Dan Pei

Haotian Si, Changhua Pei, Zhihan Li et al.

Massive key performance indicators (KPIs) are monitored as multivariate time series data (MTS) to ensure the reliability of the software applications and service system. Accurately detecting the abnormality of MTS is very critical for subsequent fault elimination. The scarcity of anomalies and manual labeling has led to the development of various self-supervised MTS anomaly detection (AD) methods, which optimize an overall objective/loss encompassing all metrics' regression objectives/losses. However, our empirical study uncovers the prevalence of conflicts among metrics' regression objectives, causing MTS models to grapple with different losses. This critical aspect significantly impacts detection performance but has been overlooked in existing approaches. To address this problem, by mimicking the design of multi-gate mixture-of-experts (MMoE), we introduce CAD, a Conflict-aware multivariate KPI Anomaly Detection algorithm. CAD offers an exclusive structure for each metric to mitigate potential conflicts while fostering inter-metric promotions. Upon thorough investigation, we find that the poor performance of vanilla MMoE mainly comes from the input-output misalignment settings of MTS formulation and convergence issues arising from expansive tasks. To address these challenges, we propose a straightforward yet effective task-oriented metric selection and p&s (personalized and shared) gating mechanism, which establishes CAD as the first practicable multi-task learning (MTL) based MTS AD model. Evaluations on multiple public datasets reveal that CAD obtains an average F1-score of 0.943 across three public datasets, notably outperforming state-of-the-art methods. Our code is accessible at https://github.com/dawnvince/MTS_CAD.

Changhua Pei, Zheyuan Li, Zexin Wang et al.

When networked system failures occur, automatically performing Root Cause Analysis (RCA) using observability data is critical for ensuring networked system reliability. Recently, LLM-based agents have shown promise for automating this diagnosis process through advanced reasoning and autonomous exploration. However, existing observability frameworks remain archaic, characterized by fragmented data silos, incompatible schemas, and insufficient semantic metadata, preventing agents from establishing the complex relationships required for effective RCA. To address these challenges, we present UModel, a unified ontological framework that shifts observability from data-centric to object-centric modeling. UModel constructs a virtual ontological layer where heterogeneous telemetry, entities, and expert knowledge are standardized as objects and interconnected via semantic graphs. In addition, we introduce U-SPL, a pipeline-based query interface that enables agents to autonomously explore system topologies and correlate multimodal data. By re-modeling the "AIOps 2025 Challenge" dataset using UModel, the precision of root cause localization improved by 8%, demonstrating that enhanced data organization can significantly increase the accuracy of downstream tasks. UModel provides a scalable modeling framework that, in its deployment at Alibaba Cloud for more than one year, has served tens of thousands of users, sustained millions of operations per second, and delivered sub-second query latency.

Yuhe Liu, Changhua Pei, Longlong Xu et al.

Information Technology (IT) Operations (Ops), particularly Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations (AIOps), is the guarantee for maintaining the orderly and stable operation of existing information systems. According to Gartner's prediction, the use of AI technology for automated IT operations has become a new trend. Large language models (LLMs) that have exhibited remarkable capabilities in NLP-related tasks, are showing great potential in the field of AIOps, such as in aspects of root cause analysis of failures, generation of operations and maintenance scripts, and summarizing of alert information. Nevertheless, the performance of current LLMs in Ops tasks is yet to be determined. In this paper, we present OpsEval, a comprehensive task-oriented Ops benchmark designed for LLMs. For the first time, OpsEval assesses LLMs' proficiency in various crucial scenarios at different ability levels. The benchmark includes 7184 multi-choice questions and 1736 question-answering (QA) formats in English and Chinese. By conducting a comprehensive performance evaluation of the current leading large language models, we show how various LLM techniques can affect the performance of Ops, and discussed findings related to various topics, including model quantification, QA evaluation, and hallucination issues. To ensure the credibility of our evaluation, we invite dozens of domain experts to manually review our questions. At the same time, we have open-sourced 20% of the test QA to assist current researchers in preliminary evaluations of their OpsLLM models. The remaining 80% of the data, which is not disclosed, is used to eliminate the issue of the test set leakage. Additionally, we have constructed an online leaderboard that is updated in real-time and will continue to be updated, ensuring that any newly emerging LLMs will be evaluated promptly. Both our dataset and leaderboard have been made public.

Mingjie Li, Zeyan Li, Kanglin Yin et al.

Fault diagnosis is critical in many domains, as faults may lead to safety threats or economic losses. In the field of online service systems, operators rely on enormous monitoring data to detect and mitigate failures. Quickly recognizing a small set of root cause indicators for the underlying fault can save much time for failure mitigation. In this paper, we formulate the root cause analysis problem as a new causal inference task named intervention recognition. We proposed a novel unsupervised causal inference-based method named Causal Inference-based Root Cause Analysis (CIRCA). The core idea is a sufficient condition for a monitoring variable to be a root cause indicator, i.e., the change of probability distribution conditioned on the parents in the Causal Bayesian Network (CBN). Towards the application in online service systems, CIRCA constructs a graph among monitoring metrics based on the knowledge of system architecture and a set of causal assumptions. The simulation study illustrates the theoretical reliability of CIRCA. The performance on a real-world dataset further shows that CIRCA can improve the recall of the top-1 recommendation by 25% over the best baseline method.

Shenglin Zhang, Pengtian Zhu, Minghua Ma et al.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at general question-answering (Q&A) but often fall short in specialized domains due to a lack of domain-specific knowledge. Commercial companies face the dual challenges of privacy protection and resource constraints when involving LLMs for fine-tuning. This paper propose a novel framework, Self-Evolution, designed to address these issues by leveraging lightweight open-source LLMs through multiple iterative fine-tuning rounds. To enhance the efficiency of iterative fine-tuning, Self-Evolution employ a strategy that filters and reinforces the knowledge with higher value during the iterative process. We employed Self-Evolution on Qwen1.5-7B-Chat using 4,000 documents containing rich domain knowledge from China Mobile, achieving a performance score 174% higher on domain-specific question-answering evaluations than Qwen1.5-7B-Chat and even 22% higher than Qwen1.5-72B-Chat. Self-Evolution has been deployed in China Mobile's daily operation and maintenance for 117 days, and it improves the efficiency of locating alarms, fixing problems, and finding related reports, with an average efficiency improvement of over 18.6%. In addition, we release Self-Evolution framework code in https://github.com/Zero-Pointer/Self-Evolution.

Zexin Wang, Changhua Pei, Yuanhao Liu et al.

As the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) continue to advance, LLM-based agent systems offer advantages in flexibility and interpretability over traditional systems, garnering increasing attention. However, despite the widespread research interest and industrial application of agent systems, these systems, like their traditional counterparts, frequently encounter anomalies. These anomalies lead to instability and insecurity, hindering their further development. Therefore, a comprehensive and systematic approach to the operation and maintenance of agent systems is urgently needed. Unfortunately, current research on the operations of agent systems is sparse. To address this gap, we have undertaken a survey on agent system operations with the aim of establishing a clear framework for the field, defining the challenges, and facilitating further development. Specifically, this paper begins by systematically defining anomalies within agent systems, categorizing them into intra-agent anomalies and inter-agent anomalies. Next, we introduce a novel and comprehensive operational framework for agent systems, dubbed Agent System Operations (AgentOps). We provide detailed definitions and explanations of its four key stages: monitoring, anomaly detection, root cause localization, and resolution.

Zhenyu Zhong, Qiliang Fan, Jiacheng Zhang et al.

Internet-based services have seen remarkable success, generating vast amounts of monitored key performance indicators (KPIs) as univariate or multivariate time series. Monitoring and analyzing these time series are crucial for researchers, service operators, and on-call engineers to detect outliers or anomalies indicating service failures or significant events. Numerous advanced anomaly detection methods have emerged to address availability and performance issues. This review offers a comprehensive overview of time series anomaly detection in Artificial Intelligence for IT operations (AIOps), which uses AI capabilities to automate and optimize operational workflows. Additionally, it explores future directions for real-world and next-generation time-series anomaly detection based on recent advancements.

Chenyu Zhao, Shenglin Zhang, Zeshun Huang et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown growing potential in software engineering, yet few benchmarks evaluate their ability to repair software during migration across instruction set architectures (ISAs). Cross-ISA migration, such as between x86_64 and aarch64, requires handling complex dependencies, heterogeneous toolchains, and long build logs while ensuring executable verification. To address this challenge, we present Build-bench, an end-to-end benchmark that systematically evaluates the capability of LLMs to repair build failures in cross-ISA settings. Build-bench collects 268 real-world failed packages and integrates auxiliary tools including Structure Extraction, File Content Extraction, Content Modification, and Build Verification to support autonomous, tool-augmented reasoning. The repair process operates in an iterative loop where, upon failure, the model receives updated build logs and previous repair outcomes to refine subsequent attempts. Through a comparative evaluation across the studied models, Build-bench reveals that current models achieve a maximum build success rate of 63.19% and tool usage patterns differ significantly across models. By coupling real build environments with verifiable outcomes, Build-bench establishes the first architecture-aware benchmark for studying LLM-based software build and repair.

Tianyu Cui, Shiyu Ma, Ziang Chen et al.

Log analysis is crucial for ensuring the orderly and stable operation of information systems, particularly in the field of Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations (AIOps). Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant potential in natural language processing tasks. In the AIOps domain, they excel in tasks such as anomaly detection, root cause analysis of faults, operations and maintenance script generation, and alert information summarization. However, the performance of current LLMs in log analysis tasks remains inadequately validated. To address this gap, we introduce LogEval, a comprehensive benchmark suite designed to evaluate the capabilities of LLMs in various log analysis tasks for the first time. This benchmark covers tasks such as log parsing, log anomaly detection, log fault diagnosis, and log summarization. LogEval evaluates each task using 4,000 publicly available log data entries and employs 15 different prompts for each task to ensure a thorough and fair assessment. By rigorously evaluating leading LLMs, we demonstrate the impact of various LLM technologies on log analysis performance, focusing on aspects such as self-consistency and few-shot contextual learning. We also discuss findings related to model quantification, Chinese-English question-answering evaluation, and prompt engineering. These findings provide insights into the strengths and weaknesses of LLMs in multilingual environments and the effectiveness of different prompt strategies. Various evaluation methods are employed for different tasks to accurately measure the performance of LLMs in log analysis, ensuring a comprehensive assessment. The insights gained from LogEvals evaluation reveal the strengths and limitations of LLMs in log analysis tasks, providing valuable guidance for researchers and practitioners.

Yongqian Sun, Jiaju Wang, Zhengdan Li et al.

AIOps algorithms play a crucial role in the maintenance of microservice systems. Many previous benchmarks' performance leaderboard provides valuable guidance for selecting appropriate algorithms. However, existing AIOps benchmarks mainly utilize offline datasets to evaluate algorithms. They cannot consistently evaluate the performance of algorithms using real-time datasets, and the operation scenarios for evaluation are static, which is insufficient for effective algorithm selection. To address these issues, we propose an evaluation-consistent and scenario-oriented evaluation framework named MicroServo. The core idea is to build a live microservice benchmark to generate real-time datasets and consistently simulate the specific operation scenarios on it. MicroServo supports different leaderboards by selecting specific algorithms and datasets according to the operation scenarios. It also supports the deployment of various types of algorithms, enabling algorithms hot-plugging. At last, we test MicroServo with three typical microservice operation scenarios to demonstrate its efficiency and usability.

Zhe Xie, Zeyan Li, Xiao He et al.

Understanding time series is crucial for its application in real-world scenarios. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly applied to time series tasks, leveraging their strong language capabilities to enhance various applications. However, research on multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) for time series understanding and reasoning remains limited, primarily due to the scarcity of high-quality datasets that align time series with textual information. This paper introduces ChatTS, a novel MLLM designed for time series analysis. ChatTS treats time series as a modality, similar to how vision MLLMs process images, enabling it to perform both understanding and reasoning with time series. To address the scarcity of training data, we propose an attribute-based method for generating synthetic time series with detailed attribute descriptions. We further introduce Time Series Evol-Instruct, a novel approach that generates diverse time series Q&As, enhancing the model's reasoning capabilities. To the best of our knowledge, ChatTS is the first TS-MLLM that takes multivariate time series as input for understanding and reasoning, which is fine-tuned exclusively on synthetic datasets. We evaluate its performance using benchmark datasets with real-world data, including six alignment tasks and four reasoning tasks. Our results show that ChatTS significantly outperforms existing vision-based MLLMs (e.g., GPT-4o) and text/agent-based LLMs, achieving a 46.0% improvement in alignment tasks and a 25.8% improvement in reasoning tasks. We have open-sourced the source code, model checkpoint and datasets at https://github.com/NetManAIOps/ChatTS.

Haotian Si, Changhua Pei, Xiao He et al.

Driven by the increasingly complex and decision-oriented demands of time series analysis, we introduce the Semantic-Conditional Time Series Reasoning task, which extends conventional time series analysis beyond purely numerical modeling to incorporate contextual and semantic understanding. To further enhance the mode's reasoning capabilities on complex time series problems, we propose a two-round reinforcement learning framework: the first round strengthens the mode's perception of fundamental temporal primitives, while the second focuses on semantic-conditioned reasoning. The resulting model, KairosVL, achieves competitive performance across both synthetic and real-world tasks. Extensive experiments and ablation studies demonstrate that our framework not only boosts performance but also preserves intrinsic reasoning ability and significantly improves generalization to unseen scenarios. To summarize, our work highlights the potential of combining semantic reasoning with temporal modeling and provides a practical framework for real-world time series intelligence, which is in urgent demand.

Zhirui Zhang, Changhua Pei, Tianyi Gao et al.

In the time-series domain, an increasing number of works combine text with temporal data to leverage the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) for various downstream time-series understanding tasks. This enables a single model to flexibly perform tasks that previously required specialized models for each domain. However, these methods typically rely on text labels for supervision during training, biasing the model toward textual cues while potentially neglecting the full temporal features. Such a bias can lead to outputs that contradict the underlying time-series context. To address this issue, we construct the EvalTS benchmark, comprising 10 tasks across three difficulty levels, from fundamental temporal pattern recognition to complex real-world reasoning, to evaluate models under more challenging and realistic scenarios. We also propose TimeSense, a multimodal framework that makes LLMs proficient in time-series analysis by balancing textual reasoning with a preserved temporal sense. TimeSense incorporates a Temporal Sense module that reconstructs the input time-series within the model's context, ensuring that textual reasoning is grounded in the time-series dynamics. Moreover, to enhance spatial understanding of time-series data, we explicitly incorporate coordinate-based positional embeddings, which provide each time point with spatial context and enable the model to capture structural dependencies more effectively. Experimental results demonstrate that TimeSense achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple tasks, and it particularly outperforms existing methods on complex multi-dimensional time-series reasoning tasks.

Yu Luo, Rongchen Gao, Lu Teng et al.

Logical reasoning encompasses deduction, induction, and abduction. However, while Large Language Models (LLMs) have effectively mastered the former two, abductive reasoning remains significantly underexplored. Existing frameworks, predominantly designed for static deductive tasks, fail to generalize to abductive reasoning due to unstructured state representation and lack of explicit state control. Consequently, they are inevitably prone to Evidence Fabrication, Context Drift, Failed Backtracking, and Early Stopping. To bridge this gap, we introduce Graph of States (GoS), a general-purpose neuro-symbolic framework tailored for abductive tasks. GoS grounds multi-agent collaboration in a structured belief states, utilizing a causal graph to explicitly encode logical dependencies and a state machine to govern the valid transitions of the reasoning process. By dynamically aligning the reasoning focus with these symbolic constraints, our approach transforms aimless, unconstrained exploration into a convergent, directed search. Extensive evaluations on two real-world datasets demonstrate that GoS significantly outperforms all baselines, providing a robust solution for complex abductive tasks. Code repo and all prompts: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Graph-of-States-5B4E.

Mingjie Li, Xiaoying Bai, Minghua Ma et al.

Continuous Integration (CI) and Continuous Deployment (CD) are widely adopted in software engineering practice. In reality, the CI/CD pipeline execution is not yet reliably continuous because it is often interrupted by Docker build failures. However, the existing trial-and-error practice to detect faults is time-consuming. To timely detect Dockerfile faults, we propose a context-based pre-build analysis approach, named DockerMock, through mocking the execution of common Dockerfile instructions. A Dockerfile fault is declared when an instruction conflicts with the approximated and accumulated running context. By explicitly keeping track of whether the context is fuzzy, DockerMock strikes a good balance of detection precision and recall. We evaluated DockerMock with 53 faults in 41 Dockerfiles from open source projects on GitHub and 130 faults in 105 Dockerfiles from student course projects. On average, DockerMock detected 68.0% Dockerfile faults in these two datasets. While baseline hadolint detected 6.5%, and baseline BuildKit detected 60.5% without instruction execution. In the GitHub dataset, DockerMock reduces the number of builds to 47, outperforming that of hadolint (73) and BuildKit (74).

Weibin Meng, Federico Zaiter, Yuheng Huang et al.

Logs are one of the most valuable data sources for managing large-scale online services. After a failure is detected/diagnosed/predicted, operators still have to inspect the raw logs to gain a summarized view before take actions. However, manual or rule-based log summarization has become inefficient and ineffective. In this work, we propose LogSummary, an automatic, unsupervised end-to-end log summarization framework for online services. LogSummary obtains the summarized triples of important logs for a given log sequence. It integrates a novel information extraction method taking both semantic information and domain knowledge into consideration, with a new triple ranking approach using the global knowledge learned from all logs. Given the lack of a publicly-available gold standard for log summarization, we have manually labelled the summaries of four open-source log datasets and made them publicly available. The evaluation on these datasets as well as the case studies on real-world logs demonstrate that LogSummary produces a highly representative (average ROUGE F1 score of 0.741) summaries. We have packaged LogSummary into an open-source toolkit and hope that it can benefit for future NLP-powered summarization works.

Justin Cosentino, Federico Zaiter, Dan Pei et al.

Recent work on deep neural network pruning has shown there exist sparse subnetworks that achieve equal or improved accuracy, training time, and loss using fewer network parameters when compared to their dense counterparts. Orthogonal to pruning literature, deep neural networks are known to be susceptible to adversarial examples, which may pose risks in security- or safety-critical applications. Intuition suggests that there is an inherent trade-off between sparsity and robustness such that these characteristics could not co-exist. We perform an extensive empirical evaluation and analysis testing the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis with adversarial training and show this approach enables us to find sparse, robust neural networks. Code for reproducing experiments is available here: https://github.com/justincosentino/robust-sparse-networks.

Chenyu Zhao, Minghua Ma, Shenglin Zhang et al.

Frequent toolchain updates and growing ISA diversity have made system-level software package repair increasingly important. Diagnosing and repairing build failures remains challenging because failures involve heterogeneous evidence, dependency constraints, and architecture-specific build conventions. While recent LLM-based repair methods show promise for project-level source fixes, they struggle with system-level repair, where failures span multi-language artifacts such as build recipes, scripts, and source archives, and require iterative validation through external build services. In this paper, we first conduct a systematic empirical study of real-world system-level build failures. We find that 72% of failures stem from dependency and environment misconfigurations rather than isolated code defects, suggesting that effective repair must prioritize packaging logic and iterative feedback. Motivated by these insights, we propose EvidenT, an evidence-preserving repair framework that decouples iteration-aware evidence management from tool execution. EvidenT includes: (1) an external Build Service for reproducible execution and feedback; (2) an Evidence-Preserving Repair Controller that fuses repair history, knowledge context, and build artifacts; and (3) an automated Repair Orchestrator that invokes modular tools for failure localization and system-level repair in a closed-loop validation environment. We evaluate EvidenT on 219 real-world RISC-V package build failures. EvidenT repairs 118 packages (53.88%), outperforming state-of-the-art agentic baselines (20.55%) and direct LLM-based repair (1.83%). To assess architectural generality, we extend EvidenT to legacy ISAs by updating only ISA-specific knowledge context. Preliminary experiments achieve success rates of 41.77% on aarch64 and 46.99% on x86_64, demonstrating robustness across diverse hardware ecosystems.

Chenyu Zhao, Shenglin Zhang, Yihang Lin et al.

Software engineering agents are increasingly deployed in evaluable engineering environments, yet post-failure recovery remains costly, manual, and ad hoc. Existing systems expose traces or generate follow-up feedback, but they do not convert heterogeneous runtime evidence into grounded, bounded recovery guidance for a subsequent attempt. We present PROBE, a failure-anchored framework for structured recovery in software engineering agents. PROBE organizes failed-run telemetry into structured evidence, structured diagnosis, and bounded recovery guidance through a Telemetry Layer, a Diagnosis Layer, and a Guidance Gate. The Telemetry Layer preserves fine-grained runtime signals, the Diagnosis Layer fuses cross-signal evidence into grounded diagnoses, and the Guidance Gate produces diagnosis-derived guidance only when it is evidence-grounded, actionable, and within the scope of agent-side behavior. We evaluate PROBE across three settings: repository-level software repair, enterprise workflow recovery, and AIOps service mitigation. On 257 initially unresolved cases, PROBE achieves 65.37% Top-1 diagnosis accuracy and a 21.79% recovery rate, outperforming the strongest non-PROBE baseline by 43.58 and 12.45 percentage points. The results reveal a diagnosis-recovery gap: accurate diagnosis is necessary but insufficient unless translated into bounded guidance that a subsequent attempt can execute and verify. Beyond controlled evaluation, a Microsoft IcM prototype shows that PROBE can attach as a non-intrusive side channel to existing service-diagnosis workflows without changing the agent policy, toolset, or execution budget. These results suggest that telemetry-grounded, failure-anchored recovery can improve post-failure recoverability under realistic engineering constraints.

Zexin Wang, Changhua Pei, Minghua Ma et al.

Time series Anomaly Detection (AD) plays a crucial role for web systems. Various web systems rely on time series data to monitor and identify anomalies in real time, as well as to initiate diagnosis and remediation procedures. Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) have gained popularity in recent decades due to their superior de-noising capabilities, which are useful for anomaly detection. However, our study reveals that VAE-based methods face challenges in capturing long-periodic heterogeneous patterns and detailed short-periodic trends simultaneously. To address these challenges, we propose Frequency-enhanced Conditional Variational Autoencoder (FCVAE), a novel unsupervised AD method for univariate time series. To ensure an accurate AD, FCVAE exploits an innovative approach to concurrently integrate both the global and local frequency features into the condition of Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) to significantly increase the accuracy of reconstructing the normal data. Together with a carefully designed "target attention" mechanism, our approach allows the model to pick the most useful information from the frequency domain for better short-periodic trend construction. Our FCVAE has been evaluated on public datasets and a large-scale cloud system, and the results demonstrate that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods. This confirms the practical applicability of our approach in addressing the limitations of current VAE-based anomaly detection models.

Haotian Si, Jianhui Li, Changhua Pei et al.

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) has gained significant attention due to its real-world applications to improve the stability of modern software systems. However, there is no effective way to verify whether they can meet the requirements for real-world deployment. Firstly, current algorithms typically train a specific model for each time series. Maintaining such many models is impractical in a large-scale system with tens of thousands of curves. The performance of using merely one unified model to detect anomalies remains unknown. Secondly, most TSAD models are trained on the historical part of a time series and are tested on its future segment. In distributed systems, however, there are frequent system deployments and upgrades, with new, previously unseen time series emerging daily. The performance of testing newly incoming unseen time series on current TSAD algorithms remains unknown. Lastly, the assumptions of the evaluation metrics in existing benchmarks are far from practical demands. To solve the above-mentioned problems, we propose an industrial-grade benchmark TimeSeriesBench. We assess the performance of existing algorithms across more than 168 evaluation settings and provide comprehensive analysis for the future design of anomaly detection algorithms. An industrial dataset is also released along with TimeSeriesBench.

Yaxuan Kong, Yiyuan Yang, Shiyu Wang et al.

Understanding time series data is crucial for multiple real-world applications. While large language models (LLMs) show promise in time series tasks, current approaches often rely on numerical data alone, overlooking the multimodal nature of time-dependent information, such as textual descriptions, visual data, and audio signals. Moreover, these methods underutilize LLMs' reasoning capabilities, limiting the analysis to surface-level interpretations instead of deeper temporal and multimodal reasoning. In this position paper, we argue that multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) can enable more powerful and flexible reasoning for time series analysis, enhancing decision-making and real-world applications. We call on researchers and practitioners to leverage this potential by developing strategies that prioritize trust, interpretability, and robust reasoning in MLLMs. Lastly, we highlight key research directions, including novel reasoning paradigms, architectural innovations, and domain-specific applications, to advance time series reasoning with MLLMs.

Runzhou Wang, Shenglin Zhang, Wenwei Gu et al.

Microservice root cause localization is fundamentally challenged by the inherent heterogeneity of cloud-native systems, which encompasses diverse observability data and multiple system entities. Existing approaches typically focus on only one aspect of heterogeneity and thus fail to capture its full diagnostic value. In this work, we systematically examine the multifaceted role of heterogeneity within both microservice systems and the RCL process. This analysis motivates a deeper investigation into how entity-level distinctions and their asymmetric dependencies influence fault behavior. Our empirical analysis of two microservice benchmarks reveals that entity-level heterogeneity naturally gives rise to heterogeneous fault propagation, which is highly asymmetric and dominated by cross-layer interactions between services and hosts. In light of this, we propose NexusRCL, a semi-supervised framework that internalizes these propagation patterns by formalizing services and hosts as distinct node types within a heterogeneous graph. This design, coupled with an event-based abstraction mechanism, allows NexusRCL to effectively capture both data level and entity-level heterogeneity while minimizing labeling costs through active learning. Comprehensive evaluations on two industrial benchmark datasets demonstrate NexusRCL's superior performance, achieving improvements of up to 49.85\% in Top-1 accuracy (A@1) and 32.70\% in Average Top-5 accuracy (A@5) compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Quan Zhou, Changhua Pei, Fei Sun et al.

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) underpins real-time monitoring in cloud services and web systems, allowing rapid identification of anomalies to prevent costly failures. Most TSAD methods driven by forecasting models tend to overfit by emphasizing minor fluctuations. Our analysis reveals that effective TSAD should focus on modeling "normal" behavior through smooth local patterns. To achieve this, we reformulate time series modeling as approximating the series with smooth univariate functions. The local smoothness of each univariate function ensures that the fitted time series remains resilient against local disturbances. However, a direct KAN implementation proves susceptible to these disturbances due to the inherently localized characteristics of B-spline functions. We thus propose KAN-AD, replacing B-splines with truncated Fourier expansions and introducing a novel lightweight learning mechanism that emphasizes global patterns while staying robust to local disturbances. On four popular TSAD benchmarks, KAN-AD achieves an average 15% improvement in detection accuracy (with peaks exceeding 27%) over state-of-the-art baselines. Remarkably, it requires fewer than 1,000 trainable parameters, resulting in a 50% faster inference speed compared to the original KAN, demonstrating the approach's efficiency and practical viability.

Haotian Si, Changhua Pei, Jianhui Li et al.

Recent advances in lightweight time series forecasting models suggest the inherent simplicity of time series forecasting tasks. In this paper, we present CMoS, a super-lightweight time series forecasting model. Instead of learning the embedding of the shapes, CMoS directly models the spatial correlations between different time series chunks. Additionally, we introduce a Correlation Mixing technique that enables the model to capture diverse spatial correlations with minimal parameters, and an optional Periodicity Injection technique to ensure faster convergence. Despite utilizing as low as 1% of the lightweight model DLinear's parameters count, experimental results demonstrate that CMoS outperforms existing state-of-the-art models across multiple datasets. Furthermore, the learned weights of CMoS exhibit great interpretability, providing practitioners with valuable insights into temporal structures within specific application scenarios.

Yongqian Sun, Weihua Kuang, Chao Shen et al.

In modern online services, frequent software changes introduce significant risks. To tackle this challenge, we propose SCELM (Software Change Evaluation and Lifecycle Management), an end-to-end automated framework for software change management. SCELM aims to manage software changes efficiently and precisely, significantly reducing service failures and economic losses.

Shenglin Zhang, Ziang Chen, Zijing Que et al.

Log anomaly detection, which is critical for identifying system failures and preempting security breaches, detects irregular patterns within large volumes of log data, and impacts domains such as service reliability, performance optimization, and database log analysis. Modern log anomaly detection methods rely on training deep learning models on clean, anomaly-free log sequences. However, obtaining such clean log data requires costly and tedious human labeling, and existing automatic cleaning methods fail to fully integrate the specific characteristics and actual semantics of logs in their purification process. In this paper, we propose a cost-aware, rule-enhanced purification framework, LogPurge, that automatically selects a sufficient subset of normal log sequences from contamination log sequences to train a anomaly detection model. Our approach involves a two-stage filtering algorithm: In the first stage, we use a large language model (LLM) to remove clustered anomalous patterns and enhance system rules to improve LLM's understanding of system logs; in the second stage, we utilize a divide-and-conquer strategy that decomposes the remaining contaminated regions into smaller subproblems, allowing each to be effectively purified through the first stage procedure. Our experiments, conducted on two public datasets and one industrial dataset, show that our method significantly removes an average of 98.74% of anomalies while retaining 82.39% of normal samples. Compared to the latest unsupervised log sample selection algorithms, our method achieves F-1 score improvements of 35.7% and 84.11% on the public datasets, and an impressive 149.72% F-1 improvement on the private dataset, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach.

Yu Luo, Jiamin Jiang, Jingfei Feng et al.

Incident management (IM) is central to the reliability of large-scale cloud systems. Yet manual IM, where on-call engineers examine metrics, logs, and traces is labor-intensive and error-prone in the face of massive and heterogeneous observability data. Existing automated IM approaches often struggle to generalize across systems, provide limited interpretability, and incur high deployment costs, which hinders adoption in practice. In this paper, we present OpsAgent, a lightweight, self-evolving multi-agent system for IM that employs a training-free data processor to convert heterogeneous observability data into structured textual descriptions, along with a multi-agent collaboration framework that makes diagnostic inference transparent and auditable. To support continual capability growth, OpsAgent also introduces a dual self-evolution mechanism that integrates internal model updates with external experience accumulation, thereby closing the deployment loop. Comprehensive experiments on the OPENRCA benchmark demonstrate state-of-the-art performance and show that OpsAgent is generalizable, interpretable, cost-efficient, and self-evolving, making it a practically deployable and sustainable solution for long-term operation in real-world cloud systems.

Zexin Wang, Changhua Pei, Yang Liu et al.

Web service administrators must ensure the stability of multiple systems by promptly detecting anomalies in Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). Achieving the goal of "train once, infer across scenarios" remains a fundamental challenge for time series anomaly detection models. Beyond improving zero-shot generalization, such models must also flexibly handle sequences of varying lengths during inference, ranging from one hour to one week, without retraining. Conventional approaches rely on sliding-window encoding and self-supervised learning, which restrict inference to fixed-length inputs. Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable zero-shot capabilities across general domains. However, when applied to time series data, they face inherent limitations due to context length. To address this issue, we propose ViTs, a Vision-Language Model (VLM)-based framework that converts time series curves into visual representations. By rescaling time series images, temporal dependencies are preserved while maintaining a consistent input size, thereby enabling efficient processing of arbitrarily long sequences without context constraints. Training VLMs for this purpose introduces unique challenges, primarily due to the scarcity of aligned time series image-text data. To overcome this, we employ an evolutionary algorithm to automatically generate thousands of high-quality image-text pairs and design a three-stage training pipeline consisting of: (1) time series knowledge injection, (2) anomaly detection enhancement, and (3) anomaly reasoning refinement. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ViTs substantially enhance the ability of VLMs to understand and detect anomalies in time series data. All datasets and code will be publicly released at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ViTs-C484/.

Zexin Wang, Jingjing Li, Quan Zhou et al.

As the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) continue to advance, LLM-based agent systems offer advantages in flexibility and interpretability over traditional systems, garnering increasing attention. However, despite the widespread research interest and industrial application of agent systems, these systems, like their traditional counterparts, frequently encounter anomalies. These anomalies lead to instability and insecurity, hindering their further development. Therefore, a comprehensive and systematic approach to the operation and maintenance of agent systems is urgently needed. Unfortunately, current research on the operations of agent systems is sparse. To address this gap, we have undertaken a survey on agent system operations with the aim of establishing a clear framework for the field, defining the challenges, and facilitating further development. Specifically, this paper begins by systematically defining anomalies within agent systems, categorizing them into intra-agent anomalies and inter-agent anomalies. Next, we introduce a novel and comprehensive operational framework for agent systems, dubbed Agent System Operations (AgentOps). We provide detailed definitions and explanations of its four key stages: monitoring, anomaly detection, root cause analysis, and resolution.

Shengyuan Wang, Jie Feng, Tianhui Liu et al. · tsinghua

Large language models (LLMs) possess extensive world knowledge, including geospatial knowledge, which has been successfully applied to various geospatial tasks such as mobility prediction and social indicator prediction. However, LLMs often generate inaccurate geospatial knowledge, leading to geospatial hallucinations (incorrect or inconsistent representations of geospatial information) that compromise their reliability. While the phenomenon of general knowledge hallucination in LLMs has been widely studied, the systematic evaluation and mitigation of geospatial hallucinations remain largely unexplored. To address this gap, we propose a comprehensive evaluation framework for geospatial hallucinations, leveraging structured geospatial knowledge graphs for controlled assessment. Through extensive evaluation across 20 advanced LLMs, we uncover the hallucinations in their geospatial knowledge. Building on these insights, we introduce a dynamic factuality aligning method based on Kahneman-Tversky Optimization (KTO) to mitigate geospatial hallucinations in LLMs, leading to a performance improvement of over 29.6% on the proposed benchmark. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our benchmark and learning algorithm in enhancing the trustworthiness of LLMs in geospatial knowledge and reasoning tasks.

Zeyan Li, Junjie Chen, Yihao Chen et al.

Localizing root causes for multi-dimensional data is critical to ensure online service systems' reliability. When a fault occurs, only the measure values within specific attribute combinations are abnormal. Such attribute combinations are substantial clues to the underlying root causes and thus are called root causes of multidimensional data. This paper proposes a generic and robust root cause localization approach for multi-dimensional data, PSqueeze. We propose a generic property of root cause for multi-dimensional data, generalized ripple effect (GRE). Based on it, we propose a novel probabilistic cluster method and a robust heuristic search method. Moreover, we identify the importance of determining external root causes and propose an effective method for the first time in literature. Our experiments on two real-world datasets with 5400 faults show that the F1-score of PSqueeze outperforms baselines by 32.89%, while the localization time is around 10 seconds across all cases. The F1-score in determining external root causes of PSqueeze achieves 0.90. Furthermore, case studies in several production systems demonstrate that PSqueeze is helpful to fault diagnosis in the real world.

Yichen Zhu, Weibin Meng, Ying Liu et al.

UniLog: Deploy One Model and Specialize it for All Log Analysis Tasks

Wenxiao Chen, Xiaohui Nie, Mingliang Li et al.

To ensure robust and reliable classification results, OoD (out-of-distribution) indicators based on deep generative models are proposed recently and are shown to work well on small datasets. In this paper, we conduct the first large collection of benchmarks (containing 92 dataset pairs, which is 1 order of magnitude larger than previous ones) for existing OoD indicators and observe that none perform well. We thus advocate that a large collection of benchmarks is mandatory for evaluating OoD indicators. We propose a novel theoretical framework, DOI, for divergence-based Out-of-Distribution indicators (instead of traditional likelihood-based) in deep generative models. Following this framework, we further propose a simple and effective OoD detection algorithm: Single-shot Fine-tune. It significantly outperforms past works by 5~8 in AUROC, and its performance is close to optimal. In recent, the likelihood criterion is shown to be ineffective in detecting OoD. Single-shot Fine-tune proposes a novel fine-tune criterion to detect OoD, by whether the likelihood of the testing sample is improved after fine-tuning a well-trained model on it. Fine-tune criterion is a clear and easy-following criterion, which will lead the OoD domain into a new stage.

Haowen Xu, Wenxiao Chen, Jinlin Lai et al.

Using powerful posterior distributions is a popular approach to achieving better variational inference. However, recent works showed that the aggregated posterior may fail to match unit Gaussian prior, thus learning the prior becomes an alternative way to improve the lower-bound. In this paper, for the first time in the literature, we prove the necessity and effectiveness of learning the prior when aggregated posterior does not match unit Gaussian prior, analyze why this situation may happen, and propose a hypothesis that learning the prior may improve reconstruction loss, all of which are supported by our extensive experiment results. We show that using learned Real NVP prior and just one latent variable in VAE, we can achieve test NLL comparable to very deep state-of-the-art hierarchical VAE, outperforming many previous works with complex hierarchical VAE architectures.

Haowen Xu, Wenxiao Chen, Nengwen Zhao et al.

To ensure undisrupted business, large Internet companies need to closely monitor various KPIs (e.g., Page Views, number of online users, and number of orders) of its Web applications, to accurately detect anomalies and trigger timely troubleshooting/mitigation. However, anomaly detection for these seasonal KPIs with various patterns and data quality has been a great challenge, especially without labels. In this paper, we proposed Donut, an unsupervised anomaly detection algorithm based on VAE. Thanks to a few of our key techniques, Donut greatly outperforms a state-of-arts supervised ensemble approach and a baseline VAE approach, and its best F-scores range from 0.75 to 0.9 for the studied KPIs from a top global Internet company. We come up with a novel KDE interpretation of reconstruction for Donut, making it the first VAE-based anomaly detection algorithm with solid theoretical explanation.