Gareth O. Roberts

Alain Durmus, Gareth O. Roberts, Gilles Vilmart et al.

We introduce new Gaussian proposals to improve the efficiency of the standard Hastings-Metropolis algorithm in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, used for the sampling from a target distribution in large dimension $d$. The improved complexity is $\mathcal{O}(d^{1/5})$ compared to the complexity $\mathcal{O}(d^{1/3})$ of the standard approach. We prove an asymptotic diffusion limit theorem and show that the relative efficiency of the algorithm can be characterised by its overall acceptance rate (with asymptotical value 0.704), independently of the target distribution. Numerical experiments confirm our theoretical findings.

Andrea Bertazzi, Tim Johnston, Gareth O. Roberts et al.

This paper aims to provide differential privacy (DP) guarantees for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In a first part, we establish DP guarantees on samples output by MCMC algorithms as well as Monte Carlo estimators associated with these methods under assumptions on the convergence properties of the underlying Markov chain. In particular, our results highlight the critical condition of ensuring the target distribution is differentially private itself. In a second part, we specialise our analysis to the unadjusted Langevin algorithm and stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics and establish guarantees on their (Rényi) DP. To this end, we develop a novel methodology based on Girsanov's theorem combined with a perturbation trick to obtain bounds for an unbounded domain and in a non-convex setting. We establish: (i) uniform in $n$ privacy guarantees when the state of the chain after $n$ iterations is released, (ii) bounds on the privacy of the entire chain trajectory. These findings provide concrete guidelines for privacy-preserving MCMC.

Paul Fearnhead, Sebastiano Grazzi, Chris Nemeth et al.

Recent work has suggested using Monte Carlo methods based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) to sample from target distributions of interest. PDMPs are non-reversible continuous-time processes endowed with momentum, and hence can mix better than standard reversible MCMC samplers. Furthermore, they can incorporate exact sub-sampling schemes which only require access to a single (randomly selected) data point at each iteration, yet without introducing bias to the algorithm's stationary distribution. However, the range of models for which PDMPs can be used, particularly with sub-sampling, is limited. We propose approximate simulation of PDMPs with sub-sampling for scalable sampling from posterior distributions. The approximation takes the form of an Euler approximation to the true PDMP dynamics, and involves using an estimate of the gradient of the log-posterior based on a data sub-sample. We thus call this class of algorithms stochastic-gradient PDMPs. Importantly, the trajectories of stochastic-gradient PDMPs are continuous and can leverage recent ideas for sampling from measures with continuous and atomic components. We show these methods are easy to implement, present results on their approximation error and demonstrate numerically that this class of algorithms has similar efficiency to, but is more robust than, stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics.

Ryan S. Y. Chan, Murray Pollock, Adam M. Johansen et al.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

Omiros Papaspiliopoulos, Gareth O. Roberts, Giacomo Zanella

We analyze the complexity of Gibbs samplers for inference in crossed random effect models used in modern analysis of variance. We demonstrate that for certain designs the plain vanilla Gibbs sampler is not scalable, in the sense that its complexity is worse than proportional to the number of parameters and data. We thus propose a simple modification leading to a collapsed Gibbs sampler that is provably scalable. Although our theory requires some balancedness assumptions on the data designs, we demonstrate in simulated and real datasets that the rates it predicts match remarkably the correct rates in cases where the assumptions are violated. We also show that the collapsed Gibbs sampler, extended to sample further unknown hyperparameters, outperforms significantly alternative state of the art algorithms.

Alexandros Beskos, Natesh S. Pillai, Gareth O. Roberts et al.

We investigate the properties of the Hybrid Monte-Carlo algorithm (HMC) in high dimensions. HMC develops a Markov chain reversible w.r.t. a given target distribution $Π$ by using separable Hamiltonian dynamics with potential $-\logΠ$. The additional momentum variables are chosen at random from the Boltzmann distribution and the continuous-time Hamiltonian dynamics are then discretised using the leapfrog scheme. The induced bias is removed via a Metropolis-Hastings accept/reject rule. In the simplified scenario of independent, identically distributed components, we prove that, to obtain an $\mathcal{O}(1)$ acceptance probability as the dimension $d$ of the state space tends to $\infty$, the leapfrog step-size $h$ should be scaled as $h= l \times d^{-1/4}$. Therefore, in high dimensions, HMC requires $\mathcal{O}(d^{1/4})$ steps to traverse the state space. We also identify analytically the asymptotically optimal acceptance probability, which turns out to be 0.651 (to three decimal places). This is the choice which optimally balances the cost of generating a proposal, which {\em decreases} as $l$ increases, against the cost related to the average number of proposals required to obtain acceptance, which {\em increases} as $l$ increases.