Stuart A. Burrell

Parameswaran Kamalaruban, Yulu Pi, Stuart Burrell et al.

Ensuring fairness in transaction fraud detection models is vital due to the potential harms and legal implications of biased decision-making. Despite extensive research on algorithmic fairness, there is a notable gap in the study of bias in fraud detection models, mainly due to the field's unique challenges. These challenges include the need for fairness metrics that account for fraud data's imbalanced nature and the tradeoff between fraud protection and service quality. To address this gap, we present a comprehensive fairness evaluation of transaction fraud models using public synthetic datasets, marking the first algorithmic bias audit in this domain. Our findings reveal three critical insights: (1) Certain fairness metrics expose significant bias only after normalization, highlighting the impact of class imbalance. (2) Bias is significant in both service quality-related parity metrics and fraud protection-related parity metrics. (3) The fairness through unawareness approach, which involved removing sensitive attributes such as gender, does not improve bias mitigation within these datasets, likely due to the presence of correlated proxies. We also discuss socio-technical fairness-related challenges in transaction fraud models. These insights underscore the need for a nuanced approach to fairness in fraud detection, balancing protection and service quality, and moving beyond simple bias mitigation strategies. Future work must focus on refining fairness metrics and developing methods tailored to the unique complexities of the transaction fraud domain.

Piotr Skalski, David Sutton, Stuart Burrell et al.

Machine learning models underpin many modern financial systems for use cases such as fraud detection and churn prediction. Most are based on supervised learning with hand-engineered features, which relies heavily on the availability of labelled data. Large self-supervised generative models have shown tremendous success in natural language processing and computer vision, yet so far they haven't been adapted to multivariate time series of financial transactions. In this paper, we present a generative pretraining method that can be used to obtain contextualised embeddings of financial transactions. Benchmarks on public datasets demonstrate that it outperforms state-of-the-art self-supervised methods on a range of downstream tasks. We additionally perform large-scale pretraining of an embedding model using a corpus of data from 180 issuing banks containing 5.1 billion transactions and apply it to the card fraud detection problem on hold-out datasets. The embedding model significantly improves value detection rate at high precision thresholds and transfers well to out-of-domain distributions.

Tom Kempton, Stuart Burrell

Advances in hardware and language model architecture have spurred a revolution in natural language generation. However, autoregressive models compute probability distributions over next-token choices, and sampling from these distributions, known as decoding, has received significantly less attention than other design choices. Existing decoding strategies are largely based on heuristics, resulting in methods that are difficult to apply or improve in a principled manner. We develop the theory of decoding strategies for language models by expressing popular decoding algorithms as equilibrium states in the language of ergodic theory and stating the objective functions they optimize. Using this, we analyze the effect of the local normalization step required to make probabilities sum to one in top-k, nucleus, and temperature sampling. We argue that local normalization distortion is a fundamental defect of decoding strategies and quantify the size of this distortion and its effect on mathematical proxies for the quality and diversity of generated text. This yields conclusions for the design of decoding algorithms and the detection of machine-generated text.

Tom Kempton, Stuart Burrell, Connor Cheverall

Existing methods for the zero-shot detection of machine-generated text are dominated by three statistical quantities: log-likelihood, log-rank, and entropy. As language models mimic the distribution of human text ever closer, this will limit our ability to build effective detection algorithms. To combat this, we introduce a method for detecting machine-generated text that is entirely agnostic of the generating language model. This is achieved by targeting a defect in the way that decoding strategies, such as temperature or top-k sampling, normalize conditional probability measures. This method can be rigorously theoretically justified, is easily explainable, and is conceptually distinct from existing methods for detecting machine-generated text. We evaluate our detector in the white and black box settings across various language models, datasets, and passage lengths. We also study the effect of paraphrasing attacks on our detector and the extent to which it is biased against non-native speakers. In each of these settings, the performance of our test is at least comparable to that of other state-of-the-art text detectors, and in some cases, we strongly outperform these baselines.

Iker Perez, Jason Wong, Piotr Skalski et al.

Global financial crime activity is driving demand for machine learning solutions in fraud prevention. However, prevention systems are commonly serviced to financial institutions in isolation, and few provisions exist for data sharing due to fears of unintentional leaks and adversarial attacks. Collaborative learning advances in finance are rare, and it is hard to find real-world insights derived from privacy-preserving data processing systems. In this paper, we present a collaborative deep learning framework for fraud prevention, designed from a privacy standpoint, and awarded at the recent PETs Prize Challenges. We leverage latent embedded representations of varied-length transaction sequences, along with local differential privacy, in order to construct a data release mechanism which can securely inform externally hosted fraud and anomaly detection models. We assess our contribution on two distributed data sets donated by large payment networks, and demonstrate robustness to popular inference-time attacks, along with utility-privacy trade-offs analogous to published work in alternative application domains.