can be complex and high dimensional. Their relationship to the run time may be highly non-linear, and, in the most general case is completely arbitrary and thus unpredictable (i.e., simply a random mapping from inputs to run time). Most codes are not so arbitrary, however, and there has been significant prior research on predicting the run time of applications and workloads. Such predictions are generally application-specific, however. In this paper, we focus on the Gaussian computational chemistry code. We characterize a data set of runs from the SEAGrid science gateway with a number of different studies. We also explore a number of different potential regression methods and present promising future directions.

Andrew Cohen, Xingye Qiao, Lei Yu et al.

We address the challenge of effective exploration while maintaining good performance in policy gradient methods. As a solution, we propose diverse exploration (DE) via conjugate policies. DE learns and deploys a set of conjugate policies which can be conveniently generated as a byproduct of conjugate gradient descent. We provide both theoretical and empirical results showing the effectiveness of DE at achieving exploration, improving policy performance, and the advantage of DE over exploration by random policy perturbations.

Wenbo Wang, Xingye Qiao

The goal of confidence-set learning in the binary classification setting is to construct two sets, each with a specific probability guarantee to cover a class. An observation outside the overlap of the two sets is deemed to be from one of the two classes, while the overlap is an ambiguity region which could belong to either class. Instead of plug-in approaches, we propose a support vector classifier to construct confidence sets in a flexible manner. Theoretically, we show that the proposed learner can control the non-coverage rates and minimize the ambiguity with high probability. Efficient algorithms are developed and numerical studies illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Chong Zhang, Wenbo Wang, Xingye Qiao

In many real applications of statistical learning, a decision made from misclassification can be too costly to afford; in this case, a reject option, which defers the decision until further investigation is conducted, is often preferred. In recent years, there has been much development for binary classification with a reject option. Yet, little progress has been made for the multicategory case. In this article, we propose margin-based multicategory classification methods with a reject option. In addition, and more importantly, we introduce a new and unique refine option for the multicategory problem, where the class of an observation is predicted to be from a set of class labels, whose cardinality is not necessarily one. The main advantage of both options lies in their capacity of identifying error-prone observations. Moreover, the refine option can provide more constructive information for classification by effectively ruling out implausible classes. Efficient implementations have been developed for the proposed methods. On the theoretical side, we offer a novel statistical learning theory and show a fast convergence rate of the excess $\ell$-risk of our methods with emphasis on diverging dimensionality and number of classes. The results can be further improved under a low noise assumption. A set of comprehensive simulation and real data studies has shown the usefulness of the new learning tools compared to regular multicategory classifiers. Detailed proofs of theorems and extended numerical results are included in the supplemental materials available online.

Qiyi Lu, Xingye Qiao

Classification and clustering are both important topics in statistical learning. A natural question herein is whether predefined classes are really different from one another, or whether clusters are really there. Specifically, we may be interested in knowing whether the two classes defined by some class labels (when they are provided), or the two clusters tagged by a clustering algorithm (where class labels are not provided), are from the same underlying distribution. Although both are challenging questions for the high-dimensional, low-sample size data, there has been some recent development for both. However, when it is costly to manually place labels on observations, it is often that only a small portion of the class labels is available. In this article, we propose a significance analysis approach for such type of data, namely partially labeled data. Our method makes use of the whole data and tries to test the class difference as if all the labels were observed. Compared to a testing method that ignores the label information, our method provides a greater power, meanwhile, maintaining the size, illustrated by a comprehensive simulation study. Theoretical properties of the proposed method are studied with emphasis on the high-dimensional, low-sample size setting. Our simulated examples help to understand when and how the information extracted from the labeled data can be effective. A real data example further illustrates the usefulness of the proposed method.

Qiyi Lu, Xingye Qiao

Classification is an important tool with many useful applications. Among the many classification methods, Fisher's Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) is a traditional model-based approach which makes use of the covariance information. However, in the high-dimensional, low-sample size setting, LDA cannot be directly deployed because the sample covariance is not invertible. While there are modern methods designed to deal with high-dimensional data, they may not fully use the covariance information as LDA does. Hence in some situations, it is still desirable to use a model-based method such as LDA for classification. This article exploits the potential of LDA in more complicated data settings. In many real applications, it is costly to manually place labels on observations; hence it is often that only a small portion of labeled data is available while a large number of observations are left without a label. It is a great challenge to obtain good classification performance through the labeled data alone, especially when the dimension is greater than the size of the labeled data. In order to overcome this issue, we propose a semi-supervised sparse LDA classifier to take advantage of the seemingly useless unlabeled data. They provide additional information which helps to boost the classification performance in some situations. A direct estimation method is used to reconstruct LDA and achieve the sparsity; meanwhile we employ the difference-convex algorithm to handle the non-convex loss function associated with the unlabeled data. Theoretical properties of the proposed classifier are studied. Our simulated examples help to understand when and how the information extracted from the unlabeled data can be useful. A real data example further illustrates the usefulness of the proposed method.

Xingye Qiao

Ordinal data are often seen in real applications. Regular multicategory classification methods are not designed for this data type and a more proper treatment is needed. We consider a framework of ordinal classification which pools the results from binary classifiers together. An inherent difficulty of this framework is that the class prediction can be ambiguous due to boundary crossing. To fix this issue, we propose a noncrossing ordinal classification method which materializes the framework by imposing noncrossing constraints. An asymptotic study of the proposed method is conducted. We show by simulated and data examples that the proposed method can improve the classification performance for ordinal data without the ambiguity caused by boundary crossings.

Wei Sun, Xingye Qiao, Guang Cheng

The stability of statistical analysis is an important indicator for reproducibility, which is one main principle of scientific method. It entails that similar statistical conclusions can be reached based on independent samples from the same underlying population. In this paper, we introduce a general measure of classification instability (CIS) to quantify the sampling variability of the prediction made by a classification method. Interestingly, the asymptotic CIS of any weighted nearest neighbor classifier turns out to be proportional to the Euclidean norm of its weight vector. Based on this concise form, we propose a stabilized nearest neighbor (SNN) classifier, which distinguishes itself from other nearest neighbor classifiers, by taking the stability into consideration. In theory, we prove that SNN attains the minimax optimal convergence rate in risk, and a sharp convergence rate in CIS. The latter rate result is established for general plug-in classifiers under a low-noise condition. Extensive simulated and real examples demonstrate that SNN achieves a considerable improvement in CIS over existing nearest neighbor classifiers, with comparable classification accuracy. We implement the algorithm in a publicly available R package snn.

Sungkyu Jung, Xingye Qiao

Set classification problems arise when classification tasks are based on sets of observations as opposed to individual observations. In set classification, a classification rule is trained with $N$ sets of observations, where each set is labeled with class information, and the prediction of a class label is performed also with a set of observations. Data sets for set classification appear, for example, in diagnostics of disease based on multiple cell nucleus images from a single tissue. Relevant statistical models for set classification are introduced, which motivate a set classification framework based on context-free feature extraction. By understanding a set of observations as an empirical distribution, we employ a data-driven method to choose those features which contain information on location and major variation. In particular, the method of principal component analysis is used to extract the features of major variation. Multidimensional scaling is used to represent features as vector-valued points on which conventional classifiers can be applied. The proposed set classification approaches achieve better classification results than competing methods in a number of simulated data examples. The benefits of our method are demonstrated in an analysis of histopathology images of cell nuclei related to liver cancer.

Xingye Qiao, Lingsong Zhang

Classification is an important topic in statistics and machine learning with great potential in many real applications. In this paper, we investigate two popular large margin classification methods, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Distance Weighted Discrimination (DWD), under two contexts: the high-dimensional, low-sample size data and the imbalanced data. A unified family of classification machines, the FLexible Assortment MachinE (FLAME) is proposed, within which DWD and SVM are special cases. The FLAME family helps to identify the similarities and differences between SVM and DWD. It is well known that many classifiers overfit the data in the high-dimensional setting; and others are sensitive to the imbalanced data, that is, the class with a larger sample size overly influences the classifier and pushes the decision boundary towards the minority class. SVM is resistant to the imbalanced data issue, but it overfits high-dimensional data sets by showing the undesired data-piling phenomena. The DWD method was proposed to improve SVM in the high-dimensional setting, but its decision boundary is sensitive to the imbalanced ratio of sample sizes. Our FLAME family helps to understand an intrinsic connection between SVM and DWD, and improves both methods by providing a better trade-off between sensitivity to the imbalanced data and overfitting the high-dimensional data. Several asymptotic properties of the FLAME classifiers are studied. Simulations and real data applications are investigated to illustrate the usefulness of the FLAME classifiers.

Xingye Qiao, Lingsong Zhang

A novel linear classification method that possesses the merits of both the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and the Distance-weighted Discrimination (DWD) is proposed in this article. The proposed Distance-weighted Support Vector Machine method can be viewed as a hybrid of SVM and DWD that finds the classification direction by minimizing mainly the DWD loss, and determines the intercept term in the SVM manner. We show that our method inheres the merit of DWD, and hence, overcomes the data-piling and overfitting issue of SVM. On the other hand, the new method is not subject to imbalanced data issue which was a main advantage of SVM over DWD. It uses an unusual loss which combines the Hinge loss (of SVM) and the DWD loss through a trick of axillary hyperplane. Several theoretical properties, including Fisher consistency and asymptotic normality of the DWSVM solution are developed. We use some simulated examples to show that the new method can compete DWD and SVM on both classification performance and interpretability. A real data application further establishes the usefulness of our approach.